Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.350
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 27 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.7871st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.4%22nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.6079 (77th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -0.24, signalling that its accounting profile is more aggressive than most local peers and has shifted this year. Strengths include very low total accruals (TATA = 0.0053) and high accruals-quality (97.9/100), while key concerns are a high DSRI (2.1221) and a very poor receivables-quality score (0.0/100) combined with relatively weak cash conversion (operating cash / net profit = 1.78, 71st percentile). The Altman Z-Score is 3.33 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 7/9 (solid fundamentals).
- Beneish DSRI = 2.1221 — the Days’ Sales Receivable Index measures the change in receivables relative to sales; a value well above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than revenue and can be a signal of revenue recognition or collection issues.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.6079 (Vietnam peer percentile 77th) — the M-Score aggregates eight earnings-quality signals; relative to Vietnamese peers the company sits in the more aggressive 23% (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting), and the M-Score moved by -0.24 year-over-year (the direction and magnitude of change is a secondary cue).
- Earnings-quality Receivables quality = 0.0/100 — this metric indicates materially weak receivables quality in the scoring model used here and is a strong signal to inspect receivable composition and permitting items outside the normal trade cycle.
- Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.78 (71st percentile) — the company shows relatively low conversion of reported profit into operating cash versus peers (higher percentile here signals worse cash conversion), which can indicate earnings booked without matching cash inflows.
- SGI = 0.9469 and GMI = 0.8476 — sales growth index below 1 means sales shrank year-on-year (SGI < 1), while GMI < 1 indicates gross margins improved; that combination can accompany margin management or changes in revenue mix that merit review.
- TATA (total accruals / total assets) = 0.0053 — very low total accruals relative to assets, and accruals-quality = 97.9/100, both suggest reported earnings are not primarily driven by accruals in the most recent period.
- AQI = 0.8782 — the Asset Quality Index below 1 indicates no broad deterioration in capitalisation of costs or reclassification of expenses to assets (improving or stable asset quality by this index).
- DEPI = 0.9114 and SGAI = 0.9973 — depreciation and SG&A change indices close to or below 1 indicate no obvious upward re‑allocation of expenses to boost short‑term earnings (DEPI <1 here does not point to slower depreciation) and relatively stable SG&A relative to sales.
- Altman Z‑Score = 3.33 — places the company in the 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance by the Z‑Score model.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 7/9 — a score of 7 indicates several improving accounting/fundamental signals (profitability, liquidity, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics) compared with lower‑scoring peers.
A single institutional shareholder, Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn, holds 54.7% (majority concentration). The remaining listed individuals hold small stakes (largest individual 1.0%). This is a concentrated ownership structure with a dominant corporate shareholder; director-deal registrations were not provided in the data.
- Compare the year-end receivables aging schedule and the related-party receivables/loans note to see whether receivables are trade receivables, long-term receivables, prepayments or related‑party balances (given DSRI = 2.1221 and receivables-quality = 0.0/100).
- Reconcile profit to operating cash flow in the cash-flow statement and the notes (three‑year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.78): inspect the components of working capital movement (inventory, payables, receivables) and one‑off items affecting cash conversion.
- Review the fixed-asset register / depreciation policy note and movements in accumulated depreciation (DEPI = 0.9114) to confirm depreciation rates, revaluations or changes in useful lives that affect earnings.
- Check the related-party transactions and balances note (prepayments, loans to/from related parties and guarantees) and the schedule of non-trade receivables (the Vietnamese check on receivables outside the trade cycle was 0.4% of total assets, 22nd percentile) to reconcile the low external receivables-outside-trade figure with the low receivables-quality score.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.51
- P/S
- 0.21
- ROE
- 12.8%
- ROA
- 8.7%
- EPS
- 1.671
- BVPS
- 13.367
- Gross Margin
- 14.2%
- Net Margin
- 5.2%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 2.48
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 10.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 10.5M
- Charter Capital
- 105B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bia và đồ uống
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất bia
- Company Type
- CT