BTB

Công ty Cổ phần Bia Hà Nội - Thái Bình

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT

4.500

VND · Close 27 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+36.3%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 4.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 6.135

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 26 Nov 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 27 Oct 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

85.09%

Kd(1-t)

5.01%

D/(D+E)

14.91%

WACC

10.19%

Growth Estimate

historical blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→18.77B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→4.500

Calibrated value vs last close→+36.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

6.135

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.19%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend

Base cash flow18.8 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
8.2%	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135
9.2%	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135
10.2%	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135
11.2%	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135
12.2%	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135	6.135

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	15	9	15	27	11	18	31	43	45	54	32	25	40
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	4	1	1	14	0.1	2	7	6	8	9	6	6	6
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	0	0	2	2	0	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	1	0.8	5	1	2	7	13	22	19	30	15	6	12
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.09	0.03	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.01	0.03	0.2	7
Net Inventories	·	10	7	9	12	9	8	10	16	16	13	11	11	14
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	10	7	9	12	9	8	10	16	16	13	11	11	14
Other current assets	·	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	8
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	136	156	176	198	221	245	267	291	312	337	366	388	428
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	0.3	0.2
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	0.2
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	114	134	154	176	199	222	244	267	286	309	338	360	401
Tangible fixed assets	·	114	134	154	176	199	222	244	266	286	309	338	360	401
Intagible fixed assets	·	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	0.08	0.1	0	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	22	22	22	22	22	23	24	24	25	28	28	28	27
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	22	22	22	22	22	23	24	24	25	28	28	28	27
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	151	165	191	225	232	262	298	334	357	391	398	413	468
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	36	51	76	111	122	150	187	226	251	291	307	329	357
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	33	47	73	108	70	60	69	65	62	71	50	69	102
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	7	19	44	73	53	38	42	32	29	46	28	48	8
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.03	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	3	4	3	3	51	90	118	161	189	220	257	260	254
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0.3	0.9	0	0	49	88	115	158	186	218	254	258	253
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	115	114	115	114	111	112	111	108	106	100	91	84	111
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	115	114	115	114	111	112	111	108	106	100	91	84	111
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	28
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	3	3	4	3	−0.4	0.8	0.00	−3	−6	−12	−20	−28	0.1
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	151	165	191	225	232	262	298	334	357	391	398	413	468
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77	77

◆vnvalue Research Note

Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.70 · 28th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +1.27

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.321

GMI

0.946

AQI

1.084

SGI

0.918

DEPI

0.885

SGAI

1.107

TATA

−0.106

LVGI

0.755

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 39.7799th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.4%21st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

9/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.31

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−0.25

Negative

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.75×Interest Burden1.12×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover0.80×Leverage1.31=ROE0.4%

Price Risk

Momentum

−20.0%

Volatility

107.8%

Max Drawdown

−39.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

83.88P/E

P/B: 0.30
P/S: 0.29
ROE: 0.4%
ROA: 0.3%
EPS: 54
BVPS: 14.918
Gross Margin: 14.8%
Net Margin: 0.3%
D/E: 0.06
Current Ratio: 0.46
Rev Growth: −8.3%
Profit Growth: +1264.5%
EV/EBITDA: 1.74
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 7.7M
Charter Capital: 76.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3): Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry: Sản xuất bia
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for BTB. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội

BHN

66.3%

5.1M

2025-12-31

Đinh Văn Thuận

Indiv

6.5%

500,000

2016-09-09

Vũ Thanh Liêm

Indiv

0.7%

53,800

2024-12-31

Hoàng Trọng Thư

Indiv

0.3%

25,047

2020-12-31

Phạm Trung Kiên

Indiv

0.3%

23,200

2021-06-30

Nguyễn Hữu Cường

Indiv

0.2%

12,800

2026-06-30

Đỗ Duyên Ninh

Indiv

0.2%

13,000

2018-12-31

Board & Management

Phạm Trung Kiên0.3%

Chairman of Management Board

Nguyễn Hữu Cường0.2%

Member of Management Board/Deputy Director

Phạm Xuân Hạnh

Member of Management Board

Bùi Quang Vượng

Spokesman

Lê Quý Huệ

Head of Supervisors Board

Top connections

BAL69.0%HBH66.7%BHP66.3%BQB66.3%HAT66.3%HAD66.3%THB66.3%HNR66.3%HHB2 links BBM66.3%HRB66.3%BHK66.3%

Listed group

BHNTổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội
Parent: holds over 50%
66.3%
2025-12-31

Also held by BHN:BAL BBM BHK BHP BQB HAD HAT HBH

Read from the shareholder lists: control above 50% of the shares (VAS 25), significant influence at 20% or more (VAS 07). Each date is that of the disclosure.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Listed group

Ownership network

Listed group