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SRC

Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Sao Vàng

VietnamCyclicalsÔ tô và phụ tùngHOSECT
31.500
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−4.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
31.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
30.179

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Ô tô và phụ tùng→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Ô tô và phụ tùng” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→68.63B
Fair EV/EBITDA→13.1x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→31.500
Calibrated value vs last close→−4.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
30.179
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA68.6 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7755496315305071,050421436437403411419397···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·323033364771104364347415842···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·4652353661621687871061081081041088172···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.70.75487115570.950.6612···
Net Inventories
·270250229323287191210278270234259278282···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·271251231327294194212278270234259278282···
Other current assets
·8343850.50.9131618310.7···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.60.6···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·566660716715728356386411421322125102128···
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·2987660.700.70.91100···
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·2987660.700.70.91100···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·46485245546281931029911291115···
Tangible fixed assets
·31323630425671656550596971···
Leased assets
·5131211927243445501840···
Intagible fixed assets
·10333344444444···
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·510509511510510135134135136326710···
Investments in associate companies
·505505505505505130130130130348811···
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·8888888880000···
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−4−5−3−3−4−4−4−3−3−2−2−2−1···
Other non-current assets
·33144149154158164175175180543···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·33144149154158164175175180532···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,3411,2091,3471,2451,2351,405807847857724536521525···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·774634903806803977425506514380204199230···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·621482621521515694142220222181166188214···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·47125633822227814358129131917391134···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·104373100117114943563···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·153152282285288283284285292199381117···
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·321331351381321341361434225410···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·567575443439433428381341343344332322295···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·567575443439433428381341343344332322295···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·281281281281281281281281281281200182182···
Other Reserves
·0000000000642···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·162117108100886653505039713633···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1241785559648247111224548870···
Budget sources and other funds
·0000000−0.20.3000−0.04···
Budget sources and other funds
·0000000−0.20.3000−0.04···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,3411,2091,3471,2451,2351,405807847857724536521525···
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000790000000···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·281281281281281281281281281281200182182···

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
13
Poor
Accrual Quality
45
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.86 · 89th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.04
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.397
GMI
1.438
AQI
0.766
SGI
1.416
DEPI
1.020
SGAI
0.689
TATA
0.158
LVGI
1.161

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−1.6511th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.2%14th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

SRC’s Beneish M‑Score is -0.863, which is above the US manipulation cutoff but in the 89th percentile against Vietnamese peers and rose by +1.04 year‑over‑year, indicating its accounting patterns are more aggressive than most local comparators and have moved materially this year. Earnings‑quality metrics are weak: an overall score of 13.3/100 driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables/revenue/margin quality (all 0.0/100), while the Altman Z‑Score of 2.54 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ and the Piotroski F‑Score is neutral at 5/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = -0.863 (US cutoff -1.78; SRC is in the 89th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and M‑Score increased by +1.04 YoY). The M‑Score measures a composite of eight accrual and performance ratios intended to flag earnings manipulation signals; the high peer percentile and positive YoY change show relative and directional concern in the Vietnamese context.
  • DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3970. DSRI > 1 suggests receivables or revenue recognition has grown faster than sales, a signal of potential revenue recognition timing differences.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.4384. GMI > 1 indicates deteriorating gross margins year‑over‑year, which can be a pressure that prompts aggressive accounting.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.6888. SGAI < 1 shows SG&A declined relative to sales; while this may be positive operationally, in combination with other indices it can reflect cost capitalization or timing shifts.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1582. Elevated accruals (positive) indicate earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash flows.
  • Earnings‑quality component scores very weak: cash conversion 0.0/100, receivables quality 0.0/100, margin quality 0.0/100, revenue quality 0.0/100 — these individual 0/100 readings are specific flags that profits are poorly supported by cash, receivables behaviour, margins and revenue persistence.
  • Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -1.65 (11th percentile). This low ratio shows profits have not translated into operating cash over three years relative to peers.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (14th percentile). Though small in absolute terms, the percentile shows SRC ranks low relative to peers in using non‑trade receivables structures; such items (prepayments, loans receivable, long‑term receivables) should be inspected in disclosures.
  • Altman Z‑Score = 2.54 (grey zone). Z > 1.8 and < 3.0 places the company in an intermediate distance from distress, a signal to monitor liquidity/solvency metrics alongside accruals signals.
Positive Signals
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.7661. AQI < 1 suggests asset reclassification or write‑downs reduced non‑current asset capitalization relative to sales, which can be a conservative signal on asset recognition.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0198 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1607. DEPI close to 1 indicates depreciation policies were broadly stable year‑over‑year; LVGI > 1 signals rising leverage but the change is modest to date.
  • SGAI < 1 (0.6888) can reflect improved operating efficiency or reduced discretionary SG&A rather than capitalization, depending on disclosures.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minorities) is positive; net parent profit did not report loss in the last three years — these are signs the company is not currently recording statutory losses or negative retained earnings.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cp Tập Đoàn Hoành Sơn holds 50.2% and Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holds 36.0%, together controlling 86.2% of shares. The presence of a large state‑associated institution (Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam) and a dominant corporate shareholder implies group/related‑party and policy influences are likely material to accounting and transaction decisions.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 movements in trade receivables and revenue in the notes to accounts: reconcile the DSRI (1.3970) with line items for accounts receivable, revenue by customer and aging schedules.
  • Inspect the notes for 'prepayments', 'loans to related parties' and 'other long‑term receivables' to quantify the 0.2% of total assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow and profit for FY2023–FY2025 in the cash flow statement and management commentary to understand the three‑year cash conversion ratio of -1.65.
  • Review the fixed‑asset, depreciation and impairment notes to verify the AQI (0.7661) and DEPI (1.0198) drivers: check for reclassifications, disposals or impairment charges that reduced capitalized asset carrying amounts.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.54
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.81
Positive
Composite
25
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.76×Interest Burden1.31×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover1.09×Leverage2.36=ROE4.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
+65.0%
Volatility
47.4%
Max Drawdown
−26.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
46.68P/E
P/B
2.03
P/S
0.79
ROE
4.3%
ROA
1.9%
EPS
877
BVPS
20.217
Gross Margin
9.9%
Net Margin
1.7%
D/E
0.83
Current Ratio
1.25
Rev Growth
+40.1%
Profit Growth
−83.8%
EV/EBITDA
27.97
Div Yield
1.5%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
36.5M
Charter Capital
365B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Industry (ICB L3)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Sub-industry
Lốp xe
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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