GDW
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Gia Định
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 31.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 36.966
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 21 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.2555th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.4%42nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals for GDW show elevated indicators of receivable- and revenue-related anomalies: a Beneish M-Score of -0.5118 (91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +1.66) driven mainly by a high DSRI (2.4090) and AQI (3.2902). At the same time, cash- and accrual-related measures look strong (Accruals quality 100/100, Cash conversion 100/100; Altman Z-Score 4.01), and there are no statutory loss triggers or accumulated losses in the published statements.
- Beneish M-Score -0.5118 (91st percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +1.66). The M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals relative to peers; the high peer percentile and positive YoY change indicate accounting metrics moving toward more aggressive patterns versus Vietnam peers.
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 2.4090. DSRI measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value >1 indicates receivables have grown faster than sales and can signal revenue recognition or collection issues.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 3.2902. AQI measures increases in non-current or unusual assets (prepayments, long-term receivables, capitalized costs); a value well above 1 suggests rising asset-side items that can be used to shift expenses off the income statement.
- Receivables quality score = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 21.6/100. These component scores point to weak revenue and receivable quality despite strong accrual and cash indicators.
- LVGI (Leverage Index for gross margin or related growth) = 1.2468 and DSRI/AQI combination. The combination of elevated AQI and LVGI together with the large DSRI suggests receivable/prepayment or non-trade receivable growth that is out of step with other operating metrics.
- Accruals quality 100.0/100 and Cash conversion 100.0/100. These indicate reported profits are being converted into cash and that accrual-based earnings metrics are not showing internal inconsistency.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = -0.0341. A small negative TATA suggests limited total accruals relative to assets in the period measured.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0010 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9756. SGI close to 1 implies stable sales growth; GMI <1 indicates gross margins have slightly improved rather than deteriorated year-over-year.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.01 (safe zone). This measures statutory bankruptcy distance and places GDW in a zone historically associated with low short-term distress probability.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9. This is a neutral-to-favorable indicator of fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency).
Ownership is highly concentrated: state/ institutional investors hold the majority—Tổng Công ty Cấp nước Sài Gòn 51.2%, Công ty TNHH Nước Sạch Ree 20.1%, and Ngân hàng TNHH MTV Số Vikki 10.0%—with a small individual stake (Hồ Lê Minh 3.6%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (no registered insider transactions noted).
- Compare the change in trade receivables and the DSRI driver: read the notes to the 2025 balance sheet for trade receivables and the receivables aging schedule to reconcile the DSRI = 2.4090 with reported sales.
- Inspect the ‘Other receivables / Long-term receivables / Prepayments’ line and related-party disclosures in FY2025 to account for the AQI = 3.2902 and the 1.4% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile cash flow from operating activities to net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the management discussion to verify the cash conversion (3-year OCF/Net profit = 1.25) and the Cash conversion quality 100/100.
- Review revenue recognition policies and significant contracts (sales contracts, progress billing, or construction/service contracts) in the revenue note to assess why Revenue quality scores are low (21.6/100) while margins and accrual metrics appear healthy.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.61
- P/S
- 0.45
- ROE
- 21.4%
- ROA
- 12.7%
- EPS
- 4.239
- BVPS
- 19.749
- Gross Margin
- 40.0%
- Net Margin
- 6.0%
- D/E
- 0.02
- Current Ratio
- 0.85
- Rev Growth
- +0.1%
- Profit Growth
- +0.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.07
- Div Yield
- 9.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 9.5M
- Charter Capital
- 95.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Nước
- Company Type
- CT