Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 26.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 27.283
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 5 Mar 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 2.9784th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.1%49th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
TLT's Beneish M-Score is -0.2192 (Vietnam peer percentile: 92nd), indicating its combination of accrual and revenue signals is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly applicable; the M-Score rose by +3.07 year-over-year. Key red signals include a very high DSRI of 3.3774 (days-sales/receivables index) and weak cash conversion (three-year operating cash / net profit = 2.97, 84th percentile), while other metrics show mixed evidence: accruals (TATA = 0.0299) and accruals-quality (88.0/100) look strong, Altman Z-Score is 2.58 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- Beneish DSRI = 3.3774 — measures receivables growth relative to sales; a high DSRI can indicate sales recognized ahead of cash collection or growing receivables outpacing revenue.
- Beneish M-Score = -0.2192 with Vietnam peer percentile = 92nd and YoY change = +3.07 — the company ranks in the top decile for aggressive accounting vs Vietnamese peers and the M-Score moved materially year-over-year (the percentile and positive trajectory are meaningful in the Vietnamese context).
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores: overall Earnings Quality = 31.5/100; Cash conversion = 38.1/100; Receivables quality = 0.0/100; Margin quality = 0.0/100; Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these indicate concerns about the convertibility of reported profits into cash and weak signals around revenue and margin sustainability.
- Three-year cash-conversion = 2.97 (84th percentile among VN non-financials) — operating cash flow is low relative to reported profits, which is consistent with poor cash conversion of earnings.
- DEPI = 1.0958 — depreciation index >1 measures a slowdown in depreciation rate (or changes in useful lives/estimates) that can inflate reported profits relative to economic wear-and-tear.
- TATA = 0.0299 and Accruals quality = 88.0/100 — total accruals are small and accruals-quality is high, which suggests reported profits are not heavily driven by large accruals in the period measured.
- GMI = 0.8548 (<1) — the gross margin index below 1 indicates gross margins have improved year-over-year, which reduces one class of earnings deterioration signal in Beneish's framework.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.58 (grey zone) — not in the distress cutoff, indicating moderate distance from the usual bankruptcy thresholds used in the Z-Score model.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 — a neutral-to-somewhat-healthy fundamental score reflecting mixed improvements in profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency.
Control is concentrated: VGC (Tổng Công ty Viglacera) holds 51.1% (control, disclosed 2026-03-02). The same listed parent controls or significantly influences several other listed companies (DAC, DSG, HLY, VHL, VIH, VIM, VIT, VTS), which indicates TLT sits inside a larger Viglacera group. Top shareholders also include individuals with 15.5% and 13.3%; there are no accumulated losses and owner's equity (ex-minority) is positive.
- Compare the growth in trade receivables and 'other receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet and the notes to revenue recognition to reconcile the DSRI = 3.3774 (check the sales vs receivables schedules).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash-flow statement and the management discussion to explain the three-year cash-conversion = 2.97 (operating cash / net profit).
- Inspect the fixed-asset note for changes in depreciation rates, useful lives, or revaluations that explain DEPI = 1.0958 and check the related depreciation expense and capex schedules.
- Review related-party transactions, prepayments and long-term receivables notes to verify the composition of receivables outside the trade cycle (reported 2.1% of total assets) and any group balances with VGC or sister entities.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.81
- P/S
- 0.28
- ROE
- 21.7%
- ROA
- 6.0%
- EPS
- 3.036
- BVPS
- 14.648
- Gross Margin
- 9.0%
- Net Margin
- 3.2%
- D/E
- 1.63
- Current Ratio
- 1.12
- Rev Growth
- +5.4%
- Profit Growth
- +69.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.62
- Div Yield
- 5.7%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 7.0M
- Charter Capital
- 69.9B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT