Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.189
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.948th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.9%34th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.2489 (84th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting-signals more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers; the year-over-year M-Score change of -1.43 shows a marked move in the last year. Earnings-quality measures are weak (overall 29.1/100) driven by zero scores on cash-conversion and receivables quality, while the Altman Z-Score of 2.81 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals weak operating and financial fundamentals.
- Beneish M-Score -1.2489 (84th percentile among VN peers): the M-Score combines multiple indicators to screen for earnings manipulation; the company ranks high versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting signals).
- DSRI = 1.8395: Days-Sales-in-Receivables Index >1 indicates receivables grew faster than sales in the period, a common early warning that revenue recognition or collection timing has shifted.
- TATA = 0.1186 (11.86% of assets): Total Accruals to Total Assets measures accrual intensity; a positive and material TATA indicates profit is being supported by accruals rather than cash flow.
- LVGI = 1.4908: Leverage growth index >1 shows rising leverage relative to assets, which can amplify risk if earnings or cash flow weaken.
- Earnings Quality overall 29.1/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100: profits are not translating into cash and receivables-related metrics are poor by the scoring model.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -2.94 (8th percentile): operating cash flow has been strongly negative relative to reported profit across three years, indicating reported profits are not being converted into cash.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: the company scores poorly on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests embedded in the F-Score.
- AQI = 0.6783: Asset Quality Index <1 suggests the non-current asset composition or write-offs improved relative to the prior period (AQI measures change in asset mix excluding receivables), which is a stabilising signal in the M-Score components.
- GMI = 0.9180 (<1): Gross Margin Index <1 indicates gross margin improved rather than declined year-over-year (GMI >1 would signal deteriorating margins).
- SGI = 1.2705: the company is growing sales (Sales Growth Index >1); revenue growth can be a legitimate driver when supported by cash and margin quality.
- DEPI = 1.0294 and SGAI = 1.0407 near 1: depreciation and SG&A show only modest change year-over-year, reducing concern about large one-off accounting policy swings in those areas.
Ownership is highly concentrated in state-owned tobacco enterprises: Tổng Công ty Thuốc lá Việt Nam 76.1%, Công ty TNHH MTV Thuốc lá Sài Gòn 6.5%, and Công ty TNHH MTV Thuốc lá Thăng Long 2.8%, so roughly 85%+ is held by related state-industry entities. This concentration implies group and state influence over corporate strategy and reporting; individual free float is very small (top listed individuals 0.2% each).
- Compare the three-year operating cash flow line on the consolidated cash-flow statement with consolidated net profit and the notes on 'reconciliation of profit to cash flows' to verify drivers of the -2.94 cash-conversion metric.
- Inspect the receivables and other receivables / long-term receivables schedules and the related-party disclosures to reconcile DSRI = 1.8395 and the 0.9% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the notes on depreciation policy and the fixed-asset roster to corroborate DEPI = 1.0294 (change in depreciation rate) and the AQI movements.
- Examine the related-party transactions note and the loans/advances to/from related parties to check whether receivables, prepayments or intercompany balances explain the low receivables-quality and zero cash-conversion scores.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.36
- P/S
- 0.06
- ROE
- 9.2%
- ROA
- 4.1%
- EPS
- 1.333
- BVPS
- 14.927
- Gross Margin
- 11.0%
- Net Margin
- 1.6%
- D/E
- 0.63
- Current Ratio
- 1.42
- Rev Growth
- +27.0%
- Profit Growth
- +34.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.94
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 12.9M
- Charter Capital
- 129B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Thuốc lá
- Sub-industry
- Thuốc lá
- Company Type
- CT