Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 1.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 1.338
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%18th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.51×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 5Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -2.9357 (17th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), with a year-over-year increase of +2.60, indicating an upward move on the manipulation-risk signal relative to local peers but an absolute score below the original US -1.78 cutoff. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: accruals and receivables quality score 100/100 each, but revenue quality is 0/100 and margin quality is 7.8/100. The Altman Z-Score is -0.81 (distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score: -2.9357, Vietnam peer percentile 17th — the score sits below the 1980s US -1.78 cutoff but ranks in the more aggressive accounting side relative to 83% of Vietnamese peers (17th percentile), and it moved upward by +2.60 year-over-year (a material trajectory signal).
- Earnings-quality: Revenue quality 0.0/100 and Margin quality 7.8/100 — these very low scores indicate weak reported top-line persistence and poor margin stability in the accounting-period measures used.
- Altman Z-Score: -0.81 — the company is in the 'distress' zone by the Altman Z model, indicating limited distance from bankruptcy under that metric.
- Three-year parent net loss: Parent recorded net losses in 5 consecutive years up to FY2025 and the audited statements show losses in each of the latest 3 years — the financials meet the statutory 3-year loss criterion used by exchanges for delisting on HOSE/HNX (note: the company trades on UPCoM, where that listing rule does not apply).
- Accumulated losses: 0.51x paid-in capital — retained losses equal about 51% of paid-in capital, a material erosion of accumulated equity compared with peers.
- Cash conversion and related cash signals: Cash-conversion component of the Earnings Quality Score is 21.8/100 (weak), and TATA (total accruals) is -0.0704 — these indicate operating cash generation and accrual patterns that are concerning compared with the accruals-quality headline but warrant closer inspection of cash flows.
- Accruals quality: 100.0/100 — the accruals component scores at the maximum, suggesting few aggregate accrual-based distortions according to the applied metrics.
- Receivables quality: 100.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle: 0.3% of total assets (18th percentile) — receivables that sit outside the trade cycle are small in absolute and relative terms versus Vietnamese peers, reducing a common channel for revenue manipulation.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index): 0.9982 and SGI (Sales Growth Index): 0.8960 — receivables growth roughly matches or slightly underperforms sales growth, and sales are not accelerating unusually, which lowers one typical manipulation pressure.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index): 0.9257 and DEPI (Depreciation Index): 1.0000 — gross margins have not deteriorated per the index (GMI <1) and depreciation practices are not showing obvious softening per DEPI, consistent with less aggressive fixed-asset accounting shifts.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: the top five named shareholders together hold about 41.9% (Nguyễn Thúy Nga 11.5%, Bùi Kim Thanh 10.2%, Nguyễn Phương Anh 9.1%, Nguyễn Bảo Ngọc 5.9%, Nguyễn Thục Anh 5.2%). Director-deal activity in 2025–10–30 to 2026–10–30 shows 2 sale registrations (one registrant; 112,500 shares) and 7 purchase registrations (three registrants; seven without disclosed volume) — these are exchange-registered intentions, not confirmed executed trades.
- Compare the line(s) for 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet and related-party notes to the 0.3% of total assets figure for receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow (cash flow from operations) in the FY2025 cash-flow statement with reported profit to validate the Cash-conversion score (21.8/100) and the TATA accruals figure of -0.0704.
- Examine the income-statement and auditors' notes for FY2021–FY2025 to confirm the sequence of five consecutive parent net losses and the audited statement disclosure that the company showed losses in each of the latest three years (the statutory-loss test condition referenced).
- Check the statement of changes in equity and the 'Accumulated losses' or retained-earnings note to verify the accumulated losses equal 0.51x paid-in capital and any explanations for capital injections or restructurings.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.26
- P/S
- 1.84
- ROE
- −12.9%
- ROA
- −5.4%
- EPS
- −692
- BVPS
- 5.019
- Gross Margin
- −19.6%
- Net Margin
- −97.9%
- D/E
- 1.07
- Current Ratio
- 0.06
- Rev Growth
- −10.4%
- Profit Growth
- +29.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 12.94
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 16.0M
- Charter Capital
- 160B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT