Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 18.950
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 22.028
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.7737th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.4%22nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.335 (Vietnam peer percentile 83rd) with a year-over-year rise of +0.96, signalling more aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers and an upward trajectory in the manipulativeness signal; the M-Score components show elevated DSRI (1.1624), AQI (2.7995) and SGI (1.3310). Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: accruals quality is high (96.5/100) but revenue quality is nil (0.0/100) and receivables quality is weak (27.5/100). Solvency and operating-fund signals are healthier: Altman Z-Score 3.67 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.335 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to a US-calibrated threshold); Vietnam peer percentile = 83rd (company scores more aggressive than 83% of Vietnamese peers).
- Year-over-year M-Score change = +0.96 (measures change in the manipulativeness signal year-on-year; a sizeable upward move compared with low serial correlation).
- DSRI = 1.1624 (days sales receivable index; >1 can indicate revenue recognition/receivables growth versus sales).
- AQI = 2.7995 (asset quality index; >1 can indicate reclassification or capitalization shifts that raise noncurrent assets relative to sales).
- SGI = 1.3310 (sales growth index; >1 indicates sales growth which can pressure margin and accounting choices).
- Receivables quality = 27.5/100 (measures collectibility and concentration of receivables; this is weak).
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (measures sustainability and persistence of reported revenue; this is a concern).
- Margin quality = 10.7/100 (indicates volatility or weakening of margins).
- Vietnam cash conversion (3yr OCF / net profit) = 0.77, 37th percentile (measures extent profits convert to cash; below 1 and low percentile suggests profits are not fully cash-backed).
- Accruals quality = 96.5/100 (measures how much earnings are driven by accruals; high score indicates low unusual accruals — TATA = 0.0086, i.e. total accruals to assets ≈0.86%).
- Altman Z-Score = 3.67 (measures bankruptcy distance; value >2.99 is typically the ‘safe’ zone for non-financial firms).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of firm health; this is neutral rather than strongly negative).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.4% of total assets (22nd percentile) — the absolute share of long-term/non-trade receivables is low in magnitude even if the percentiles vs peers are mixed.
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (parent, excluding minority) is positive and parent net loss years = 0 (the statutory equity and loss indicators show no immediate statutory breach).
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) as amended) = none met (the published statements do not meet the exchange cancellation loss criteria).
Control is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam (GAS) holds 56.0% (control, disclosed 2026-06-30) and the company sits inside a listed state-linked group that also controls PGD (50.5%), PGS (35.3%), PVB (52.9%) and PVG (51.3%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set (director-deal registrations are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare FY2025 notes for ‘trade and other receivables’ and the related-party receivables schedule to quantify the composition of the 0.4% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the cash flow statement (operating cash flow) to profit to reproduce the 3-year cash conversion ratio = 0.77 and identify the main non-cash or timing items causing the shortfall.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible schedules and the note on reclassifications/capitalization to understand drivers of AQI = 2.7995 (asset quality index).
- Trace revenue recognition policies and the revenue note (including related-party sales or one-off transactions) to evaluate why revenue quality = 0.0/100 and DSRI = 1.1624.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.05
- P/S
- 0.14
- ROE
- 10.8%
- ROA
- 4.4%
- EPS
- 1.955
- BVPS
- 18.127
- Gross Margin
- 7.7%
- Net Margin
- 1.5%
- D/E
- 0.10
- Current Ratio
- 1.34
- Rev Growth
- +33.1%
- Profit Growth
- −24.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.20
- Div Yield
- 6.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 35.1M
- Charter Capital
- 351B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
- Company Type
- CT