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PV2

Công ty Cổ phần Genea Capital

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHNXCT
1.800
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+34.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
1.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
2.427

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.927
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.17%
Ke
11.17%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.17%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→1.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+34.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
2.427
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)13.17%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow1.8 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
11.2%2.4272.4272.4272.4272.427
12.2%2.4272.4272.4272.4272.427
13.2%2.4272.4272.4272.4272.427
14.2%2.3792.3792.3792.4112.427
15.2%2.3792.3792.3792.3792.379
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1101188218817511181615944696689·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·58569252366620.8255·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4956351310311203430360.39·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·14361711591043327127232657·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.70.80.70.70.50.60.50.5120.80.40.9·
Net Inventories
·111111176481316·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·2626262626262632312981316·
Other current assets
·0.70.60.50.50.50.50.60.030.61.0111·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000001·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·173141319203206209201182166164184186191·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·888312455550.080.080000·
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·132127168494949494849490490·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·50.20.712210.30.420.000.01124·
Tangible fixed assets
·50.20.712210.30.420.000.010.03·
Investment in properties
·0000055555312728·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·23211211173232272726222938·
Investments in associate companies
·30.80.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.501717·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·33332524243940383937333375·
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−14−13−13−14−8−8−9−12−12−12−11−21−53·
Other non-current assets
·0.070.090000.000.040.020.20.5000.2·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.070.090000.000.040.020.20.5000.2·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·283259400392381320282243225208253252280·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·5128156155140844620197323233·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·5128156155140844620197323233·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·451151151136804112142221.0·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·232231245236241236236223206201221220246·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·232231245236241236236223206201221220246·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·374374374374374374374374374374374374374·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·7777777777774·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−148−149−135−144−139−144−144−157−174−179−160−160−134·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·283259400392381320282243225208253252280·
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·374374374374374374374374374374374374374·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
27
Poor
Accrual Quality
71
Cash Conversion
0
Margin Stability
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2021
Highest band
M 4.33 · 98th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.06
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.169
GMI
1.806
AQI
0.830
SGI
9.080
DEPI
0.672
SGAI
0.102
TATA
0.006
LVGI
1.411

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
46.7%98th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.40×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows multiple accounting signals of aggressive or at-risk financial reporting: a Beneish M-Score of 4.3301 (98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +1.06) and an Altman Z-Score of 1.19 (distress zone). At the same time, accruals appear clean (TATA 0.0060; accruals-quality 97.6/100) and receivables-quality scores are high (100/100), while operating cash conversion is weak (three-year cash conversion 0.08, cash-conversion score 36.7/100).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 4.3301 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); at the 98th Vietnam peer percentile this is high relative to local peers, and the YoY increase of +1.06 shows a material move in the score over one year.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 9.0801 (measures relative sales growth; an extremely high SGI indicates very rapid top-line growth that can stress controls and recognition policies).
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.8063 (measures deterioration in gross margin; >1 suggests worsening margins year-over-year).
  • Revenue-quality score 0.0/100 (measures whether reported revenue is supported by cash and sustainable operations): the score of 0.0 is an extreme flag on the quality of reported revenue.
  • Cash-conversion three-year ratio = 0.08 (operating cash flow / net profit; measures how much profit is converted to cash) and ranked at the 24th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials — profits are not converting into cash.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 13.0% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables outside normal trade; 85th Vietnam percentile) — a large portion of assets are non-trade receivables/prepayments.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.19 (measures bankruptcy distance; falls in the distress zone), indicating higher financial distress risk by that model.
  • Margin-quality score 37.7/100 and SGAI (SG&A Index) = 0.1024 (measures SG&A growth relative to sales): low margin-quality together with SG&A movement suggests margin pressure that may be obscured in reported results.
Positive Signals
  • TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.0060 (measures the relative size of accruals); this very low number supports the accruals-quality score of 97.6/100, indicating reported earnings are not driven by large accrual adjustments.
  • Receivables-quality score 100.0/100 (measures indicators like days sales outstanding and receivable collectibility patterns) — on the face of supplied metrics, trade receivables behavior appears strong.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamentals; a neutral score rather than a clear deterioration), and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — not in a capital-deficit position on the balance sheet.
  • No statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (amended) are met in the published audited annual statements (a fact about the statements, not a prediction about any listing outcome).
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated among individuals: Nguyễn Phúc Anh 24.8% and Chu Minh Châu 20.3% together control 45.1%, with three other individuals holding 5.7%, 5.0% and 4.9%. High concentration in a few individual shareholders increases control-related governance considerations; no director-deal registrations were provided in the data (note: registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line(s) for 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans and receivables' and 'other long-term receivables' in the notes to the balance sheet with the 13.0% of total assets figure to understand counterparty, related-party status and maturities.
  • Reconcile profit before tax and net profit with operating cash flows in the cash-flow statement and the cash-flow note to verify the three-year cash-conversion pattern (operating cash flow / net profit = 0.08).
  • Examine the revenue recognition note and any related-party revenue schedules for disclosures that explain the Revenue-quality score of 0.0 and the high SGI (9.0801).
  • Review the auditor's report and any emphasis-of-matter or going-concern disclosure alongside the statutory loss schedules to confirm which (if any) loss thresholds are reported and to confirm that no Decree 155/245 statutory loss tests were met in the audited statements.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.74
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.91
Negative
Composite
46
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin−0.09×Turnover0.58×Leverage1.12=ROE−6.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
−25.9%
Volatility
64.6%
Max Drawdown
−39.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
37.14P/E
P/B
0.29
P/S
—
ROE
0.8%
ROA
0.7%
EPS
48
BVPS
6.302
Gross Margin
0.0%
Net Margin
0.0%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
2.17
Rev Growth
−100.0%
Profit Growth
+113.5%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
36.9M
Charter Capital
369B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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