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Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây lắp Sông Đà

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT
1.300
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+3.0%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
1.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.338

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→6.68B
Fair EV/EBITDA→14.3x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→1.300
Calibrated value vs last close→+3.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.338
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA6.7 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·32167810313424535563120168
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·10.50.3114330.62364
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.002327
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·12137352181538333657103
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.60.611720.30.30.70.936141735
Net Inventories
·003336651313161819
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·003336651313161819
Other current assets
·0.050.10.050.40.50.41700.8781614
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000711
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·198209223234243253442245385360306217143
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000000.8144200
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000000.7141300
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·19720821923022023021251801909216142
Tangible fixed assets
·1972082192302202302093178189788
Intagible fixed assets
·0000004222222
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·000.70.70.70.70.70.7500,000500,000500,0000.70.7
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.7500,000500,000500,0000.70.7
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−0.7−0.7000000000−100,0000
Other non-current assets
·0.40.70.3000000.010.040.070.40.3
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.40.70.3000000.010.040.070.10.2
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·200211239311253284476269438415369336311
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·120120132184116136329127283254205172146
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3995841254859403889101869192
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2363453416191494338393930
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·000.00520013577310
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·812548596877289891941531188154
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·632547586776110871881531188154
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·8091107127136148147142155161165164165
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·8091107127136148147142155161165164165
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·160160160160160160160160160160160160160
Other Reserves
·0000000022222
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·111111111110.90.8
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−81−70−54−34−25−14−14−19−8−2212
Minority Interest
·000000000000.40.3
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·200211239311253284476269438415369336311
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000000.10.82300
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·160160160160160160160160160160160160160

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
52
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
22
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
8
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −2.94 · 17th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.60
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.998
GMI
0.926
AQI
0.595
SGI
0.896
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.195
TATA
−0.070
LVGI
0.901

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.3%18th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.51×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
5Statutory test met
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -2.9357 (17th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), with a year-over-year increase of +2.60, indicating an upward move on the manipulation-risk signal relative to local peers but an absolute score below the original US -1.78 cutoff. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: accruals and receivables quality score 100/100 each, but revenue quality is 0/100 and margin quality is 7.8/100. The Altman Z-Score is -0.81 (distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score: -2.9357, Vietnam peer percentile 17th — the score sits below the 1980s US -1.78 cutoff but ranks in the more aggressive accounting side relative to 83% of Vietnamese peers (17th percentile), and it moved upward by +2.60 year-over-year (a material trajectory signal).
  • Earnings-quality: Revenue quality 0.0/100 and Margin quality 7.8/100 — these very low scores indicate weak reported top-line persistence and poor margin stability in the accounting-period measures used.
  • Altman Z-Score: -0.81 — the company is in the 'distress' zone by the Altman Z model, indicating limited distance from bankruptcy under that metric.
  • Three-year parent net loss: Parent recorded net losses in 5 consecutive years up to FY2025 and the audited statements show losses in each of the latest 3 years — the financials meet the statutory 3-year loss criterion used by exchanges for delisting on HOSE/HNX (note: the company trades on UPCoM, where that listing rule does not apply).
  • Accumulated losses: 0.51x paid-in capital — retained losses equal about 51% of paid-in capital, a material erosion of accumulated equity compared with peers.
  • Cash conversion and related cash signals: Cash-conversion component of the Earnings Quality Score is 21.8/100 (weak), and TATA (total accruals) is -0.0704 — these indicate operating cash generation and accrual patterns that are concerning compared with the accruals-quality headline but warrant closer inspection of cash flows.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality: 100.0/100 — the accruals component scores at the maximum, suggesting few aggregate accrual-based distortions according to the applied metrics.
  • Receivables quality: 100.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle: 0.3% of total assets (18th percentile) — receivables that sit outside the trade cycle are small in absolute and relative terms versus Vietnamese peers, reducing a common channel for revenue manipulation.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index): 0.9982 and SGI (Sales Growth Index): 0.8960 — receivables growth roughly matches or slightly underperforms sales growth, and sales are not accelerating unusually, which lowers one typical manipulation pressure.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index): 0.9257 and DEPI (Depreciation Index): 1.0000 — gross margins have not deteriorated per the index (GMI <1) and depreciation practices are not showing obvious softening per DEPI, consistent with less aggressive fixed-asset accounting shifts.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated among individuals: the top five named shareholders together hold about 41.9% (Nguyễn Thúy Nga 11.5%, Bùi Kim Thanh 10.2%, Nguyễn Phương Anh 9.1%, Nguyễn Bảo Ngọc 5.9%, Nguyễn Thục Anh 5.2%). Director-deal activity in 2025–10–30 to 2026–10–30 shows 2 sale registrations (one registrant; 112,500 shares) and 7 purchase registrations (three registrants; seven without disclosed volume) — these are exchange-registered intentions, not confirmed executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line(s) for 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet and related-party notes to the 0.3% of total assets figure for receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow (cash flow from operations) in the FY2025 cash-flow statement with reported profit to validate the Cash-conversion score (21.8/100) and the TATA accruals figure of -0.0704.
  • Examine the income-statement and auditors' notes for FY2021–FY2025 to confirm the sequence of five consecutive parent net losses and the audited statement disclosure that the company showed losses in each of the latest three years (the statutory-loss test condition referenced).
  • Check the statement of changes in equity and the 'Accumulated losses' or retained-earnings note to verify the accumulated losses equal 0.51x paid-in capital and any explanations for capital injections or restructurings.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
−0.81
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.60
Negative
Composite
16
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin−0.98×Turnover0.06×Leverage2.49=ROE−13.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
−27.8%
Volatility
77.3%
Max Drawdown
−42.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
0.26
P/S
1.84
ROE
−12.9%
ROA
−5.4%
EPS
−692
BVPS
5.019
Gross Margin
−19.6%
Net Margin
−97.9%
D/E
1.07
Current Ratio
0.06
Rev Growth
−10.4%
Profit Growth
+29.9%
EV/EBITDA
12.94
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
16.0M
Charter Capital
160B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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