Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 8.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.946
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.4117th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.8%47th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.5815 (90th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.48, indicating the company’s accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that the M-Score moved materially this year. Earnings-quality sub-scores are very weak (overall 15.4/100) driven by zero scores in cash conversion, receivables quality and revenue quality; by contrast the Altman Z-Score is 5.73 (safe zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 (weak fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.5815 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight financial ratios). The score is at the 90th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and rose by +2.48 year-over-year (the YoY change shows the accounting profile moved materially this year). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is US-calibrated; use the peer percentile and trajectory for Vietnam.
- DSRI = 1.8106 (Day Sales in Receivables Index; measures growth in receivables relative to sales). A value above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales.
- AQI = 1.7747 (Asset Quality Index; measures the shift to potentially less-depreciable or hard-to-value assets). A value above 1 indicates asset composition became 'riskier' for earnings quality.
- TATA = 0.1750 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; measures accruals-based earnings). A positive 17.50% indicates a sizable portion of earnings is non-cash accruals.
- Earnings-Quality Score = 15.4/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these components measure how much reported profit converts to cash, the quality of receivables, and how repeatable/real reported revenue appears). Zero scores here signal concerns about cash-generation and the persistence/quality of top-line and receivables.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.41 (17th percentile vs Vietnamese peers). This negative ratio shows aggregate profits over three years did not convert into operating cash flow for the sample period.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine signals of improving firm fundamentals; 3 is low and indicates weak operational/financial signal set).
- Altman Z-Score = 5.73 (measures distance to bankruptcy using a multi-factor model). The score is in the 'safe' zone, indicating a healthy distance from financial distress under the Z-Score framework.
- GMI = 1.0100 (Gross Margin Index; measures decline in gross margins). A value close to 1 indicates gross margins have been relatively stable year-over-year.
- SGI = 1.0326 (Sales Growth Index; measures sales growth relative to a prior period). A modest 1.0326 indicates only small sales growth pressure that could otherwise drive aggressive recognition.
- DEPI = 1.0639 and LVGI = 1.0443 (Depreciation Index and Leverage Growth Index). These are elevated but moderate; DEPI >1 suggests slightly lower depreciation rates (potentially slowing depreciation), while LVGI >1 indicates modest leverage increase—both are informative but not extreme on their own.
The listed parent, Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội (BHN), holds 55.0% (control, disclosed 2025-09-30), indicating a concentrated majority owner within a large group that controls multiple related listed entities. Top individual holders include Lương Xuân Dũng (6.1%) and other smaller holders; no director-deal registrations were supplied in the input.
- Compare the increase in trade receivables and the DSRI ratio to the revenue note and the receivables ageing schedule in the annual report (look for growth in receivables vs sales and any concentration or extended terms).
- Reconcile operating cash flow and the components of TATA: read the cash flow statement and the notes on changes in working capital to explain the -0.41 three-year cash-conversion ratio and the 0.1750 TATA value.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation notes to understand DEPI = 1.0639 (check for changes in depreciation methods, useful lives, revaluations or additions shifting asset composition).
- Read the related-party schedules / note on loans, prepayments and other receivables to verify the 1.8% of total assets flagged as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' and to identify the nature (prepayment, intercompany loan, long-term receivable).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.63
- P/S
- 0.06
- ROE
- 2.9%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- EPS
- 373
- BVPS
- 12.957
- Gross Margin
- 7.2%
- Net Margin
- 0.3%
- D/E
- 0.03
- Current Ratio
- 1.72
- Rev Growth
- +3.9%
- Profit Growth
- +11.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 3.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 11.4M
- Charter Capital
- 114B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bia và đồ uống
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất bia
- Company Type
- CT