Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 8.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.706
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1725th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.2%14th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.65×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals of elevated earnings-quality risk: a Beneish M-Score of 1.0497 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) indicates more aggressive accounting relative to peers, with a year-over-year M-Score change of -4.71. Complementary flags include a very low Earnings-Quality Score of 22.7/100 (especially accruals quality 10.8/100 and cash conversion 0.0/100), an Altman Z-Score of -1.68 (distress zone), and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
- Beneish M-Score 1.0497 (94th percentile among Vietnamese peers): the M-Score aggregates eight ratios that indicate earnings manipulation risk; this level places the company high versus the VN peer group even though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly applicable.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 4.4081: measures sales growth; a high SGI means very rapid revenue growth year-over-year, which can stress recognition/collectibility controls.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.0912: measures the proportion of non-current and intangible assets relative to total assets; an AQI >1 suggests rising asset capitalisation or slower write-offs.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.3188: measures accrual intensity; a TATA of 0.3188 indicates material accruals relative to assets, consistent with the low accruals-quality score (10.8/100).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0286: measures increase in leverage; >1 shows rising leverage year-on-year.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 23.0% of total assets (94th percentile): a large portion of assets are prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables rather than trade receivables, which can obscure true working-capital dynamics.
- Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (Earnings-Quality components): indicates operating cash flow generation is weak relative to reported earnings.
- Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100: measures that reported profits and revenue have low observable quality by the applied metrics.
- Altman Z-Score = -1.68 (distress zone): this score measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and income variables; a negative score sits in the distress zone.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: a low F-Score indicates weak fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency).
- Accumulated losses = 0.91x paid-in capital: retained losses approaching paid-in capital show prior deficit history (per the FY2020 check).
- Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): six sale registrations (four registrants; 698,000 shares; three without a volume specified) and nine purchase registrations (three registrants; nine without a volume): these are registered intentions disclosed with the exchange, not executed trades.
- DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 0.2861: measures change in receivables relative to sales; a DSRI well below 1 typically indicates receivables did not grow faster than sales in the period measured.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0000: measures change in depreciation policy; a DEPI of 1.0 suggests no material change in depreciation rates between the two years assessed.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100: by the applied metric, trade receivables that relate to core operations score well.
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive: indicates the consolidated equity position is not negative despite accumulated losses in the past.
Ownership is highly concentrated among individuals: five named individuals hold large stakes (Nguyễn Viết Lịch 21.0%, Trương Khắc Tâm 14.7%, Nguyễn Việt Dũng 13.3%, Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Tú 11.5%, Trịnh Thị Quyên 11.0%). This concentrated, largely individual ownership structure may correspond to group-control dynamics typical in Vietnamese listed firms.
- Compare the line items for 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans receivable' and 'other long-term receivables' in the FY2020 balance sheet and related-party note to substantiate the 23.0% of total assets figure.
- Reconcile the consolidated cash-flow from operations with reported net income and the 'total accruals' computation to verify the TATA = 0.3188 and the cash conversion = 0.0/100 result.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation note to confirm DEPI = 1.0000 (check for changes in useful lives, residuals, or new capitalisations that could affect AQI = 1.0912).
- Review the statement of changes in equity and the retained-earnings (accumulated losses) line to confirm accumulated losses = 0.91x paid-in capital and the parent net-loss occurrence (one consecutive year up to FY2020).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.27
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- 18.4%
- ROA
- 9.0%
- EPS
- 593
- BVPS
- 3.519
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 0.83
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.0M
- Charter Capital
- 50.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT