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Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Hà Nội

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT
16.700
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+12.1%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
16.700
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
18.720

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

  • A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.10%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→24.86B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→16.700
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.1%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
18.720
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.10%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow24.9 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
9.1%19.50119.50119.50119.50119.501
10.1%19.50119.50119.50119.50119.501
11.1%19.15219.15219.15219.50119.501
12.1%18.72018.72018.72018.72019.152
13.1%18.72018.72018.72018.72018.720
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·341323389405281301206252296305
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4205210111942176456177201
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2281089306250397200
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·60323328162441404230
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·10.60.40.51.030.8380.6
Net Inventories
·45745659465962827672
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·55846669577170827672
Other current assets
·22220.310.7212
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·62738089113126189254277321
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.010.010.010.010.010.010.01011.0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.010.010.010.010.010.010.01011.0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·5769778499115178225262306
Tangible fixed assets
·5769778499114178225262306
Intagible fixed assets
·0.40.0600.10.50.8000.070.2
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000700000
Other non-current assets
·54457118111314
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·3223596111314
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·402396470495395427395506573626
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·878816520099156125221264309
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·878816419999156125206264306
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·00481080561072120158
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·000.10.421120.81
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.30.20.20.20.20.20.41503
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·00000001500
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·315307305295296271270284309317
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·315307305295296271270284309317
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·180180180180180180180180180180
Other Reserves
·6666666666
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·34343434343434343434
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·95878575765150648896
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·402396470495395427395506573626
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·180180180180180180180180180180

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
52
Fair
Accrual Quality
97
Cash Conversion
73
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
66
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.43 · 81st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.43
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.124
GMI
1.138
AQI
1.119
SGI
0.890
DEPI
0.869
SGAI
1.181
TATA
0.007
LVGI
0.970

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.7036th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.3%18th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.4291 (81st percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.43, signalling more aggressive accounting relative to most Vietnam-listed peers and a recent upward trajectory in the M-Score. Key component signals include a high DSRI (2.1235) and elevated SGAI (1.1807), while accruals quality is strong (97.4/100) and the Altman Z-Score (4.89) places the company in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance.

Red Flags
  • Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 2.1235 — measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value above 1 indicates receivables are growing faster than sales and here it is materially elevated, consistent with the 0.0/100 receivables-quality score.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these scores indicate concerns about the persistence or collectability of reported revenue and receivables.
  • Beneish M-Score year-over-year change = +0.43 (M-Score itself = -1.4291) — the M-Score is above more conservative US cutoffs but, importantly, sits at the 81st percentile among Vietnamese peers and has moved upward this year, which is a secondary cue that accounting signals have become more aggressive.
  • SGAI = 1.1807 — measures growth in selling/general/admin expenses relative to sales; an increase suggests expenses are rising faster than revenue, which can be inconsistent with reported margin trends.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.70 (36th percentile) — indicates that reported profits have not converted into cash as well as most peers (lower percentile = weaker cash conversion).
  • Earnings Quality Score = 52.4/100 with Margin quality 65.5/100 — overall middling earnings-quality metrics that, combined with revenue/receivables flags, suggest the need to interrogate revenue recognition and collectability.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 97.4/100 — measures the extent to which earnings are explained by accruals; a high score indicates low reliance on accrual accounting adjustments.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0065 — a low total-accrual ratio indicating limited accrual-based earnings explanation in the period measured.
  • Altman Z-Score = 4.89 (safe zone) — a multi-factor score suggesting substantial distance from typical bankruptcy distress thresholds.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 — a neutral fundamentals signal (neither strongly positive nor strongly negative) that, combined with the Z-Score and strong accruals quality, tempers some earnings-quality concerns.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (18th percentile) — small absolute amount of long-term/other receivables and prepayments relative to total assets, which reduces one common source of hidden related-party balances in the balance sheet.
Ownership Risk

The share register is concentrated: the state-related enterprise Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn holds 52.1%, and two other institutions hold 11.7% and 10.4%, respectively, leaving limited free float; two individuals hold 2.7% and 1.0%. This concentrated, largely institutional ownership (including a major state-linked holder) implies control by a small number of shareholders and a group context that can affect related-party transactions and reporting practices.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables (and days sales outstanding) in the notes to revenue by customer or segment to the DSRI = 2.1235 to see whether receivables growth is explained by sales growth or by changes in collection terms.
  • Reconcile the line items in the cash-flow statement for operating cash flow to the reported net profit and verify the components that drive the 3-year cash conversion = 0.70 (operating cash flow / net profit).
  • Review the related-party note and the schedule of receivables/prepayments for any amounts classified as 'loans receivable', 'prepayments to suppliers' or long-term receivables that support the reported 0.3% of total assets in receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Inspect the SG&A breakdown and segment disclosures to understand drivers behind SGAI = 1.1807 and whether increased SG&A is explained by one-off items, expansion costs, or recurring expense inflation.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.89
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.14
Negative
Composite
53
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.78×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.07×Turnover1.41×Leverage1.28=ROE9.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.8%
Volatility
61.1%
Max Drawdown
−26.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.18P/E
P/B
0.95
P/S
0.53
ROE
9.5%
ROA
7.4%
EPS
1.641
BVPS
17.498
Gross Margin
8.5%
Net Margin
5.2%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
3.91
Rev Growth
−11.1%
Profit Growth
−27.9%
EV/EBITDA
1.64
Div Yield
6.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
18.0M
Charter Capital
180B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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