Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 25.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 25.739
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 3.2486th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.7%29th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.1905 with an 85th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and a year-over-year rise of +1.76, indicating accounting measures that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and a recent upward trajectory in the score. Company-specific signals are mixed: excellent Piotroski fundamentals (9/9) and strong accruals/cash-conversion metrics, but weak receivables, margin and revenue-quality signals; Altman Z-Score is 1.71 (the distress zone).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.1905 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns); Vietnam peer percentile = 85th (this company scores more aggressively than 85% of Vietnamese peers).
- M-Score year-over-year change = +1.76 (measures change in the composite manipulation signal; the rise indicates the accounting profile has shifted toward more aggressive values compared with prior year).
- DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 2.7403 (measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value well above 1 suggests receivables have grown faster than revenue).
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index) = 1.3104 (measures growth in SG&A relative to sales; >1 indicates SG&A rising faster than sales).
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores: Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 25.1/100 (these scores measure deterioration in receivable-related quality, margin stability and revenue persistence).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.71 (measures distance to bankruptcy; 1.71 sits in the 'distress' zone and implies relatively low buffer versus financial distress).
- Cash-conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 3.24 (86th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; low conversion into cash when profit is present is a concern—here the ratio indicates profit has not translated into proportionate operating cash flows over 3 years).
- Piotroski F-Score = 9/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency; a top score indicates strong reported fundamentals across those measures).
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores: Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and Cash conversion = 100.0/100 (these measure the quality of accruals and short-term cash conversion; both perfect scores indicate reported profits are not being driven by aggressive accruals and that recent cash metrics are strong on the specific tests used).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0645 (measures net accruals relative to assets; a small negative value indicates net accruals are modest rather than large positive accruals).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.0542 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.9867 (AQI slightly >1 suggests modest uptick in non-current asset intensity; LVGI <1 indicates leverage did not increase markedly according to the index).
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9190 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9209 (DEPI <1 implies reported depreciation rates have increased or useful lives shortened; GMI <1 indicates gross margins improved rather than deteriorated according to the index).
Control is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Viglacera (VGC) holds 51.0% (control, disclosed 2026-06-30). Other top holders: VIX 13.4%, three individuals with 5.5%, 4.5% and 4.0%. The company sits in a listed group with multiple subsidiaries (several >50% owned by VGC and some with 20%+ stakes), which introduces typical group-related related-party and intra-group reporting considerations under VAS.
- Compare FY2025 note(s) on trade receivables and 'other receivables' to reconcile the DSRI and the receivables-quality score—specifically check ageing schedules and related-party breakdowns.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and parent net profit in the consolidated cash-flow note to validate the three-year cash-conversion ratio (3.24) and explain any timing differences or non-cash items.
- Inspect the related-party transactions and intercompany balances (schedules/notes) with VGC and the other listed group companies to identify prepayments, loans or transfers that could affect receivables, revenue recognition or margins.
- Examine the statutory audit opinion and the line items referenced by Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) (as amended) to confirm that none of the statutory loss tests were met in the published FY2025 audited financial statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 3.06
- P/S
- 0.86
- ROE
- 11.5%
- ROA
- 3.5%
- EPS
- 1.068
- BVPS
- 9.469
- Gross Margin
- 10.1%
- Net Margin
- 3.2%
- D/E
- 1.52
- Current Ratio
- 0.97
- Rev Growth
- +8.3%
- Profit Growth
- +40.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.72
- Div Yield
- 2.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 79.8M
- Charter Capital
- 798B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT