THW
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Tân Hòa
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 17.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 19.190
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 21 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.3528th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.5%53rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.4364, which by the original US cutoff (-1.78) would not signal manipulation, but versus Vietnamese peers it sits at the 91st percentile and moved up by +2.64 year-over-year, indicating its earnings-quality indicators have become more aggressive relative to local peers. Key component signals are a high DSRI (1.9538, indicating possible sales/receivables divergence), elevated AQI (1.4308, accruals quality), a low TATA (0.1857, low total accruals relative to assets), a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 (poor fundamental health), but an Altman Z-Score of 3.14 (in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance).
- High DSRI = 1.9538: The Days' Sales in Receivables Index measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value near 2 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales.
- Elevated AQI = 1.4308: The Accruals Quality Index measures accrual-based distortions; a value >1 indicates accrual patterns that differ from peers and may reduce earnings quality.
- Large Vietnam peer percentile for M-Score = 91st percentile and YoY change +2.64: Although the raw M-Score (-0.4364) is above the US manipulation cutoff, the high local percentile and substantial year-over-year rise show accounting behaviour has grown more aggressive versus Vietnamese peers.
- Very low cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.35, 28th percentile: Only 35% of reported profits converted to operating cash over three years, indicating profits are not translating into cash.
- Poor Piotroski F-Score = 2/9: Measures nine fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 2 indicates weak operational and financial fundamentals year-to-year.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.14 (safe zone): The Z-Score combines profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity to estimate bankruptcy distance; 3.14 places the company in the safe zone for the score's intended interpretation.
- DEPI = 0.9870 and SGAI = 0.9578 near 1.0: DEPI (depreciation index) below 1 and SGAI (selling, general & admin index) slightly below 1 show no large unusual increases in depreciation rates or SG&A expense growth relative to sales.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.5% of total assets (53rd percentile): The portion of receivables attributable to prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables is moderate and near-median among Vietnamese peers.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (ex-minority) positive; parent reported no net loss in the most recent year: These statutory balance-sheet facts show retained earnings/equity are not in deficit as of FY2025.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Cấp nước Sài Gòn holds 65.0% (state-owned enterprise institution), with three individuals holding 10.4%, 4.3% and small residual stakes. Director-deal activity shows 1 purchase registration (100,000 shares) and no sale registrations in the past year; these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the 2025 movements in trade receivables and revenue in the notes to revenue recognition to reconcile the DSRI (1.9538) with the receivables ageing and provision schedules.
- Inspect the statement of cash flows and the notes to reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit over the last three years to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio (0.35).
- Review the schedules for ‘loans and receivables’ and ‘prepayments’ in the FY2025 notes to confirm the composition that makes up the 2.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Check the consolidated equity and retained earnings lines and the auditor’s report to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that owner’s equity excluding minority interest is positive.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.41
- P/S
- 0.42
- ROE
- 16.7%
- ROA
- 8.1%
- EPS
- 2.087
- BVPS
- 12.596
- Gross Margin
- 17.0%
- Net Margin
- 5.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.75
- Rev Growth
- +15.9%
- Profit Growth
- +9.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.98
- Div Yield
- 3.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.0M
- Charter Capital
- 50.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Nước
- Company Type
- CT