TH1
Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Tổng hợp I Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.953
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.389th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.8%47th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.96×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.2598 (92nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.02, indicating accounting metrics have moved toward more aggressive peer positions; key component signals include a very high SGI (2.3559) and high GMI (1.9397). Earnings-quality measures show very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and margin quality (0.0/100) but excellent receivables quality (100.0/100); the Altman Z-Score is 1.61 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.2598 (92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers): the absolute score is above the US -1.78 threshold but that US cutoff is not directly transferable; the high Vietnam peer percentile and the YoY change (+2.02) show the company’s accounting profile has moved toward more aggressive peers.
- Gross Margin Index (GMI) = 1.9397: GMI > 1 measures deterioration in gross margins year-over-year (higher = worsening gross margin performance).
- Sales Growth Index (SGI) = 2.3559: SGI > 1 measures rapid sales growth (here, strong revenue growth, which can put pressure on controls and quality of reported revenue).
- Total accruals to total assets (TATA) = 0.1716: TATA measures accruals relative to assets (higher values indicate earnings are more driven by accruals than cash); 0.1716 is a material positive accruals signal.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.61 (distress zone): this Z-Score measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings ratios; 1.61 places the company in the distress zone by the Altman classification.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, FY2025) = -2.38 (9th percentile): this measures whether reported profit is converting into operating cash; -2.38 (very low, 9th percentile) indicates profits have not converted to cash over the period.
- Accumulated losses = 0.96 × paid-in capital: the company’s accumulated losses nearly equal paid-in capital (this is a balance-sheet fact requiring attention to solvency and equity composition).
- Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 1 sale registration (1 trader; 1 without a volume) and 0 purchase registrations — registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange and are not executed trades.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.8% of total assets (47th percentile): this measures amounts such as prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables; at 1.8% and the 47th percentile it is middling within Vietnamese peers and not unusually large.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100: this earnings-quality component measures the quality of receivables relative to revenue and other indicators; a score of 100 indicates strong receivables metrics by the scoring system used.
- Revenue quality = 61.8/100: this measures consistency and sustainability of reported revenue; 61.8 is a moderate score, suggesting some reliability in reported sales compared with peers.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral fundamentals): this measures nine fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 5 is middling rather than strongly negative.
Ownership is concentrated: three individuals hold large stakes (Đinh Đức Tùng 20.7%, Nguyễn Vĩnh Huy 15.9%, Hoàng Trí Cường 5.6%) and two institutions hold smaller positions (VOF Investment 4.5%, HFC Vietnam 2.2%). High individual ownership concentration can influence related-party transactions and disclosures; director-deal filings show only a single sale registration in the past year (registrations, not executed trades).
- Compare the operating cash flow line in the consolidated cash-flow statement for FY2023–FY2025 with consolidated net profit to verify the reported three-year cash conversion ratio (-2.38).
- Inspect the notes for 'Receivables', 'Prepayments', 'Loans to related parties' and any long-term receivable schedules to confirm the 1.8% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify counterparty and related-party descriptions.
- Review the equity and retained earnings notes to confirm accumulated losses equal 0.96× paid-in capital and to see any auditor commentary or management explanation.
- Open the disclosures of shareholdings and director/insider transactions to confirm the registered director-deal (one sale registration) and to read any accompanying explanatory notes or intended volumes.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.30
- P/S
- 0.04
- ROE
- 45.7%
- ROA
- 2.2%
- EPS
- 1.459
- BVPS
- 3.926
- Gross Margin
- 4.5%
- Net Margin
- 1.2%
- D/E
- 14.52
- Current Ratio
- 1.06
- Rev Growth
- +135.6%
- Profit Growth
- −29.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 17.67
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 13.5M
- Charter Capital
- 135B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bán lẻ
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Phân phối thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT