Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 11.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.416
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.499th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.2%14th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows accounting signals of elevated accrual-based earnings manipulation risk versus Vietnamese peers (Beneish M‑Score = -1.0237; 87th Vietnam percentile) with a meaningful year‑over‑year increase in the M‑Score signal (change = -0.64). Several component measures point to specific areas of concern (DSRI 1.2574, TATA 0.3055, LVGI 1.5791) while other indicators are mixed to positive (Altman Z‑Score 3.05 in the safe zone; Revenue quality 63.9/100; no accumulated statutory losses and statutory loss tests not met).
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.0237 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios). The score sits at the 87th percentile among Vietnamese peers, meaning the company registers more aggressive accounting signals than most local peers.
- Year‑over‑year M‑Score change = -0.64. Although M‑Scores have low year‑to‑year correlation, the change is a secondary cue that accounting metrics shifted materially in the latest period.
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.2574 (measures relative growth in receivables versus sales). DSRI > 1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, a potential early signal of revenue recognition or collection timing differences.
- Total Accruals to Assets (TATA) = 0.3055 (measures accruals relative to assets). A low/low‑signed TATA here indicates a large accrual component to reported earnings (weak accruals quality = 12.6/100), consistent with the low cash conversion metric.
- Leverage/Asset growth index (LVGI) = 1.5791 (measures asset growth relative to sales). LVGI well above 1 implies assets grew materially faster than sales, which can reflect prepayments, related‑party receivables or capitalisation policy changes.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3‑year) = -2.49 (9th percentile among Vietnamese peers). This is a strong signal that reported profits have not translated into operating cash flow over three years.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength). A score of 3 indicates relatively weak operating and balance‑sheet fundamentals in the period under review.
- Altman Z‑Score = 3.05 (measures distance to bankruptcy; value > 2.99 is in the safe zone). This indicates the company is not close to bankruptcy by the Z‑Score framework.
- Revenue quality = 63.9/100 (measures likelihood that reported revenue is backed by cash and is sustainable). This is a relatively strong score within the earnings‑quality components.
- Margin quality = 35.8/100 and Accumulated losses: none. Reported margins show some quality and the company has no accumulated undistributed losses (equity attributable to owners is positive).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (14th percentile). Outside‑trade receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, long‑term receivables) are small in amount relative to assets, which lowers a specific receivable‑related concern.
The shareholder base is highly concentrated with state tobacco entities: Tổng Công ty Thuốc lá Việt Nam (57.7%), Thuốc lá Thăng Long (6.5%), Thuốc lá Sài Gòn (6.1%), plus other institutional holders. This dominance by state‑linked and group entities implies group and policy objectives likely influence accounting and related‑party flows. Director‑deal registrations show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (one registrant; one without volume) during 2025‑10‑30 to 2026‑10‑30 (registrations, not executed trades).
- Compare the 2025 schedule/note for trade receivables and the related‑party receivables note to verify the composition of the DSRI increase (look for ageing tables and related‑party detail).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash flow statement and the accruals note (calculate the components of TATA from the statements) to validate the low cash conversion ratio over three years.
- Inspect the fixed assets, prepayments and other long‑term receivables notes for FY2025 to identify sources of asset growth that feed LVGI (capital expenditure vs. prepaid suppliers vs. loans to related parties).
- Review the related‑party transactions note (and any group guarantees or intra‑group balances) to see if significant flows to state or group entities explain receivable or prepayment balances.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.64
- P/S
- 0.13
- ROE
- 12.8%
- ROA
- 6.5%
- EPS
- 2.171
- BVPS
- 17.226
- Gross Margin
- 16.9%
- Net Margin
- 2.6%
- D/E
- 1.03
- Current Ratio
- 1.45
- Rev Growth
- +8.7%
- Profit Growth
- +32.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.49
- Div Yield
- 9.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 11.2M
- Charter Capital
- 112B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Thuốc lá
- Sub-industry
- Thuốc lá
- Company Type
- CT