Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 53.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 57.144
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.3328th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%10th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.6039 (77th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.46; this places CLC above most domestic peers on the model’s aggressiveness ranking while the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not a Vietnam-calibrated threshold. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall score of 82.7/100 with perfect accruals quality (100.0) and strong receivables and cash-conversion sub-scores but a weaker margin quality (50.0) and modest revenue quality (69.9). Solvency and fundamentals look strong (Altman Z-Score 4.21 in the safe zone; Piotroski F-Score 8/9).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.6039 (measures the statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight ratios). The score rose by +0.46 year-over-year, indicating a material shift in the inputs driving the M-Score in the last year (consecutive-year M-Scores correlate weakly, so the trajectory is a secondary cue).
- Beneish earnings-quality components pointing to deterioration in margins and asset composition: GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.0993 (measures year-over-year deterioration in gross margins; >1 indicates margins worsened), and AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.6989 (measures the proportionate increase in non-current and other less-liquid assets; higher values indicate faster growth of these asset categories relative to total assets).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.33 (28th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). This measures the extent to which reported profits convert to operating cash — a low ratio suggests profits are not being supported by operating cash flow.
- Margin quality = 50.0/100 (measures stability and reliability of reported margins). A mid/low score here aligns with GMI >1 and signals that reported profitability may be less robust than peer firms'.
- Earnings-quality overall = 82.7/100 (composite measure of accruals, cash conversion, receivables, margins and revenue quality).
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0038 (measures the extent of accruals in earnings relative to assets; near-zero/negative indicates low aggregate accruals), suggesting reported earnings are not being driven by large accrual adjustments.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (10th percentile). This measures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-duration receivables; a low percentage indicates limited exposure to receivables that lie outside normal trade relationships.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.9365 (<1 indicates leverage fell year-on-year). Altman Z-Score = 4.21 (measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity — 4.21 sits in the model's 'safe' zone). Piotroski F-Score = 8/9 (measures nine aspects of profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency — a high score indicates strong fundamentals).
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.7395 (measures the change in SG&A relative to sales; <1 indicates SG&A grew less than sales or declined), and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.1204 confirms sales grew ~12% year-over-year, so operating expense control improved relative to sales.
The share register is highly concentrated in state-owned tobacco enterprises: Tổng Công ty Thuốc lá Việt Nam 51.0%, Công ty TNHH MTV Thuốc lá Sài Gòn 6.4%, Công ty TNHH Một thành viên Thuốc lá Thăng Long 4.1%. Individuals hold only small stakes (largest individual 1.0% and 0.6%). This indicates dominant institutional/state ownership and likely group/industry alignment in strategy and reporting; no director-deal registrations were provided in the input (director-deal registrations are exchange-recorded intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on prepayments, loans to/from related parties and 'other receivables' to confirm the 0.1% of assets labeled as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify counterparty and terms.
- Reconcile operating cash flow in the consolidated cash flow statement with consolidated net profit to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of 0.33; check the cash flow from operations schedule and any working-capital movement notes.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the notes on reclassifications/asset additions to understand the drivers of AQI = 2.6989 (asset-quality index) and whether increases are capex, capitalized costs, or reclassifications.
- Review the auditor's report and the statutory-loss disclosure lines referenced by Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (amended) to confirm that none of the statutory loss tests are met in the published audited FY2025 statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.46
- P/S
- 0.34
- ROE
- 19.4%
- ROA
- 9.4%
- EPS
- 6.946
- BVPS
- 36.747
- Gross Margin
- 10.0%
- Net Margin
- 4.4%
- D/E
- 0.62
- Current Ratio
- 1.93
- Rev Growth
- +12.0%
- Profit Growth
- +21.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.00
- Div Yield
- 7.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 26.2M
- Charter Capital
- 262B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Thuốc lá
- Sub-industry
- Thuốc lá
- Company Type
- CT