PCT
Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Biển Global Pacific
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.523
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 5.5592nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%31st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.0116 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting signals more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers while the year-over-year change is +0.04. Earnings-quality sub-scores are strong overall (Earnings Quality 89.0/100) but the Altman Z-Score is 0.37 (in the distress zone for bankruptcy distance) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score 0.0116 (93rd percentile among Vietnamese peers): the score is well above the US -1.78 cutoff and ranks at the 93rd percentile versus Vietnamese companies, which signals relatively higher likelihood of aggressive accounting compared with peers; YoY change +0.04 shows accounting metrics moved in a more aggressive direction year-over-year.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.3256: measures deterioration in gross margins (values >1 indicate worsening margins year-over-year).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000: very high value (measures shift into intangible/non-current asset components that historically correlate with earnings manipulation signals).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.3602: elevated sales growth (measures revenue growth; rapid growth can be associated with pressure to manage earnings).
- Margin quality = 26.9/100: low sub-score (despite other high-quality metrics, margin quality indicates weak or volatile margins).
- Altman Z-Score = 0.37 (distress zone): measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and income components; 0.37 places the company in the distress zone on that metric.
- Earnings Quality 89.0/100 with Accruals quality 100/100: accrual-based metrics look clean (TATA = -0.1756, indicating negative total accruals to assets), and accruals-quality subscore is at the maximum.
- Cash conversion and Receivables quality both 100/100: Cash conversion sub-score 100 and Receivables quality 100 indicate operating cash-flow dynamics and receivables composition appear strong in the earnings-quality model.
- Revenue quality = 100/100 and DSRI = 0.1749: revenue and receivables-sales relationship (DSRI) are consistent with high revenue quality and low evidence of receivables-driven revenue recognition issues.
- LVGI = 1.0580 and DEPI = 0.8894: low to moderate signals from leverage and depreciation indices (LVGI slightly >1; DEPI <1 indicates no upward bias from slower depreciation).
- Vietnamese checks: no accumulated losses, owner's equity (excluding minority) positive, net parent profit not a loss in any of the last three years, and none of the statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are met — these are favourable factual indicators from the audited statements.
Ownership is highly concentrated among five individuals: Lương Diệu Linh 23.4%, Trần Vọng Phúc 20.1%, Trần Xuân Thành 19.6%, Trần Thị Thu Hà 18.3% and Nguyễn Thị Phượng 14.7%. Director-deal activity shows 0 sale registrations and 2 purchase registrations filed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (two traders, both registrations without a disclosed volume); these are registration filings with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the AQI drivers in the 2025 balance-sheet notes: review 'property, plant and equipment', 'intangible assets' and 'other non-current assets' schedules to quantify the components behind AQI = 10.0000.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and profit in the cash-flow statement and notes: verify the three-year operating cash flow / net profit trend that produced the cash-conversion metric 5.55 (92nd percentile).
- Examine the receivables and related-party disclosures: check the notes for 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans receivable' and 'amounts due from related parties' to confirm the 0.8% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Read the auditors' report and statutory schedules supporting the statutory loss tests: confirm the audited annual statements and the fact that none of the Decree 155/2020 (as amended) loss criteria are met for FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.11
- P/S
- 1.08
- ROE
- 8.1%
- ROA
- 2.2%
- EPS
- 692
- BVPS
- 8.892
- Gross Margin
- 28.3%
- Net Margin
- 7.5%
- D/E
- 2.79
- Current Ratio
- 0.33
- Rev Growth
- +36.0%
- Profit Growth
- −36.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.92
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 80.0M
- Charter Capital
- 800B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Dịch vụ vận tải
- Company Type
- CT