Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 18.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 22.482
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 2.2478th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.0%62nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5275 (79th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.61, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers and a recent upward trajectory in the score. At the same time, the earnings-quality composite is high (75.7/100) with perfect marks on accruals, cash conversion and receivables, a strong Piotroski F-Score (8/9) and an Altman Z-Score of 2.06 (grey zone for bankruptcy distance). Statutory loss tests are not met in the published statements and there are two director-deal sale registrations totaling 1,233,732 shares (net registered -9.35% of shares outstanding).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5275 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The score is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits high among Vietnamese peers; the year-over-year change is +1.61, showing a notable recent move in the score (Beneish components can reflect growing earnings-management signals even if not decisive).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.9955. A GMI > 1 implies deteriorating gross margins year-over-year, which can increase pressure to manage earnings.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 2.2755. Very strong sales growth can create incentives for aggressive recognition; SGI is a component of the M-Score indicating rapid top-line expansion.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100. The earnings-quality decomposition flags revenue as the weakest area, suggesting concerns about the persistence or recognisability of reported revenue.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 2.24 (78th percentile). The company’s profits are not converting to cash as well as most peers, which is a concern for quality of reported profits.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100. The accruals-based measures show high quality of accrual reporting.
- Cash conversion (component score) = 100.0/100 in the earnings-quality breakdown (separate from the three-year cash-conversion check), indicating clean short-term operating cash metrics used in that score.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.0% of total assets (62nd percentile). Receivables and non-trade receivable exposure are modest relative to assets.
- Piotroski F-Score = 8/9. The company shows strong fundamental profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency signals by Piotroski criteria.
- TATA (total accruals to assets) = -0.0601. A small negative total-accruals ratio suggests accruals are not abnormally positive; LVGI = 0.9912 (level of gross assets index near 1) and DEPI = 1.0000 (depreciation index neutral) do not show obvious asset or depreciation manipulation.
Majority ownership by Tổng công ty Đầu tư Nước và Môi trường Việt Nam (60.0%) indicates concentrated state-related institutional control; the next largest holders are much smaller (3.6% and 0.5%). Director-deal filings between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 2 sale registrations totalling 1,233,732 shares (net registered -9.35% of shares outstanding) — these are registered intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare FY2025 revenue recognition notes and the revenue schedule to the 'Revenue quality' disclosure to see line-item drivers of the 0.0/100 revenue-quality score.
- Inspect the cash-flow statement and the cash-flow note for FY2023–FY2025 to reconcile operating cash flow versus reported net profit and confirm the components behind the 3-year cash-conversion metric = 2.24.
- Review the related-party note, prepayments and loans receivable schedules (often in other receivables or related-party disclosures) to verify the 4.0% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Check the audited equity and statutory notes for FY2025 to confirm that accumulated (undistributed) earnings are positive and that none of the statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (as amended) are met in the published statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.21
- P/S
- 0.42
- ROE
- 18.8%
- ROA
- 6.8%
- EPS
- 2.774
- BVPS
- 15.212
- Gross Margin
- 14.5%
- Net Margin
- 6.4%
- D/E
- 0.42
- Current Ratio
- 1.23
- Rev Growth
- +127.6%
- Profit Growth
- +36.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.71
- Div Yield
- 9.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 13.2M
- Charter Capital
- 132B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT