Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 16.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 18.720
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.7036th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%18th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.4291 (81st percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.43, signalling more aggressive accounting relative to most Vietnam-listed peers and a recent upward trajectory in the M-Score. Key component signals include a high DSRI (2.1235) and elevated SGAI (1.1807), while accruals quality is strong (97.4/100) and the Altman Z-Score (4.89) places the company in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance.
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 2.1235 — measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value above 1 indicates receivables are growing faster than sales and here it is materially elevated, consistent with the 0.0/100 receivables-quality score.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these scores indicate concerns about the persistence or collectability of reported revenue and receivables.
- Beneish M-Score year-over-year change = +0.43 (M-Score itself = -1.4291) — the M-Score is above more conservative US cutoffs but, importantly, sits at the 81st percentile among Vietnamese peers and has moved upward this year, which is a secondary cue that accounting signals have become more aggressive.
- SGAI = 1.1807 — measures growth in selling/general/admin expenses relative to sales; an increase suggests expenses are rising faster than revenue, which can be inconsistent with reported margin trends.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.70 (36th percentile) — indicates that reported profits have not converted into cash as well as most peers (lower percentile = weaker cash conversion).
- Earnings Quality Score = 52.4/100 with Margin quality 65.5/100 — overall middling earnings-quality metrics that, combined with revenue/receivables flags, suggest the need to interrogate revenue recognition and collectability.
- Accruals quality = 97.4/100 — measures the extent to which earnings are explained by accruals; a high score indicates low reliance on accrual accounting adjustments.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0065 — a low total-accrual ratio indicating limited accrual-based earnings explanation in the period measured.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.89 (safe zone) — a multi-factor score suggesting substantial distance from typical bankruptcy distress thresholds.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 — a neutral fundamentals signal (neither strongly positive nor strongly negative) that, combined with the Z-Score and strong accruals quality, tempers some earnings-quality concerns.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (18th percentile) — small absolute amount of long-term/other receivables and prepayments relative to total assets, which reduces one common source of hidden related-party balances in the balance sheet.
The share register is concentrated: the state-related enterprise Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn holds 52.1%, and two other institutions hold 11.7% and 10.4%, respectively, leaving limited free float; two individuals hold 2.7% and 1.0%. This concentrated, largely institutional ownership (including a major state-linked holder) implies control by a small number of shareholders and a group context that can affect related-party transactions and reporting practices.
- Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables (and days sales outstanding) in the notes to revenue by customer or segment to the DSRI = 2.1235 to see whether receivables growth is explained by sales growth or by changes in collection terms.
- Reconcile the line items in the cash-flow statement for operating cash flow to the reported net profit and verify the components that drive the 3-year cash conversion = 0.70 (operating cash flow / net profit).
- Review the related-party note and the schedule of receivables/prepayments for any amounts classified as 'loans receivable', 'prepayments to suppliers' or long-term receivables that support the reported 0.3% of total assets in receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Inspect the SG&A breakdown and segment disclosures to understand drivers behind SGAI = 1.1807 and whether increased SG&A is explained by one-off items, expansion costs, or recurring expense inflation.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.95
- P/S
- 0.53
- ROE
- 9.5%
- ROA
- 7.4%
- EPS
- 1.641
- BVPS
- 17.498
- Gross Margin
- 8.5%
- Net Margin
- 5.2%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 3.91
- Rev Growth
- −11.1%
- Profit Growth
- −27.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.64
- Div Yield
- 6.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 18.0M
- Charter Capital
- 180B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bia và đồ uống
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất bia
- Company Type
- CT