BSL

Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Sông Lam

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT

13.000

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+12.1%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 13.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 14.572

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.10%

Growth Estimate

historical blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→68.55B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→13.000

Calibrated value vs last close→+12.1%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

14.572

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)11.10%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend

Base cash flow68.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
9.1%	15.962	15.962	15.962	15.962	15.962
10.1%	15.180	15.180	15.180	15.180	15.180
11.1%	15.180	15.180	15.180	15.180	15.180
12.1%	15.180	15.180	15.180	15.180	15.180
13.1%	14.909	14.909	14.909	15.180	15.180

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

BSL among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, BSL marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is BSL. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	527	440	386	276	200	188	211	202	125	260	333	206	323
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	42	50	29	12	78	32	14	18	15	104	63	42	165
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	313	260	250	170	50	60	80	32	0	0	0	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	93	45	43	22	19	27	39	64	33	56	188	84	64
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	3	0.4	0.2	0.5	3	0.6	0.9	0.4	2	3	2	1	0.7
Net Inventories	·	79	84	64	71	53	68	78	87	75	98	80	76	92
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	79	85	65	74	55	71	81	87	75	98	80	76	92
Other current assets	·	0.2	0.8	0.8	1.0	0.3	0.6	0.5	2	2	2	2	4	2
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	0.01
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	143	201	271	342	421	491	571	633	700	758	803	889	960
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	129	188	258	335	412	475	545	615	684	744	801	876	944
Tangible fixed assets	·	129	188	258	335	412	475	545	615	684	744	801	875	941
Intagible fixed assets	·	0.6	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.1	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.01
Other non-current assets	·	13	13	9	7	9	16	22	17	15	13	0.9	14	16
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	5	6	0.7	0.4	2	7	15	17	15	13	0.9	14	16
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	669	641	657	618	621	679	782	835	825	1,018	1,136	1,096	1,283
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	156	133	154	131	124	191	263	351	329	504	607	605	884
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	155	133	153	130	123	191	263	350	328	503	409	319	394
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	17	0	0	67	119	217	214	333	120	26	92
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	97	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	0.2	0.2	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	198	285	490
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	198	285	486
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	514	508	503	488	497	488	518	485	496	515	529	491	399
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	514	508	503	488	497	488	518	485	496	515	529	491	399
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	0	0
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.9	1	1	0	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	57	52	46	31	41	32	62	28	39	57	71	41	−51
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	669	641	657	618	621	679	782	835	825	1,018	1,136	1,096	1,283
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450	450

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −1.72 · 75th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.86

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

2.146

GMI

1.027

AQI

0.941

SGI

0.952

DEPI

0.878

SGAI

0.931

TATA

−0.042

LVGI

1.120

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 2.1076th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.4%23rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

4.28

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.30

Positive

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.06×Turnover1.33×Leverage1.30=ROE8.2%

Price Risk

Momentum

+17.1%

Volatility

48.9%

Max Drawdown

−23.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

14.06P/E

P/B: 1.16
P/S: 0.67
ROE: 8.3%
ROA: 6.4%
EPS: 939
BVPS: 11.414
Gross Margin: 5.9%
Net Margin: 4.7%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 3.39
Rev Growth: −4.8%
Profit Growth: +4.7%
EV/EBITDA: 2.34
Div Yield: 5.3%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 45.0M
Charter Capital: 450B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3): Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry: Sản xuất bia
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for BSL. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn

Inst

68.8%

30.9M

2026-03-31

Văn Bảo Ngọc

Indiv

3.9%

1.8M

2025-06-30

Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Thái Bình

Inst

3.7%

1.7M

2025-06-30

Nguyễn Thị Hạnh

Indiv

0.9%

400,000

2025-06-30

Văn Thảo Nguyên

Indiv

0.9%

400,000

2025-06-30

Võ Hải Thanh

Indiv

0.4%

197,100

2022-06-30

Văn Thanh Liêm

Indiv

0.4%

182,673

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Huỳnh Loan Anh

Indiv

0.1%

50,000

2024-12-31

Nguyễn Hồng Anh

Indiv

0.1%

50,000

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Minh Anh

Indiv

0.1%

50,000

2017-03-16

Board & Management

Văn Thanh Liêm0.4%

Member of Management Board

Nguyễn Hồng Anh0.1%

Member of Management Board/Director

Nguyễn Thanh Thuỷ

Member of Supervisors Board

Nguyễn Anh Tuấn

Deputy Director

Đặng Việt Cường

Spokesman

Võ Phước Giàu

Member of Management Board

Top connections

WSB86.3%BSQ68.8%SCD68.8%SBB68.8%SB168.8%BSH68.8%BSD68.8%SMB68.8%BSP68.8%STD68.8%PDC68.8%WCS10.0%

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

BSL among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

BSL among Consumer