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Công ty Cổ phần Bia Hà Nội - Nam Định

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT
7.500
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
7.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.209

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

  • A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
  • Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.10%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→3.78B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→7.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.209
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.10%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow3.8 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
9.1%10.22510.22510.22510.22510.225
10.1%9.5089.6149.91210.22510.225
11.1%9.5089.5089.5089.5089.508
12.1%9.5089.5089.5089.5089.508
13.1%9.3609.3609.3609.3609.508
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·26211916141719211481117
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·655226415366
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·141077558142000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·0.80.20.10.91.0110.520.30.80.7
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.10.030.0200.71.00.90.110.010.60
Net Inventories
·5566555554310
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·5566555554310
Other current assets
·0.20.40.50.30.10.60.50.30.50.610.5
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.01
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·111317192121212222272415
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·91114161618172018211815
Tangible fixed assets
·81114161618172018211815
Intagible fixed assets
·0.09000.050.10.2000000
Investment in properties
·10.70.911110.90.70.70.80
Other non-current assets
·111242223550.1
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·111242223550.1
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·373436363539394336353633
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1291110912131811111110
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1291110912131611111110
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.000.090.08000.050360,00000100,0000
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·000000020000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·252424252626262525242523
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·252424252626262525242523
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·202020202020202020202020
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·444444333320.4
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·10.70.8223333232
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·373436363539394336353633
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·202020202020202020202020
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
53
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
21
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M −0.16 · 93rd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.87
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
4.207
GMI
0.853
AQI
1.276
SGI
0.897
DEPI
0.890
SGAI
1.121
TATA
−0.105
LVGI
1.159

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
4.9491st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.3%19th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.1646 (92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.87, signalling an above‑peer trajectory toward more aggressive accounting metrics rather than an absolute US-calibrated manipulation cutoff. Key contributors are a very high DSRI (4.2068) and weak receivables and revenue quality scores (both 0.0/100), while accrual and cash‑conversion measures score strongly (100/100). The Altman Z‑Score is 3.09 (outside immediate bankruptcy concern) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 6/9 (mixed-to-neutral fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = -0.1646 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); Vietnam peer percentile = 92nd (this company’s score is more aggressive than 92% of Vietnamese peers) and YoY change = +1.87 (the accounting trajectory moved substantially year‑over‑year). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not the primary comparator for Vietnam.
  • DSRI = 4.2068 (Days Sales Receivables Index; measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales — a high DSRI can indicate revenue recognized but not collected).
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (earnings-quality components that respectively measure the composition/aging of receivables and sustainability/recurrence of revenue — both score at the worst end of the provided scale).
  • Earnings Quality overall = 53.2/100 with Margin quality = 21.3/100 (low margin quality indicates deterioration or volatility in reported margins relative to peers or history).
  • Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = 4.94 (91st percentile versus Vietnamese non‑financials; a low conversion ratio means profit is not being turned into operating cash effectively).
  • TATA = -0.1050 (Total Accruals to Assets; a negative TATA can reflect earnings supported by cash or by items reducing accruals, relevant to interpreting accruals-based quality).
  • AQI = 1.2763 and LVGI = 1.1588 (AQI: asset quality index >1 can indicate increasing non‑current assets or potential write‑offs; LVGI >1 indicates leverage/volume growth dynamics that feed Beneish components).
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures how stable and reliable accruals appear; here accrual metrics score strongly).
  • Cash conversion score = 100.0/100 according to the earnings‑quality subscore (despite the three‑year cash conversion ratio percentile being high — this points to mixed definitions across the provided metrics).
  • Altman Z‑Score = 3.09 (the Altman Z‑Score measures distance from bankruptcy risk using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity; 3.09 is in the 'safe' zone).
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 6/9 (measures nine signals of improving or declining fundamentals; 6 indicates neutral-to-favourable operational/fundamental health).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (19th percentile among Vietnamese firms; a low level of receivables outside the trade cycle suggests limited long‑term receivable/prepayment exposure on the balance sheet).
  • No accumulated losses; parent net loss years = 0 up to FY2025, and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — these are legal/statement-level strengths in the published statements.
Ownership Risk

The company is majority‑controlled by BHN (Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội) with 51.0% (control under VAS 25). Other significant listed subsidiaries and affiliates exist under the same parent, indicating a large state‑linked/group structure. Individual top shareholders hold smaller stakes (largest individual 7.0%).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year‑on‑year change in trade receivables and the DSRI inputs in the notes to receivables and revenue recognition (disclose the aging schedules and related‑party receivables).
  • Verify the composition of ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ in the balance‑sheet note (identify prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long‑term receivables and their counter‑parties).
  • Reconcile operating cash flow components with net profit in the cash‑flow note (check items driving the 3‑year cash conversion ratio of 4.94: depreciation, working‑capital movements, one‑off items).
  • Inspect the related‑party transactions and intra‑group balances in the related‑party note, given the 51.0% parent holding and multiple sister companies in the same listed group.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.09
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.63
Positive
Composite
69
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.77×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.03×Turnover1.42×Leverage1.47=ROE5.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
+70.8%
Volatility
34.2%
Max Drawdown
−32.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.48P/E
P/B
0.60
P/S
0.29
ROE
5.3%
ROA
3.7%
EPS
654
BVPS
12.497
Gross Margin
27.6%
Net Margin
2.5%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
2.18
Rev Growth
−9.3%
Profit Growth
+104.0%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
2.7%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
2.0M
Charter Capital
20.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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