Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 11.220
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.5611th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.0%74th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The Beneish M-Score is -1.4121, above the US -1.78 cutoff but in the 81st percentile versus Vietnamese peers and up +1.64 year-over-year, indicating a comparatively more aggressive accounting profile in Vietnam and a recent move in the score. Earnings-quality component scores are weak: overall Earnings Quality 15.4/100 with Cash conversion, Receivables quality and Revenue quality at 0/100; Altman Z-Score is 2.02 (the grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.4121 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns); Vietnam peer percentile = 81st (this company scores more aggressively than 81% of Vietnamese peers) and Year-over-year change = +1.64 (the accounting profile has moved materially compared with last year).
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.3740 (measures abnormal growth in receivables relative to sales; >1 suggests receivables rising faster than sales).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1664 (measures accrual-based earnings; a relatively high positive number indicates profits driven by accruals rather than cash).
- Earnings Quality = 15.4/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (measures show poor conversion of reported profit into cash and weak receivables quality).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -1.56 (11th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; low implies profit is not turning into operating cash).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 7.0% of total assets (74th percentile; indicates non-trade items such as prepayments, loans to related parties or long-term receivables are material).
- Altman Z-Score = 2.02 (measures distance to bankruptcy; the grey zone implies limited cushion compared with healthy firms).
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 1.0493 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.0721 (both >1; SGA rising relative to sales and gross margins deteriorating vs prior year, pressure on core profitability).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.8186 (measures change in non-earning assets; <1 can indicate improved asset quality or lower capitalisation of costs).
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9518 (measures change in depreciation policies; <1 suggests depreciation expense rose relative to prior year, not that depreciation was relaxed to inflate profits).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0442 (measures sales growth; modest growth rather than extreme expansion).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1372 (measures change in leverage; indicates some increase in leverage but not extreme), and Accumulated losses: none / Owner's equity (parent) positive (the company is not reporting accumulated statutory losses and equity is positive).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral fundamentals; not strongly deteriorated on the typical nine-profitability/liquidity/efficiency checks).
VGC (Tổng Công ty Viglacera) holds 51.0% and therefore has control; several other listed subsidiaries are held by the same parent. Top individual shareholders hold small stakes (largest individual 4.7%). The company is majority-controlled by a large listed state-affiliated group, which can affect related-party activity, intra-group transactions and reporting choices under Vietnamese practice.
- Compare receivables outside the trade cycle (7.0% of total assets) with the related-party note and the schedule of loans/advances to see counterparty, terms and maturities.
- Reconcile operating cash flows to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes to explain the three-year cash conversion = -1.56 (check non-cash items and changes in working capital).
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation notes to verify the components behind DEPI = 0.9518 and any changes in useful lives or residual values.
- Review the parent/group related-party transaction disclosures and intercompany balances (given VGC’s 51.0% control) for the nature and scale of intra-group transfers, prepayments or guarantees.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.55
- P/S
- 0.19
- ROE
- 5.5%
- ROA
- 2.7%
- EPS
- 1.037
- BVPS
- 18.853
- Gross Margin
- 14.2%
- Net Margin
- 1.9%
- D/E
- 0.73
- Current Ratio
- 1.60
- Rev Growth
- +4.4%
- Profit Growth
- +30.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 13.16
- Div Yield
- 6.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1.3M
- Charter Capital
- 12.5B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Khai khoáng
- Sub-industry
- Khai khoáng
- Company Type
- CT