Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.490
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.796
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.8%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Real Estate peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 5.4892nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.9%48th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.144 (Vietnam peer percentile 86th, year-over-year change +1.02), indicating it ranks toward more aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly decisive. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 77.4/100 driven by perfect accruals, cash-conversion and receivables sub-scores (100/100 each) but with very weak revenue quality (0/100) and modest margin quality (49.1/100). Other signals: Altman Z-Score 2.06 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score 8/9 (strong fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score -1.144, Vietnam peer percentile 86th and YoY change +1.02: the M-Score is moving toward more aggressive accounting relative to peers (percentile and positive YoY change are the emphasized cues).
- Revenue quality 0.0/100: the revenue-quality component is the weakest element of the earnings-quality assessment.
- Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 5.48, 92nd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials: reported profits are not converting into operating cash as quickly as most peers (high percentile = worse cash conversion).
- DEPI = 1.4004 (Beneish component measuring depreciation rate changes): value above 1 suggests a slowing of depreciation or other changes in depreciation policies that can increase reported profits.
- SGI = 3.6262 (sales growth index): very high sales growth can increase the risk of aggressive recognition; high SGI is a common contributor to elevated M-Scores.
- TATA = -0.0824 (total accruals to total assets): negative but small; while accruals-quality sub-score is high, shifts in TATA combined with the other Beneish components merit attention.
- Earnings Quality Score 77.4/100 with Accruals quality 100/100, Cash conversion 100/100, Receivables quality 100/100: these sub-scores indicate clean accruals measures and receivables patterns by the scoring methodology.
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9: the company has many strong fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency indicators).
- Altman Z-Score 2.06 (grey zone): not in the distress zone (<1.8) but not a strong safe zone (>2.7); indicates moderate distance from classic bankruptcy thresholds.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.9% of total assets (48th percentile): not unusually large in the Vietnamese peer set for items such as prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables.
- No accumulated undistributed losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met: the published statements do not trigger the listed-company statutory loss criteria.
The listed group holds controlling stakes in two subsidiaries (51.7% of DC1 and 50.1% of DC2) and a 25.3% stake in DC4, indicating a typical group control structure with consolidated reporting considerations. Top outside shareholders are relatively dispersed (largest listed institutions 5.0% and 4.7%); director-deal registrations show 38 sale registrations (4 traders; 1,693,557 shares; 36 registrations without volume) and 17 purchase registrations (13 traders; 31,337,547 shares) recorded between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions and not executed trades.
- Compare the year-over-year revenue note and the revenue recognition policy (VAS note) to the elements that produce Revenue quality = 0/100 and SGI = 3.6262.
- Reconcile the depreciation policy and fixed-asset schedules (notes and movement tables) with DEPI = 1.4004 to see whether depreciation methods, useful lives, or revaluations changed.
- Review the cash-flow statement and the operating cash flow / net profit reconciliation (the cash-flow note) to understand the drivers of Cash conversion = 5.48 (three-year measure).
- Examine the related-party and other receivables schedules for the 1.9% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) and any disclosure of terms or impairments.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.81
- P/S
- 1.71
- ROE
- 7.3%
- ROA
- 3.4%
- EPS
- 812
- BVPS
- 12.523
- Gross Margin
- 23.7%
- Net Margin
- 12.9%
- D/E
- 0.22
- Current Ratio
- 2.13
- Rev Growth
- +226.9%
- Profit Growth
- +465.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.44
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 844M
- Charter Capital
- 8,442B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT