Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 1.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.427
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 46.7%98th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.40×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of aggressive or at-risk financial reporting: a Beneish M-Score of 4.3301 (98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +1.06) and an Altman Z-Score of 1.19 (distress zone). At the same time, accruals appear clean (TATA 0.0060; accruals-quality 97.6/100) and receivables-quality scores are high (100/100), while operating cash conversion is weak (three-year cash conversion 0.08, cash-conversion score 36.7/100).
- Beneish M-Score 4.3301 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); at the 98th Vietnam peer percentile this is high relative to local peers, and the YoY increase of +1.06 shows a material move in the score over one year.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 9.0801 (measures relative sales growth; an extremely high SGI indicates very rapid top-line growth that can stress controls and recognition policies).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.8063 (measures deterioration in gross margin; >1 suggests worsening margins year-over-year).
- Revenue-quality score 0.0/100 (measures whether reported revenue is supported by cash and sustainable operations): the score of 0.0 is an extreme flag on the quality of reported revenue.
- Cash-conversion three-year ratio = 0.08 (operating cash flow / net profit; measures how much profit is converted to cash) and ranked at the 24th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials — profits are not converting into cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 13.0% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables outside normal trade; 85th Vietnam percentile) — a large portion of assets are non-trade receivables/prepayments.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.19 (measures bankruptcy distance; falls in the distress zone), indicating higher financial distress risk by that model.
- Margin-quality score 37.7/100 and SGAI (SG&A Index) = 0.1024 (measures SG&A growth relative to sales): low margin-quality together with SG&A movement suggests margin pressure that may be obscured in reported results.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.0060 (measures the relative size of accruals); this very low number supports the accruals-quality score of 97.6/100, indicating reported earnings are not driven by large accrual adjustments.
- Receivables-quality score 100.0/100 (measures indicators like days sales outstanding and receivable collectibility patterns) — on the face of supplied metrics, trade receivables behavior appears strong.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamentals; a neutral score rather than a clear deterioration), and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — not in a capital-deficit position on the balance sheet.
- No statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (amended) are met in the published audited annual statements (a fact about the statements, not a prediction about any listing outcome).
Ownership is highly concentrated among individuals: Nguyễn Phúc Anh 24.8% and Chu Minh Châu 20.3% together control 45.1%, with three other individuals holding 5.7%, 5.0% and 4.9%. High concentration in a few individual shareholders increases control-related governance considerations; no director-deal registrations were provided in the data (note: registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange).
- Compare the line(s) for 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans and receivables' and 'other long-term receivables' in the notes to the balance sheet with the 13.0% of total assets figure to understand counterparty, related-party status and maturities.
- Reconcile profit before tax and net profit with operating cash flows in the cash-flow statement and the cash-flow note to verify the three-year cash-conversion pattern (operating cash flow / net profit = 0.08).
- Examine the revenue recognition note and any related-party revenue schedules for disclosures that explain the Revenue-quality score of 0.0 and the high SGI (9.0801).
- Review the auditor's report and any emphasis-of-matter or going-concern disclosure alongside the statutory loss schedules to confirm which (if any) loss thresholds are reported and to confirm that no Decree 155/245 statutory loss tests were met in the audited statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.29
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- 0.8%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- EPS
- 48
- BVPS
- 6.302
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 2.17
- Rev Growth
- −100.0%
- Profit Growth
- +113.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 36.9M
- Charter Capital
- 369B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT