TDM
Công ty Cổ phần Nước Thủ Dầu Một
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 59.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 63.646
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 45.9%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Utilities peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.4462nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.8%76th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.3944 (81st percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.01, indicating accounting aggressiveness is higher than most domestic peers and has moved materially year-on-year. Specific earnings-quality measures show acute receivables and revenue concerns (Receivables quality 0.0/100; Revenue quality 0.0/100; DSRI 1.8318, AQI 1.2613) while solvency appears comfortable (Altman Z-Score 6.07) and accruals themselves look relatively clean (Accruals quality 91.7/100).
- High Beneish peer percentile: M-Score -1.3944 at the 81st Vietnam-peer percentile — the score is above many domestic peers and rose by +2.01 year-over-year (the YoY movement indicates the accounting profile changed noticeably).
- Days-Sales-Receivables Index (DSRI) = 1.8318 — this measures receivables growth relative to sales; a DSRI well above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales (consistent with weak receivables and revenue quality scores).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 7.8% of total assets (76th percentile among VN non-financials) — this line captures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is relatively large versus peers.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — the scoring indicates the numbers for sales and receivables contain the weakest signals in the earnings-quality model.
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9 — weak fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operational efficiency) are not strongly supportive.
- Cash conversion components: Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.44 (62nd percentile) and Earnings Quality Score cash-conversion subscore 53.3/100 — profits are not converting to cash as strongly as many peers.
- Accruals quality = 91.7/100 and TATA (total accruals) = 0.0206 — accrual magnitudes and accrual-based distortions appear limited by the accrual-quality metric.
- Altman Z-Score = 6.07 (safe zone) — the Z-Score indicates distance from bankruptcy in the classic financial-stress metric.
- SGI = 0.9297 and SG&A Index (SGAI) = 1.1930 — sales growth is below 1 (modest/negative growth) which reduces pressure to aggressively inflate revenue; SGA spending rose modestly but not extreme.
- DEPI = 1.0635 and LVGI = 1.4291 provide mixed signals on depreciation policy and leverage/asset growth, but do not by themselves indicate extreme accounting manipulation.
Top ownership is moderately concentrated among institutions: Vietcap Securities 14.0%, Quỳnh Phúc 7.0%, N.T.P trading entity 6.3%, plus an individual at 5.0%. Director-deal disclosures show 24 purchase registrations and 0 sale registrations (17 registrants; 5,074,904 shares registered; 11 registrations without a volume) — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the year-on-year change in trade receivables and the notes on 'other long-term receivables / loans receivable' in the FY2025 audited notes to explain the DSRI = 1.8318 and the 7.8% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile revenue line items and the revenue recognition note (contracts, timing, returns) with the revenue-quality score of 0.0/100 and the SGI = 0.9297 to see whether revenue composition or timing changed in FY2025.
- Review the cash-flow statement and the notes to operating cash flows for FY2023–FY2025 to validate the 3-year cash-conversion ratio = 1.44 and the cash-conversion subscore (53.3/100).
- Inspect related-party schedules and the schedule of prepayments to suppliers in the notes to identify the components of the 7.8% receivables-outside-the-cycle figure and any large balances with group entities.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.77
- P/S
- 14.15
- ROE
- 8.2%
- ROA
- 6.5%
- EPS
- 1.889
- BVPS
- 23.266
- Gross Margin
- 28.6%
- Net Margin
- 41.5%
- D/E
- 0.26
- Current Ratio
- 1.66
- Rev Growth
- −7.0%
- Profit Growth
- +2.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 32.01
- Div Yield
- 2.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 122M
- Charter Capital
- 1,222B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Nước
- Company Type
- CT