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Công ty Cổ phần Bia Hà Nội - Thanh Hóa

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngHNXCT
8.100
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
8.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.946

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.400
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.86%
Ke
8.86%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→14.90B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→8.100
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.946
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow14.9 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
8.0%10.70511.04411.04411.04411.044
9.0%10.26910.26910.26910.26910.269
10.0%10.10910.10910.10910.26910.269
11.0%9.9469.9469.94610.10910.109
12.0%9.9469.9469.9469.9469.946
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·234222248239239206179213167183197213172···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·314560441067529423128449289···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·63891533844326057526···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·13673119125847886665254502731···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·6542090.3435970.50.9···
Net Inventories
·61666055445055615139414236···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·61666055445055615139414236···
Other current assets
·00.700.0700195,7640.020.1350.210···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.20.1···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·645870746996116132159162164160171···
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.010.010.010.010.010.010102200···
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.010.010.010.010.010.010102200···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·4146535647678097114115130149170···
Tangible fixed assets
·3742495243637693110111126145166···
Intagible fixed assets
·4544444453434···
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·000000.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.3···
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·000000.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.3···
Other non-current assets
·2011161821293533444432110.9···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1910151821283432444432110.9···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·298280318313308303295345325345361374343···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·150132169160159155146193168125140135117···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·136123157147146143134183157114128135117···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·5000000000000···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·3232163150.90.80.090.020.010.4576,000···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·14101213121212111011120.40.6···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·148148149154149147149152158220221239226···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·148147148153149147149151157219221238226···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·114114114114114114114114114114114114114···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1919191919209132484847163···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·109111611921201517194037···
Budget sources and other funds
·0.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.4···
Budget sources and other funds
·0.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.4···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·298280318313308303295345325345361374343···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·114114114114114114114114114114114114114···

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
15
Poor
Accrual Quality
40
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
36
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M −0.58 · 90th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.48
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.811
GMI
1.010
AQI
1.775
SGI
1.033
DEPI
1.064
SGAI
1.037
TATA
0.175
LVGI
1.044

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.4117th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
1.8%47th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.5815 (90th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.48, indicating the company’s accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that the M-Score moved materially this year. Earnings-quality sub-scores are very weak (overall 15.4/100) driven by zero scores in cash conversion, receivables quality and revenue quality; by contrast the Altman Z-Score is 5.73 (safe zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 (weak fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -0.5815 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight financial ratios). The score is at the 90th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and rose by +2.48 year-over-year (the YoY change shows the accounting profile moved materially this year). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is US-calibrated; use the peer percentile and trajectory for Vietnam.
  • DSRI = 1.8106 (Day Sales in Receivables Index; measures growth in receivables relative to sales). A value above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales.
  • AQI = 1.7747 (Asset Quality Index; measures the shift to potentially less-depreciable or hard-to-value assets). A value above 1 indicates asset composition became 'riskier' for earnings quality.
  • TATA = 0.1750 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; measures accruals-based earnings). A positive 17.50% indicates a sizable portion of earnings is non-cash accruals.
  • Earnings-Quality Score = 15.4/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these components measure how much reported profit converts to cash, the quality of receivables, and how repeatable/real reported revenue appears). Zero scores here signal concerns about cash-generation and the persistence/quality of top-line and receivables.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.41 (17th percentile vs Vietnamese peers). This negative ratio shows aggregate profits over three years did not convert into operating cash flow for the sample period.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine signals of improving firm fundamentals; 3 is low and indicates weak operational/financial signal set).
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 5.73 (measures distance to bankruptcy using a multi-factor model). The score is in the 'safe' zone, indicating a healthy distance from financial distress under the Z-Score framework.
  • GMI = 1.0100 (Gross Margin Index; measures decline in gross margins). A value close to 1 indicates gross margins have been relatively stable year-over-year.
  • SGI = 1.0326 (Sales Growth Index; measures sales growth relative to a prior period). A modest 1.0326 indicates only small sales growth pressure that could otherwise drive aggressive recognition.
  • DEPI = 1.0639 and LVGI = 1.0443 (Depreciation Index and Leverage Growth Index). These are elevated but moderate; DEPI >1 suggests slightly lower depreciation rates (potentially slowing depreciation), while LVGI >1 indicates modest leverage increase—both are informative but not extreme on their own.
Ownership Risk

The listed parent, Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội (BHN), holds 55.0% (control, disclosed 2025-09-30), indicating a concentrated majority owner within a large group that controls multiple related listed entities. Top individual holders include Lương Xuân Dũng (6.1%) and other smaller holders; no director-deal registrations were supplied in the input.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the increase in trade receivables and the DSRI ratio to the revenue note and the receivables ageing schedule in the annual report (look for growth in receivables vs sales and any concentration or extended terms).
  • Reconcile operating cash flow and the components of TATA: read the cash flow statement and the notes on changes in working capital to explain the -0.41 three-year cash-conversion ratio and the 0.1750 TATA value.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation notes to understand DEPI = 1.0639 (check for changes in depreciation methods, useful lives, revaluations or additions shifting asset composition).
  • Read the related-party schedules / note on loans, prepayments and other receivables to verify the 1.8% of total assets flagged as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' and to identify the nature (prepayment, intercompany loan, long-term receivable).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
5.73
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.27
Negative
Composite
57
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.70×Interest Burden−0.09×Op. Margin−0.04×Turnover5.63×Leverage2.01=ROE2.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−3.2%
Volatility
45.3%
Max Drawdown
−22.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
21.70P/E
P/B
0.63
P/S
0.06
ROE
2.9%
ROA
1.5%
EPS
373
BVPS
12.957
Gross Margin
7.2%
Net Margin
0.3%
D/E
0.03
Current Ratio
1.72
Rev Growth
+3.9%
Profit Growth
+11.9%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
3.1%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
11.4M
Charter Capital
114B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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