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PVL

Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc Dầu khí

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnUPCOMCT
2.100
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.6%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
2.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
2.449

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
2
Model Inputs
3
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→2.100
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
2.449
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)high risk: yes
Growth rate
Base cash flow
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7071102129160148174159267395421619606
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.23142651241817326421
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00.46539936001313
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·26243960677311497175369401305291
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·2323232438387072153334369276298
Net Inventories
·23232218181919274000271269
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·23232218181919274000271269
Other current assets
·21202020202314151521172831
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000001013
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·129130116280250251256298277664469231276
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·262748270.30.362722004444
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·262748270.30.360.090004444
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·818143421110.22729
Tangible fixed assets
·818143421110.22729
Intagible fixed assets
·0000000000150.020.04
Investment in properties
·3929120000000000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·131313204203205206227121122121125125
Investments in associate companies
·009202202202202220114114114114114
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·37372826242626262626262626
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−24−24−24−24−24−23−23−20−20−19−19−16−15
Goodwill
·000000000002833
Other non-current assets
·0.80.90.0110.050.050.52185540845
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.80.90.0110.050.040.4233116845
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1992012184104093994304575451,059890851882
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·555454156156163195203352739577513550
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·555454155155163192200275629466404192
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·10000000029362425
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·24444631381004582812184
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.1949,5000.10.90.90.73377110110109359
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·145147164254253236235254193321314337332
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·145147164254253236235254193321314337332
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·500500500500500500500500500500500500500
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·131313131313131313131377
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−368−366−348−260−260−277−278−259−320−192−199−175−181
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1992012184104093994304575451,059890851882
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·111111111111131300000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·500500500500500500500500500500500500500
Good will (Bn. VND)
·0000000015242400
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·0001.00.70.40000000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
45
Weak
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 4.85 · 99th pctile vs VN companies
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.238
GMI
10.000
AQI
1.092
SGI
4.550
DEPI
0.159
SGAI
0.053
TATA
0.004
LVGI
1.020

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
30.0%95th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.74×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
3Statutory test met
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The forensic indicators show multiple accounting and financial-stress signals for PVL: a very high Beneish M-Score of 4.8543 (99th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) and a negative Altman Z-Score of -0.52 (in the distress zone). Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 44.6/100 driven by excellent accruals and receivables metrics (accruals quality 98.2/100; receivables quality 100.0/100) but extremely weak cash- and margin-related scores (cash conversion 0.0/100; margin quality 0.0/100; revenue quality 0.0/100). The company also shows persistent losses (net loss, parent, three consecutive years) and substantial non‑trade receivables (30.0% of total assets).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 4.8543 (measures probability of earnings manipulation using eight ratios). This is in the 99th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferable to Vietnam; ~28% of Vietnamese companies exceed it, so peer percentile and trend matter more than the raw cutoff.
  • GMI = 10.0000 (Gross Margin Index measures deterioration in gross margin; values >1 suggest margin deterioration). An extreme value of 10 indicates a large reported gross margin deterioration year-over-year.
  • SGI = 4.5497 (Sales Growth Index, measures sales growth; very high value indicates rapid revenue growth which can be associated with aggressive recognition).
  • AQI = 1.0921 (Asset Quality Index, higher values indicate increases in non-current assets or intangible/other assets that can be associated with aggressive capitalization).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 30.0% of total assets (95th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). This includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — a large share of assets not arising from normal trade operations.
  • Three consecutive years of net loss at parent level (FY2023–FY2025). The financials meet the published statutory-loss description (losses in each of the latest three years) though the UPCoM listing rules cited for delisting on HOSE/HNX do not apply to UPCoM.
  • Accumulated losses = 0.74x paid-in capital (a high ratio of retained losses versus equity contributed).
  • Altman Z-Score = -0.52 (distance-to-bankruptcy measure; a negative score places the company in the distress zone).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a 3 indicates generally weak operational and balance-sheet improvement signals).
  • Cash conversion component = 0.0/100 and TATA = 0.0044 (total accruals to total assets small but cash conversion metric failing suggests operating cash is weak relative to earnings).
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 98.2/100 (measures quality of accruals; a high score indicates reported earnings are not driven by unusual accruals).
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures how receivables behave relative to revenue; a perfect score indicates receivables dynamics are not inflating revenue recognition in the usual models).
  • DSRI = 0.2376 (Days Sales in Receivables Index; value <1 can indicate receivables growing less than sales — here unusually low, which in combination with receivables-outside-trade-cycle suggests the receivables composition, not volume, is driving risk).
  • DEPI = 0.1585 and SGAI = 0.0531 (Depreciation Index and SG&A Index are not indicating extreme upward pressure from those components compared with some other ratios in the M-Score).
  • LVGI = 1.0196 (Leverage Index ~1.02, a small year-over-year increase in leverage rather than a dramatic jump).
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated among individuals: Trịnh Quốc Khánh 11.1% and Nguyễn Việt Dũng 11.0%, with smaller institutional and affiliated holdings (top institutional 4.9%, SJS group 3.2%). Director-deal registrations for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 3 purchase registrations (1,056,500 shares) and 0 sale registrations, net registered volume +2.11% of shares outstanding — note these are registrations of intent filed with the exchange, not confirmed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 line items for 'Loans receivable', 'Other long-term receivables' and 'Prepayments to suppliers' in the balance sheet with the related-party note to identify how much of the 30.0% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle relates to related parties or non-operating counterparties.
  • Reconcile the components of gross margin and the note on revenue recognition in FY2025 to understand the drivers of GMI = 10.0000 and SGI = 4.5497 (check sales growth schedule, segment note and revenue cut-offs).
  • Review the statement of cash flows for operating cash flow and the notes on working capital to verify the cash-conversion issues (cash conversion = 0.0/100) and the small TATA = 0.0044 measured against net income.
  • Confirm the accumulated losses and paid-in capital lines and the parent-company profit (loss) for the last three years in the audited financial statements to verify the 0.74x accumulated losses and the three consecutive years of parent net loss.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
−0.52
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.22
Negative
Composite
11
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden0.57×Op. Margin−1.83×Turnover0.01×Leverage1.38=ROE−1.7%
Price Risk
Momentum
−24.1%
Volatility
115.3%
Max Drawdown
−67.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
0.73
P/S
45.86
ROE
−1.6%
ROA
−1.2%
EPS
−48
BVPS
2.894
Gross Margin
1.2%
Net Margin
−104.9%
D/E
0.01
Current Ratio
1.29
Rev Growth
+355.0%
Profit Growth
+89.5%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
50.0M
Charter Capital
500B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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