HAD

Công ty Cổ phần Bia Hà Nội - Hải Dương

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngHNXCT

12.700

VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 12.700
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 14.830

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 21 Nov 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Close date unavailableRecalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.10%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→6.31B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→12.700

Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

14.830

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)11.10%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow6.3 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
9.1%	15.849	15.849	15.849	15.849	15.849
10.1%	15.594	15.594	15.594	15.594	15.594
11.1%	15.594	15.594	15.594	15.594	15.594
12.1%	15.594	15.594	15.594	15.594	15.594
13.1%	14.830	14.830	14.830	14.830	15.379

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

HAD among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, HAD marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is HAD. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	72	76	70	70	63	60	63	103	135	118	128	121	116	·	·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	1	0.9	3	2	3	5	8	25	9	14	52	84	79	·	·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	43	52	45	48	37	38	30	41	90	72	35	0	0	·	·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	2	2	1	1	0.4	0.4	3	10	8	8	16	8	7	·	·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	0.2	0.1	0.09	0.08	162,900	0.05	0.6	0.2	1	0.2	4	0.6	1	·	·
Net Inventories	·	25	21	20	19	22	16	22	27	28	24	25	28	29	·	·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	25	21	20	19	22	16	22	27	28	24	25	28	29	·	·
Other current assets	·	0	0	0.2	0	0	0.04	0	0.5	0.04	0.3	0	1	1	·	·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	·	·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	27	19	23	25	27	33	39	42	45	56	46	46	39	·	·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	16	15	18	19	23	29	35	33	36	44	33	40	36	·	·
Tangible fixed assets	·	15	14	17	18	22	28	33	32	34	43	31	38	34	·	·
Intagible fixed assets	·	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	·	·
Other non-current assets	·	10	4	6	5	4	4	4	8	9	12	13	6	3	·	·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	10	4	6	5	4	4	4	8	9	12	13	6	3	·	·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	98	95	94	95	90	93	102	145	180	174	173	166	155	·	·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	24	21	19	18	18	16	27	70	106	19	22	18	20	·	·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	24	21	19	18	18	16	27	70	106	19	22	18	20	·	·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	·	·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	74	74	74	76	72	77	75	75	74	155	152	149	136	·	·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	74	74	74	76	72	77	75	75	74	155	152	149	136	·	·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	·	·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	26	26	26	26	26	26	25	25	24	102	95	85	66	·	·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	8	8	8	11	6	11	10	10	9	13	17	23	25	·	·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	98	95	94	95	90	93	102	145	180	174	173	166	155	·	·
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	·	·

◆vnvalue Research Note

Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

75th–90th

M −1.55 · 79th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +1.15

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.192

GMI

0.926

AQI

2.269

SGI

0.947

DEPI

1.223

SGAI

1.065

TATA

0.075

LVGI

1.104

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 0.5532nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.2%14th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The accounting signals for HAD show elevated forensic risk versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -1.5469 (79th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.15, driven in part by high AQI (2.2687) and DSRI (1.1918). Earnings-quality metrics are mixed-to-weak: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 30.4/100 with especially poor cash-conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100), while solvency and some fundamentals look resilient (Altman Z-Score 4.21 in the safe zone; Piotroski F-Score 4/9).

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score -1.5469 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns) — at the 79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting than most peers; year-over-year change +1.15 shows the M-Score moved materially this year.
AQI (Accruals Quality Index) = 2.2687 (measures unusual accruals behavior) — elevated and a contributor to the M-Score increase.
DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.1918 (measures growth in receivables relative to sales) — suggests receivables are growing faster than sales.
DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.2227 (measures changes in depreciation policy or useful lives) — above 1.0, consistent with slower depreciation or asset-life extensions that can boost reported profit.
TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0747 (measures total accruals relative to assets) — positive accruals indicating earnings partly driven by non-cash items.
Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these measure how profit converts to cash and whether revenue patterns look high quality) — both at the bottom of the scale.
Cash-conversion check (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.55 (32nd percentile) — profits are not converting to cash as well as most Vietnamese peers.

Positive Signals

Altman Z-Score = 4.21 (measures bankruptcy risk using balance-sheet and earnings factors) — in the 'safe' zone and indicates distance from financial distress.
Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of improving performance) — neutral; not showing strong deterioration in fundamentals.
Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (14th percentile) — a low proportion of assets tied up in non-trade receivables such as long-term loans or prepayments.
No accumulated losses and no parent net-loss years in the last period (0 years up to FY2025) — retained earnings and reported parent profit are positive.

Ownership Risk

Majority control is concentrated: BHN (Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội) holds 55.0% (control, position disclosed as of 2026-06-30). The listed parent also controls or significantly influences multiple sister companies in the same group (several subsidiaries with majority stakes), which can create intra-group related-party flows and influence accounting and operating decisions.

To check in the filings

Compare the year-over-year change in ‘Accounts receivable’ and the receivables ageing note with the DSRI drivers — reconcile the receivables growth to reported revenue growth in the income statement.
Inspect the notes to property, plant and equipment for changes in useful lives, depreciation methods, and the schedule that supports DEPI = 1.2227.
Reconcile the consolidated cash-flow from operating activities to consolidated net profit (cash-conversion = 0.55) and review the reconciliation of non-cash items in the cash-flow statement.
Review related-party disclosures and the schedule of loans/advances to/from related parties (prepayments, long-term receivables) given the group structure and the low receivables-outside-trade-cycle ratio (0.2% of assets).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.21

Safe Zone

Sharpe

−0.25

Negative

Composite

70 and above

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.02×Op. Margin0.05×Turnover1.66×Leverage1.33=ROE9.4%

Price Risk

Momentum

−4.8%

Volatility

28.1%

Max Drawdown

−15.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.32P/E

P/B: 0.69
P/S: 0.31
ROE: 9.4%
ROA: 7.2%
EPS: 1.736
BVPS: 18.538
Gross Margin: 24.8%
Net Margin: 4.3%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 2.96
Rev Growth: −5.1%
Profit Growth: +10.1%
EV/EBITDA: 0.65
Div Yield: 9.4%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 4.0M
Charter Capital: 40.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3): Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry: Sản xuất bia
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for HAD. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội

BHN

55.0%

2.2M

2026-06-30

Tăng Thị Thanh

Indiv

0.5%

20,500

2012-12-31

Nguyễn Văn Hách

Indiv

0.5%

20,440

2009-06-30

Vũ Hồng Tứ

Indiv

0.5%

20,000

2011-03-14

Nguyễn Văn Hải

Indiv

0.4%

17,000

2014-12-31

Nguyễn Tiến Gồm

Indiv

0.3%

10,400

2009-06-30

Board & Management

Trần Vân Hà

Member of Management Board/Deputy Director

Vũ Văn Khoan

Deputy Director

Top connections

BAL69.0%HBH66.7%BTB66.3%BHP65.0%BQB62.1%HAT60.0%THB55.0%HNR55.0%HHB55.0%BBM55.0%HRB55.0%BHK55.0%

Listed group

BHNTổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội
Parent: holds over 50%
55.0%
2026-06-30

Also held by BHN:BAL BBM BHK BHP BQB BTB HAT HBH

Read from the shareholder lists: control above 50% of the shares (VAS 25), significant influence at 20% or more (VAS 07). Each date is that of the disclosure.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

HAD among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Listed group

Ownership network

Listed group

HAD among Consumer