Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 31.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 30.179
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.6511th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.2%14th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
SRC’s Beneish M‑Score is -0.863, which is above the US manipulation cutoff but in the 89th percentile against Vietnamese peers and rose by +1.04 year‑over‑year, indicating its accounting patterns are more aggressive than most local comparators and have moved materially this year. Earnings‑quality metrics are weak: an overall score of 13.3/100 driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables/revenue/margin quality (all 0.0/100), while the Altman Z‑Score of 2.54 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ and the Piotroski F‑Score is neutral at 5/9.
- Beneish M‑Score = -0.863 (US cutoff -1.78; SRC is in the 89th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and M‑Score increased by +1.04 YoY). The M‑Score measures a composite of eight accrual and performance ratios intended to flag earnings manipulation signals; the high peer percentile and positive YoY change show relative and directional concern in the Vietnamese context.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3970. DSRI > 1 suggests receivables or revenue recognition has grown faster than sales, a signal of potential revenue recognition timing differences.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.4384. GMI > 1 indicates deteriorating gross margins year‑over‑year, which can be a pressure that prompts aggressive accounting.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.6888. SGAI < 1 shows SG&A declined relative to sales; while this may be positive operationally, in combination with other indices it can reflect cost capitalization or timing shifts.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1582. Elevated accruals (positive) indicate earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash flows.
- Earnings‑quality component scores very weak: cash conversion 0.0/100, receivables quality 0.0/100, margin quality 0.0/100, revenue quality 0.0/100 — these individual 0/100 readings are specific flags that profits are poorly supported by cash, receivables behaviour, margins and revenue persistence.
- Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -1.65 (11th percentile). This low ratio shows profits have not translated into operating cash over three years relative to peers.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (14th percentile). Though small in absolute terms, the percentile shows SRC ranks low relative to peers in using non‑trade receivables structures; such items (prepayments, loans receivable, long‑term receivables) should be inspected in disclosures.
- Altman Z‑Score = 2.54 (grey zone). Z > 1.8 and < 3.0 places the company in an intermediate distance from distress, a signal to monitor liquidity/solvency metrics alongside accruals signals.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.7661. AQI < 1 suggests asset reclassification or write‑downs reduced non‑current asset capitalization relative to sales, which can be a conservative signal on asset recognition.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0198 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1607. DEPI close to 1 indicates depreciation policies were broadly stable year‑over‑year; LVGI > 1 signals rising leverage but the change is modest to date.
- SGAI < 1 (0.6888) can reflect improved operating efficiency or reduced discretionary SG&A rather than capitalization, depending on disclosures.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minorities) is positive; net parent profit did not report loss in the last three years — these are signs the company is not currently recording statutory losses or negative retained earnings.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cp Tập Đoàn Hoành Sơn holds 50.2% and Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holds 36.0%, together controlling 86.2% of shares. The presence of a large state‑associated institution (Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam) and a dominant corporate shareholder implies group/related‑party and policy influences are likely material to accounting and transaction decisions.
- Compare the 2025 movements in trade receivables and revenue in the notes to accounts: reconcile the DSRI (1.3970) with line items for accounts receivable, revenue by customer and aging schedules.
- Inspect the notes for 'prepayments', 'loans to related parties' and 'other long‑term receivables' to quantify the 0.2% of total assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and profit for FY2023–FY2025 in the cash flow statement and management commentary to understand the three‑year cash conversion ratio of -1.65.
- Review the fixed‑asset, depreciation and impairment notes to verify the AQI (0.7661) and DEPI (1.0198) drivers: check for reclassifications, disposals or impairment charges that reduced capitalized asset carrying amounts.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.03
- P/S
- 0.79
- ROE
- 4.3%
- ROA
- 1.9%
- EPS
- 877
- BVPS
- 20.217
- Gross Margin
- 9.9%
- Net Margin
- 1.7%
- D/E
- 0.83
- Current Ratio
- 1.25
- Rev Growth
- +40.1%
- Profit Growth
- −83.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 27.97
- Div Yield
- 1.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 36.5M
- Charter Capital
- 365B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Sub-industry
- Lốp xe
- Company Type
- CT