Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.449
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 30.0%95th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.74×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 3Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The forensic indicators show multiple accounting and financial-stress signals for PVL: a very high Beneish M-Score of 4.8543 (99th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) and a negative Altman Z-Score of -0.52 (in the distress zone). Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 44.6/100 driven by excellent accruals and receivables metrics (accruals quality 98.2/100; receivables quality 100.0/100) but extremely weak cash- and margin-related scores (cash conversion 0.0/100; margin quality 0.0/100; revenue quality 0.0/100). The company also shows persistent losses (net loss, parent, three consecutive years) and substantial non‑trade receivables (30.0% of total assets).
- Beneish M-Score = 4.8543 (measures probability of earnings manipulation using eight ratios). This is in the 99th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferable to Vietnam; ~28% of Vietnamese companies exceed it, so peer percentile and trend matter more than the raw cutoff.
- GMI = 10.0000 (Gross Margin Index measures deterioration in gross margin; values >1 suggest margin deterioration). An extreme value of 10 indicates a large reported gross margin deterioration year-over-year.
- SGI = 4.5497 (Sales Growth Index, measures sales growth; very high value indicates rapid revenue growth which can be associated with aggressive recognition).
- AQI = 1.0921 (Asset Quality Index, higher values indicate increases in non-current assets or intangible/other assets that can be associated with aggressive capitalization).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 30.0% of total assets (95th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). This includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — a large share of assets not arising from normal trade operations.
- Three consecutive years of net loss at parent level (FY2023–FY2025). The financials meet the published statutory-loss description (losses in each of the latest three years) though the UPCoM listing rules cited for delisting on HOSE/HNX do not apply to UPCoM.
- Accumulated losses = 0.74x paid-in capital (a high ratio of retained losses versus equity contributed).
- Altman Z-Score = -0.52 (distance-to-bankruptcy measure; a negative score places the company in the distress zone).
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a 3 indicates generally weak operational and balance-sheet improvement signals).
- Cash conversion component = 0.0/100 and TATA = 0.0044 (total accruals to total assets small but cash conversion metric failing suggests operating cash is weak relative to earnings).
- Accruals quality = 98.2/100 (measures quality of accruals; a high score indicates reported earnings are not driven by unusual accruals).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures how receivables behave relative to revenue; a perfect score indicates receivables dynamics are not inflating revenue recognition in the usual models).
- DSRI = 0.2376 (Days Sales in Receivables Index; value <1 can indicate receivables growing less than sales — here unusually low, which in combination with receivables-outside-trade-cycle suggests the receivables composition, not volume, is driving risk).
- DEPI = 0.1585 and SGAI = 0.0531 (Depreciation Index and SG&A Index are not indicating extreme upward pressure from those components compared with some other ratios in the M-Score).
- LVGI = 1.0196 (Leverage Index ~1.02, a small year-over-year increase in leverage rather than a dramatic jump).
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: Trịnh Quốc Khánh 11.1% and Nguyễn Việt Dũng 11.0%, with smaller institutional and affiliated holdings (top institutional 4.9%, SJS group 3.2%). Director-deal registrations for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 3 purchase registrations (1,056,500 shares) and 0 sale registrations, net registered volume +2.11% of shares outstanding — note these are registrations of intent filed with the exchange, not confirmed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 line items for 'Loans receivable', 'Other long-term receivables' and 'Prepayments to suppliers' in the balance sheet with the related-party note to identify how much of the 30.0% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle relates to related parties or non-operating counterparties.
- Reconcile the components of gross margin and the note on revenue recognition in FY2025 to understand the drivers of GMI = 10.0000 and SGI = 4.5497 (check sales growth schedule, segment note and revenue cut-offs).
- Review the statement of cash flows for operating cash flow and the notes on working capital to verify the cash-conversion issues (cash conversion = 0.0/100) and the small TATA = 0.0044 measured against net income.
- Confirm the accumulated losses and paid-in capital lines and the parent-company profit (loss) for the last three years in the audited financial statements to verify the 0.74x accumulated losses and the three consecutive years of parent net loss.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.73
- P/S
- 45.86
- ROE
- −1.6%
- ROA
- −1.2%
- EPS
- −48
- BVPS
- 2.894
- Gross Margin
- 1.2%
- Net Margin
- −104.9%
- D/E
- 0.01
- Current Ratio
- 1.29
- Rev Growth
- +355.0%
- Profit Growth
- +89.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 50.0M
- Charter Capital
- 500B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT