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Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Trung An

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtNước & Khí đốtUPCOMCT
21.300
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
21.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
24.749

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The closing price is too old for comparison.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.820
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend4.66%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→1.050
Payout ratio→62.5%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→21.300
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
24.749
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate4.66%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share1.050dps source: eventspayout ratio: 62.53
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·166124137128123·14015216125319669
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·5253462349·42532491536
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·203030150·000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·7827507161·908911817114519
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.10.10.0400.08·0.040.090.040.10.20.2
Net Inventories
·141181410·81018713512
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·151291511·91018713512
Other current assets
·34443·0.40.10120.72
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000·000000.6
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·71191319·7577914
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.60.60.0800·000000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.60.60.0800·000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·6791011·7557814
Tangible fixed assets
·66788·6546713
Intagible fixed assets
·0.41233·0.70.20.610.90.6
Other non-current assets
·04028·0020.410
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·04028·0020.410
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·173135147141142·14715816826020583
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·10667807680·839610720114428
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·10667807680·839610720114428
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·42221·0.03220.1572
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·6768666562·646261606155
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·6768666562·646261606155
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·5050505050·505050505047
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·77666·655552
Other Reserves
·0.60.60.60.60.6·0.60.60.60.60.60
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·911985·765456
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·173135147141142·14715816826020583
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·5050505050·505050505047

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
24
Poor
Accrual Quality
76
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
44
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.03 · 87th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −1.36
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.653
GMI
0.956
AQI
0.107
SGI
1.109
DEPI
1.228
SGAI
1.065
TATA
0.061
LVGI
1.243

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
2.1177th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.4%21st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.0259 (Vietnam peer percentile 87th), with a year-over-year move of -1.36, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have shifted materially this year. Complementary flags include a very high DSRI (2.6528) and elevated DEPI (1.2282) and LVGI (1.2435), while earnings-quality sub-scores show very weak cash conversion, receivables and revenue quality (each 0.0/100) and an overall Earnings Quality Score of 23.8/100. By contrast, accruals quality is relatively good (75.6/100), Altman Z-Score is 2.73 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is weak at 3/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.0259 (Vietnam peer percentile 87th): the absolute score is above the US-based -1.78 cutoff, but the 87th percentile vs Vietnamese peers and the YoY change of -1.36 show a significant relative shift in the company’s accounting behaviour.
  • Days’ Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 2.6528: this measures whether receivables (and revenue recognition) are growing faster than sales; a DSRI >1 can indicate collecting slower or revenue being recognized ahead of collections.
  • DEPI = 1.2282 (days’ depreciation index): measures whether depreciation expense has fallen relative to prior-year asset balances; >1 can signal slowing depreciation or changes in useful lives/estimates that inflate profit.
  • LVGI = 1.2435 (leverage index): measures leverage growth; >1 indicates rising leverage which can pressure profit and cashflows.
  • Earnings Quality Score 23.8/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100: these quantify very weak operating cash conversion and weak quality of receivables and reported revenue.
  • Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 2.11 (76th percentile): the company is in the higher end of Vietnamese peers for low cash conversion (i.e., profit less converted to cash).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: the firm shows weak fundamental signals (profitability/liquidity/operating improvement tests).
  • Director-deal registrations: net registered volume -5.50% of shares outstanding (one sale registration for 275,000 shares in the 12 months to 2026-10-30). Registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not confirmed trades, but the net registered sale volume is material relative to free float.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 75.6/100: this score indicates relatively clean or lower-risk accrual patterns by the accruals metric compared with many peers.
  • AQI = 0.1073 (asset quality index low): lower AQI suggests fewer write-ups of capitalized items or fewer unusual asset-quality shifts being flagged by the Beneish components.
  • SGI = 1.1086 (sales growth index moderate): sales grew about 10.86% year-over-year; moderate growth reduces some low-quality growth concerns compared with very high SGI cases.
  • No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive: the statutory balance-sheet measures show no historical equity deficit and the parent has not reported net loss in the latest year (0 years of parent net loss up to FY2025).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.4% of total assets (21st percentile): low proportion of prepayments/loans/long-term receivables relative to assets versus peers, which reduces one source of off-cycle receivable risk.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Cấp nước Sài Gòn holds 65.0%, with two other large holders at 14.5% (Hồ Lê Minh) and 10.3% (Công Ty TNHH Thương Mại N.T.P). The largest holder is a state-affiliated water company (group control), indicating tight controlling ownership and potential intra-group and related-party transactions commonly seen in Vietnamese listed groups.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the company’s FY2025 operating cash flow (CFO) to net profit in the cash-flow note and the consolidated statement of cash flows to reproduce the three-year cash-conversion ratio cited (2.11).
  • Reconcile trade receivables and the ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ line in the notes: inspect the detailed receivables schedule and ageing and the related-party receivables/prepayments sub-notes to confirm composition of the 0.4% of total assets.
  • Review the fixed-asset and depreciation note: check useful lives, recent revaluations or changes in depreciation method to understand drivers of DEPI = 1.2282 and whether depreciation expense changed materially year-over-year.
  • Examine the related-party transactions and loans/prepayments schedules for FY2025 for any intra-group financing, prepayments to suppliers or long-term receivable items that could affect revenue/receivable quality and the high DSRI (2.6528).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.73
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.48
Positive
Composite
34
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.75×Interest Burden1.08×Op. Margin0.04×Turnover1.47×Leverage2.59=ROE12.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
−16.1%
Volatility
63.7%
Max Drawdown
−66.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.69P/E
P/B
1.59
P/S
0.42
ROE
12.4%
ROA
5.4%
EPS
1.679
BVPS
13.363
Gross Margin
12.0%
Net Margin
3.3%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
1.56
Rev Growth
+10.9%
Profit Growth
+6.3%
EV/EBITDA
2.89
Div Yield
7.5%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
5.0M
Charter Capital
50.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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