Back to Dashboard

HAT

Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Bia Hà Nội

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngHNXCT
29.800
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+12.1%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
29.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
33.404

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.10%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend8.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→6.33B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→29.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.1%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
33.404
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.10%
Growth rate8.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow6.3 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth5.0%6.5%8.0%9.5%11.0%
9.1%34.79734.79734.79734.79734.797
10.1%34.17634.79734.79734.79734.797
11.1%33.40433.40434.17634.79734.797
12.1%33.40433.40433.40433.40434.176
13.1%33.40433.40433.40433.40433.404
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·16716616313979929712498771229161···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·11894132781140591038659···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·85140135110555382105540000···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·61417198555230.50.20.8···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·1921416220.080.90.040.030.080.20.6···
Net Inventories
·630.34350.620.90.5122···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·630.34350.620.90.5122···
Other current assets
·310220.22211151730.08···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.40···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·54503436486955444642534653···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·14141516182223222322242425···
Tangible fixed assets
·13141416182122222322242425···
Intagible fixed assets
·0.80.50.30.20.50.90.4000000···
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·8888888888888···
Investments in associate companies
·0000000888888···
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·8888888000000···
Other non-current assets
·33281212234025151512211520···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·32281010223924151512211520···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·221215197174128161152169144119175137114···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·14613812810876978710499771374334···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·14613812810876978710499771374334···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·00000000011000···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·6102712110.610.70.80.4···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·75776966516366654541389480···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·75776966516366654541389480···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·31313131313131313131313131···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·181818181818180.80.80.803732···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·26281917214163313962214···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·221215197174128161152169144119175137114···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·31313131313131313131313131···

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
16
Poor
Accrual Quality
18
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
17
Revenue Quality
61

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 7.22 · 100th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +9.85
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
10.000
GMI
1.327
AQI
1.100
SGI
1.049
DEPI
1.035
SGAI
1.494
TATA
0.268
LVGI
1.029

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.0521st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
8.8%78th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 7.2179 (100th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) and rose by +9.85 year-over-year, signalling an extreme deviation versus local peers in the indicators Beneish uses (e.g. DSRI = 10.0000, SGAI = 1.4938). At the same time, the Altman Z-Score is 6.33 (in the ‘safe’ zone for bankruptcy distance) while the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 (weak fundamentals). Statutory loss tests show none met and there are no accumulated losses in the published statements.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 7.2179 (100th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The score combines multiple ratios intended to detect earnings manipulation; the company is at the top of the Vietnam peer distribution and the M-Score increased by +9.85 YoY, indicating material year-over-year movement in these signals. Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferrable to Vietnam—percentile and trajectory are the more relevant cues here.
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivable Index) = 10.0000. DSRI measures whether receivables/sales are rising faster than sales (a very large value implies receivables or revenue recognition patterns that are highly unusual versus the prior year).
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2676. TATA captures accruals-based earnings; a value this large suggests a substantial portion of reported profit is non-cash accruals.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin expense Index) = 1.4938. SGAI measures growth in SGA relative to sales; a near-50% increase relative to sales may reflect cost recognition timing or reclassifications that affect reported margins.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.05 (21st percentile). Low/negative cash conversion indicates profits are not translating into operating cash, a classic earnings-quality concern.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.8% of total assets (78th percentile). This measure captures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables; being in the upper quartile of peers suggests material non-trade asset exposure.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9. The F-Score components suggest weak fundamentals (earnings/efficiency/liquidity signals are below the stronger end of the distribution).
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 6.33 (safe zone). The Z-Score indicates significant distance from bankruptcy risk under Altman’s model.
  • Revenue quality = 60.9/100. Among the earnings-quality components provided, revenue quality is relatively higher than other dimensions.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and the parent has not reported net loss in the most recent year (0 years of parent net loss up to FY2025).
  • Statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (amended) — none met. The audited annual statements do not meet the statutory thresholds that would trigger the specific exchange cancellation rule cited.
Ownership Risk

The listed parent BHN holds 60.0% (control). The company is part of a group in which BHN controls multiple operating subsidiaries (several with >50% stakes). Outside the parent, institutional and individual holdings are small (largest non-parent institutional 6.2%, two individuals ~5% each). This concentration implies group-control dynamics and related-party exposure consistent with Vietnamese group structures.

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 trade receivables and the line(s) for 'loans to/from related parties', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'other long-term receivables' in the notes to understand what composes the 8.8% of assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile the components of operating cash flow (cash received from customers, cash paid to suppliers, changes in working capital) in the cash flow statement and the notes against reported net profit to explain the 3-year cash conversion ratio of -0.05.
  • Review the accounting policies and note disclosures on revenue recognition and receivable provisioning to assess drivers of the DSRI = 10.0000 and the revenue quality score (60.9/100).
  • Inspect related-party transaction schedules and the list of balances with subsidiaries/parent in the consolidated and parent-only statements (given BHN’s 60.0% ownership) to identify material intra-group receivables, prepayments or guarantees.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
6.33
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.57
Negative
Composite
62
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden−0.31×Op. Margin−0.04×Turnover6.40×Leverage2.95=ROE17.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
−23.1%
Volatility
53.1%
Max Drawdown
−31.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.22P/E
P/B
1.25
P/S
0.07
ROE
17.1%
ROA
5.9%
EPS
4.156
BVPS
24.037
Gross Margin
5.9%
Net Margin
0.9%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
1.14
Rev Growth
+5.0%
Profit Growth
−31.4%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
10.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
3.1M
Charter Capital
31.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →