SEB
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Điện Miền Trung
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 36.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 42.426
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.1049th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%9th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.5573 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.38, signalling that relative to Vietnamese peers its accounting profile is on the more aggressive side and that the trajectory recently moved. Key anomaly components include a high DSRI (1.7844) suggesting receivables/sales growth pressure, while total accruals (TATA = 0.0171) are small. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: accruals quality is strong (93.1/100) and margin quality is high (97.7/100), but receivables quality and revenue quality score 0.0/100. Altman Z-Score (26.81) and Piotroski F-Score (7/9) indicate a large distance from bankruptcy and generally solid fundamentals.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5573 (78th percentile v Vietnam peers). The M-Score combines eight ratios to flag earnings manipulation risk; this level and percentile show more aggressive accounting relative to most Vietnamese peers (note: US cutoff -1.78 is less applicable in Vietnam).
- Year-over-year M-Score change = +1.38. A positive change indicates the accounting profile moved toward greater aggressiveness this year (consecutive-year M-Scores have low autocorrelation, so the trajectory is an important secondary cue).
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.7844. This measures receivables relative to sales growth; a value >1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, consistent with pressure in revenue recognition or extended customer credit.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These scores indicate the models detect weak evidence that reported revenues and receivables are supported by standard trade activity and underlying cash-generating behaviour.
- Cash-conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.10 (49th percentile). While the ratio is above 1, its median percentile implies the company is mid-pack on converting reported profit into operating cash relative to Vietnamese non-financials; the Earnings Quality cash-conversion score (73.5/100) also leaves room for concern.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.9404 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9370. Both <1 suggest depreciation and leverage changes that could affect earnings composition and long-term asset consumption assumptions.
- Accruals quality = 93.1/100. This measures the portion of earnings attributable to accruals; a high score means recorded profits are not heavily driven by large accruals.
- Margin quality = 97.7/100. This indicates stable or sustainable gross/profit margin behaviour as captured by the metric.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0171. A low positive TATA suggests accruals are a small share of assets and not the primary driver of reported earnings.
- Altman Z-Score = 26.81 (safe zone). The Z-Score estimates distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings ratios; 26.81 places the company well within the 'safe' range.
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9. This score summarises nine signals of operational and financial improvement; 7 indicates generally strong fundamentals across profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency tests.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (9th percentile). The small amount of receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) reduces concern about large off-cycle receivable balances.
Ownership is concentrated: two individuals hold 25.2% and 25.0% respectively, and Tổng Công Ty Điện Lực Miền Trung (a large institutional/state-connected investor) holds 24.0%; together these three control a large block. Other institutional stakes include Bitexco Energy 11.5% and SJ Group 3.9%. Such concentration implies decisions and related-party exposures may reflect controlling shareholders' interests and group relationships under Vietnamese group/SON control norms.
- Compare FY2025 revenue lines and the revenue-recognition note: reconcile growth in sales with the trade receivables and ageing schedule to see whether sales increases align with customer collections.
- Compare the statement of cash flows (operating cash flow) for FY2023–FY2025 with reported net profit to validate the 3-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.10).
- Inspect the receivables and related-party notes for FY2025: identify any receivables classified as prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables (the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' line is 0.1% of total assets).
- Review the statutory-loss and equity notes in the audited annual statements to confirm that none of the Decree 155/2020 (art.120(1)(e), amended) delisting-trigger tests were met for FY2025 (the provided statement: none met).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.54
- P/S
- 4.41
- ROE
- 26.0%
- ROA
- 18.6%
- EPS
- 4.075
- BVPS
- 15.774
- Gross Margin
- 64.3%
- Net Margin
- 50.8%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 6.25
- Rev Growth
- +13.5%
- Profit Growth
- +11.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.18
- Div Yield
- 9.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 32.0M
- Charter Capital
- 320B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Company Type
- CT