Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.697
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.9274th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%2nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.71×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M‑Score is -1.1303 (82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers), with a year‑over‑year increase of +3.15, signalling that its accounting metrics are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved materially year‑on‑year. Earnings‑quality metrics are weak (Earnings Quality 8.9/100) with very poor cash conversion and receivables/revenue quality (0.0–0.5/100), while solvency distance is strong (Altman Z‑Score 11.01); fundamentals are weak by Piotroski (3/9).
- Beneish M‑Score -1.1303 (82nd Vietnam percentile; YoY change +3.15): the M‑Score combines eight ratios to screen for earnings manipulation risk; the high percentile indicates more aggressive accounting versus most Vietnamese listed peers and the notable YoY increase shows recent movement in those ratios.
- DSRI 2.5865: Days' sales receivable index >1 (and large at 2.5865) measures abnormal growth of receivables relative to sales and can signal revenue recognition or collection timing issues.
- TATA 0.1923: total accruals to total assets of 0.1923 measures the extent of accrual accounting vs cash; a positive, sizeable TATA indicates reliance on accruals (earnings not yet converted to cash).
- SGAI 1.0907: selling, general & administrative expenses index >1 shows SG&A growing faster than sales, which can be used to manage margins or hide expenses.
- Earnings Quality 8.9/100 with component failures: accruals quality 35.4/100, cash conversion 0.0/100, receivables quality 0.0/100, margin quality 0.0/100, revenue quality 0.5/100 — these low scores indicate poor apparent convertibility of reported profits into cash and anomalies in receivables and reported revenue.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 4.2% of total assets (65th percentile): a material share of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or long‑term receivables rather than trade receivables, which raises reliance on non‑trade balances.
- Consecutive net loss at parent (two years to FY2021) and accumulated losses 0.62x paid‑in capital: recurring losses and accumulated deficits relative to capital are accounting‑level signs of stress on retained earnings and capital continuity.
- Piotroski F‑Score 3/9: this low score indicates weak profitability, weak operating cash flow relative to net income or other deteriorations in balance sheet or income statement fundamentals.
- Altman Z‑Score 11.01: the Z‑Score is well into the 'safe' zone, measuring distance to financial distress using liquidity, profitability and leverage inputs; this suggests low bankruptcy risk on the published financials.
- AQI 1.1005 and LVGI 0.9318: accrual quality index slightly >1 and leverage index <1; AQI modestly elevated but LVGI <1 indicates leverage has not increased (or has decreased) year‑on‑year according to the Beneish subcomponents.
- GMI 0.2439 and DEPI 0.2605: gross‑margin index <<1 indicates reported gross margin improved year‑on‑year, and DEPI <<1 indicates depreciation expense (rate) changes consistent with lower apparent incentive to lengthen asset lives; these metrics can reflect real operational improvements rather than manipulation.
Ownership is somewhat concentrated: an individual, Nguyễn Đình Việt, holds 18.6%, with a related listed company PVR at 7.0% and several institutional/ brokerage stakes (3.9%, 3.8%, 2.8%). Concentrated insider ownership can increase single‑party influence on related‑party transactions and accounting policy choices; there are no director‑deal registrations provided in the data.
- Compare the line‑item and note breakdown of 'receivables' and 'other receivables' in the audited financial statements for FY2021: isolate trade receivables, prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long‑term receivables to reconcile the 4.2% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile profit (parent level) to operating cash flows in the cash flow statement for FY2020 and FY2021 to verify the cash conversion shortfall reflected in the 0.0/100 cash conversion score and the TATA of 0.1923.
- Review the accumulated losses and paid‑in capital disclosure/schedule to confirm the 0.62× ratio and the audited statement of changes in equity showing retained earnings/accumulated deficits.
- Inspect related‑party transaction notes (sales/purchases, loans, guarantees) and the schedule of receivables/payables by counterparty to check whether non‑trade receivables or prepayments relate to insiders, major shareholders or group companies.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.35
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- −1.1%
- ROA
- −1.1%
- EPS
- −70
- BVPS
- 6.240
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 16.10
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 10.9M
- Charter Capital
- 109B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT