PVG
Công ty Cổ phần Kinh doanh LPG Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.970
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 45.7%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Utilities peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −4.056th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.4%20th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
PVG’s Beneish M-Score is -0.8612 (89th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.47, indicating accounting measures are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved materially this year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak (Earnings Quality 9.1/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and low receivables and revenue quality, while solvency and fundamentals show contrasting strength (Altman Z-Score 4.64 — ‘‘safe zone’’; Piotroski F-Score 6/9). The audited statements do not meet any statutory loss tests for delisting and accumulated losses are not present.
- Beneish M-Score = -0.8612 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); PVG sits at the 89th percentile among Vietnamese peers, meaning its score is more aggressive than 89% of peers.
- Year-over-year M-Score change = +1.47 (the M-Score moved materially versus prior year; consecutive-year M-Scores have low autocorrelation, so the trajectory is an additional cue).
- DSRI = 1.2532 (days sales in receivables index; an increase suggests sales or receivables growth outpacing historical norms).
- GMI = 1.2647 (gross margin index; >1 indicates gross margin has deteriorated versus prior year).
- SGI = 1.2608 (sales growth index; elevated SGI implies rapid sales growth which can be associated with increased accounting complexity).
- TATA = 0.2107 (total accruals to total assets; positive and material accruals indicate reliance on accrual accounting rather than cash flows).
- Earnings Quality Score = 9.1/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 5.6/100 (measures of how reported profits convert to cash and the persistence/quality of revenue are very weak).
- Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = -4.05 (6th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials — profits are not converting into operating cash).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.4% of total assets (20th percentile), indicating presence of non-trade receivables/prepayments/loans that are not large in absolute terms but are below most peers' levels — requires checking composition.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.64 (places PVG in the Z 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance based on the Z model).
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (a neutral to reasonably healthy score on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals).
- AQI = 0.9820 and LVGI = 0.9654 (asset quality index and leverage index near or below 1, not showing dramatic asset deterioration or leverage worsening by Beneish components).
- DEPI = 0.8850 and SGAI = 0.7880 (depreciation and SG&A indices below 1 suggest no clear evidence of slowing depreciation or rising SG&A intensity to inflate margins).
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; audited statements do not meet any statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (amended) — these are facts about the published financials.
PVG is majority-controlled by Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam (GAS) with a 51.3% holding as of 2026-06-30; GAS is a listed state-associated parent that also controls several other listed subsidiaries. Top shareholder concentration is high (51.3% by GAS) with very small individual holdings otherwise, indicating group/control influence consistent with Vietnamese state-linked group structures.
- Compare the 2025 movement in trade receivables and 'receivables outside the trade cycle' line items to the revenue note and the related-party disclosures to identify composition (prepayments, loans, other long-term receivables).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported profit for FY2023–FY2025 in the cash flow statement and the management discussion to explain a 3-year cash conversion of -4.05 (check the components of working-capital changes and non-cash adjustments).
- Review the auditor’s report and the notes on accrual accounting policies (especially bad‑debt provisioning and revenue recognition) given TATA = 0.2107 and low receivables/revenue quality scores.
- Inspect the shareholder and related‑party schedules (parent/subsidiaries and transactions with GAS and other group companies) for intra‑group sales, transfers, loans or guarantees that could explain elevated DSRI = 1.2532 and SGI = 1.2608.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.44
- P/S
- 0.03
- ROE
- 2.9%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- EPS
- 368
- BVPS
- 12.639
- Gross Margin
- 6.7%
- Net Margin
- 0.2%
- D/E
- 0.04
- Current Ratio
- 1.21
- Rev Growth
- +26.1%
- Profit Growth
- +14.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 40.0M
- Charter Capital
- 400B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
- Company Type
- CT