NST

• Beneish M‑Score = -1.0237 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios). The score sits at the 87th percentile among Vietnamese peers, meaning the company registers more aggressive accounting signals than most local peers.
• Year‑over‑year M‑Score change = -0.64. Although M‑Scores have low year‑to‑year correlation, the change is a secondary cue that accounting metrics shifted materially in the latest period.
• Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.2574 (measures relative growth in receivables versus sales). DSRI > 1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, a potential early signal of revenue recognition or collection timing differences.
• Total Accruals to Assets (TATA) = 0.3055 (measures accruals relative to assets). A low/low‑signed TATA here indicates a large accrual component to reported earnings (weak accruals quality = 12.6/100), consistent with the low cash conversion metric.
• Leverage/Asset growth index (LVGI) = 1.5791 (measures asset growth relative to sales). LVGI well above 1 implies assets grew materially faster than sales, which can reflect prepayments, related‑party receivables or capitalisation policy changes.
• Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3‑year) = -2.49 (9th percentile among Vietnamese peers). This is a strong signal that reported profits have not translated into operating cash flow over three years.
• Piotroski F‑Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength). A score of 3 indicates relatively weak operating and balance‑sheet fundamentals in the period under review.

• Altman Z‑Score = 3.05 (measures distance to bankruptcy; value > 2.99 is in the safe zone). This indicates the company is not close to bankruptcy by the Z‑Score framework.
• Revenue quality = 63.9/100 (measures likelihood that reported revenue is backed by cash and is sustainable). This is a relatively strong score within the earnings‑quality components.
• Margin quality = 35.8/100 and Accumulated losses: none. Reported margins show some quality and the company has no accumulated undistributed losses (equity attributable to owners is positive).
• Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (14th percentile). Outside‑trade receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, long‑term receivables) are small in amount relative to assets, which lowers a specific receivable‑related concern.

The shareholder base is highly concentrated with state tobacco entities: Tổng Công ty Thuốc lá Việt Nam (57.7%), Thuốc lá Thăng Long (6.5%), Thuốc lá Sài Gòn (6.1%), plus other institutional holders. This dominance by state‑linked and group entities implies group and policy objectives likely influence accounting and related‑party flows. Director‑deal registrations show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (one registrant; one without volume) during 2025‑10‑30 to 2026‑10‑30 (registrations, not executed trades).

• Compare the 2025 schedule/note for trade receivables and the related‑party receivables note to verify the composition of the DSRI increase (look for ageing tables and related‑party detail).
• Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash flow statement and the accruals note (calculate the components of TATA from the statements) to validate the low cash conversion ratio over three years.
• Inspect the fixed assets, prepayments and other long‑term receivables notes for FY2025 to identify sources of asset growth that feed LVGI (capital expenditure vs. prepaid suppliers vs. loans to related parties).
• Review the related‑party transactions note (and any group guarantees or intra‑group balances) to see if significant flows to state or group entities explain receivable or prepayment balances.