Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 29.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 33.404
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0521st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 8.8%78th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 7.2179 (100th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) and rose by +9.85 year-over-year, signalling an extreme deviation versus local peers in the indicators Beneish uses (e.g. DSRI = 10.0000, SGAI = 1.4938). At the same time, the Altman Z-Score is 6.33 (in the ‘safe’ zone for bankruptcy distance) while the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 (weak fundamentals). Statutory loss tests show none met and there are no accumulated losses in the published statements.
- Beneish M-Score = 7.2179 (100th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The score combines multiple ratios intended to detect earnings manipulation; the company is at the top of the Vietnam peer distribution and the M-Score increased by +9.85 YoY, indicating material year-over-year movement in these signals. Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferrable to Vietnam—percentile and trajectory are the more relevant cues here.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivable Index) = 10.0000. DSRI measures whether receivables/sales are rising faster than sales (a very large value implies receivables or revenue recognition patterns that are highly unusual versus the prior year).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2676. TATA captures accruals-based earnings; a value this large suggests a substantial portion of reported profit is non-cash accruals.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin expense Index) = 1.4938. SGAI measures growth in SGA relative to sales; a near-50% increase relative to sales may reflect cost recognition timing or reclassifications that affect reported margins.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.05 (21st percentile). Low/negative cash conversion indicates profits are not translating into operating cash, a classic earnings-quality concern.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.8% of total assets (78th percentile). This measure captures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables; being in the upper quartile of peers suggests material non-trade asset exposure.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9. The F-Score components suggest weak fundamentals (earnings/efficiency/liquidity signals are below the stronger end of the distribution).
- Altman Z-Score = 6.33 (safe zone). The Z-Score indicates significant distance from bankruptcy risk under Altman’s model.
- Revenue quality = 60.9/100. Among the earnings-quality components provided, revenue quality is relatively higher than other dimensions.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and the parent has not reported net loss in the most recent year (0 years of parent net loss up to FY2025).
- Statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (amended) — none met. The audited annual statements do not meet the statutory thresholds that would trigger the specific exchange cancellation rule cited.
The listed parent BHN holds 60.0% (control). The company is part of a group in which BHN controls multiple operating subsidiaries (several with >50% stakes). Outside the parent, institutional and individual holdings are small (largest non-parent institutional 6.2%, two individuals ~5% each). This concentration implies group-control dynamics and related-party exposure consistent with Vietnamese group structures.
- Compare FY2025 trade receivables and the line(s) for 'loans to/from related parties', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'other long-term receivables' in the notes to understand what composes the 8.8% of assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the components of operating cash flow (cash received from customers, cash paid to suppliers, changes in working capital) in the cash flow statement and the notes against reported net profit to explain the 3-year cash conversion ratio of -0.05.
- Review the accounting policies and note disclosures on revenue recognition and receivable provisioning to assess drivers of the DSRI = 10.0000 and the revenue quality score (60.9/100).
- Inspect related-party transaction schedules and the list of balances with subsidiaries/parent in the consolidated and parent-only statements (given BHN’s 60.0% ownership) to identify material intra-group receivables, prepayments or guarantees.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.25
- P/S
- 0.07
- ROE
- 17.1%
- ROA
- 5.9%
- EPS
- 4.156
- BVPS
- 24.037
- Gross Margin
- 5.9%
- Net Margin
- 0.9%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.14
- Rev Growth
- +5.0%
- Profit Growth
- −31.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 10.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.1M
- Charter Capital
- 31.2B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bia và đồ uống
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất bia
- Company Type
- CT