Back to Dashboard

SB1

Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Nghệ Tĩnh

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT
6.800
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
6.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.350

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

  • Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.10%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→17.81B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→6.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.350
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.10%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow17.8 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
9.1%9.2719.2719.2719.2719.271
10.1%8.6218.6218.6218.7169.271
11.1%8.6218.6218.6218.6218.621
12.1%8.4868.4868.6218.6218.621
13.1%8.3508.4868.4868.4868.486
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·141124107865855626075100113125142
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·77746034181053843133873
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·90.60.30000000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·2512533344910604132
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.90.70.20.30.30.320.420.4493
Net Inventories
·29364148354051515546404433
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·34424653404660515546404433
Other current assets
·111.023322310.524
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000021
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·657584981151251371421481531298774
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·45536068808387899189614539
Tangible fixed assets
·44526068808387899189613939
Intagible fixed assets
·0.70.080000.010.03000.000.0600
Investment in properties
·3333000000000
Other non-current assets
·17192227353850535763674335
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·15172126353846505763674335
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·206199191184173180200202223253242212216
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·65656053504759617192905552
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·57555042363442456688875045
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0000000715403500.9
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.60.50.60.50.50.611.00.000.02000.02
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·9910101414171554456
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·140135131131123133141141151161151157164
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·140135131131123133141141151161151157164
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·105105105105105105105105105105105105105
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·88888822222222221613
Other Reserves
··000000111111111111
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·201411113137−471771222
Budget sources and other funds
·00000000.040.040.040.0400
Budget sources and other funds
··0000000.040.040.040.0400
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·206199191184173180200202223253242212216
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·105105105105105105105105105105105105105
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
60
Fair
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
75
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
51

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.61 · 77th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.24
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.122
GMI
0.848
AQI
0.878
SGI
0.947
DEPI
0.911
SGAI
0.997
TATA
0.005
LVGI
0.995

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.7871st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.4%22nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.6079 (77th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -0.24, signalling that its accounting profile is more aggressive than most local peers and has shifted this year. Strengths include very low total accruals (TATA = 0.0053) and high accruals-quality (97.9/100), while key concerns are a high DSRI (2.1221) and a very poor receivables-quality score (0.0/100) combined with relatively weak cash conversion (operating cash / net profit = 1.78, 71st percentile). The Altman Z-Score is 3.33 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 7/9 (solid fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish DSRI = 2.1221 — the Days’ Sales Receivable Index measures the change in receivables relative to sales; a value well above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than revenue and can be a signal of revenue recognition or collection issues.
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.6079 (Vietnam peer percentile 77th) — the M-Score aggregates eight earnings-quality signals; relative to Vietnamese peers the company sits in the more aggressive 23% (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting), and the M-Score moved by -0.24 year-over-year (the direction and magnitude of change is a secondary cue).
  • Earnings-quality Receivables quality = 0.0/100 — this metric indicates materially weak receivables quality in the scoring model used here and is a strong signal to inspect receivable composition and permitting items outside the normal trade cycle.
  • Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.78 (71st percentile) — the company shows relatively low conversion of reported profit into operating cash versus peers (higher percentile here signals worse cash conversion), which can indicate earnings booked without matching cash inflows.
  • SGI = 0.9469 and GMI = 0.8476 — sales growth index below 1 means sales shrank year-on-year (SGI < 1), while GMI < 1 indicates gross margins improved; that combination can accompany margin management or changes in revenue mix that merit review.
Positive Signals
  • TATA (total accruals / total assets) = 0.0053 — very low total accruals relative to assets, and accruals-quality = 97.9/100, both suggest reported earnings are not primarily driven by accruals in the most recent period.
  • AQI = 0.8782 — the Asset Quality Index below 1 indicates no broad deterioration in capitalisation of costs or reclassification of expenses to assets (improving or stable asset quality by this index).
  • DEPI = 0.9114 and SGAI = 0.9973 — depreciation and SG&A change indices close to or below 1 indicate no obvious upward re‑allocation of expenses to boost short‑term earnings (DEPI <1 here does not point to slower depreciation) and relatively stable SG&A relative to sales.
  • Altman Z‑Score = 3.33 — places the company in the 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance by the Z‑Score model.
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 7/9 — a score of 7 indicates several improving accounting/fundamental signals (profitability, liquidity, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics) compared with lower‑scoring peers.
Ownership Risk

A single institutional shareholder, Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn, holds 54.7% (majority concentration). The remaining listed individuals hold small stakes (largest individual 1.0%). This is a concentrated ownership structure with a dominant corporate shareholder; director-deal registrations were not provided in the data.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year-end receivables aging schedule and the related-party receivables/loans note to see whether receivables are trade receivables, long-term receivables, prepayments or related‑party balances (given DSRI = 2.1221 and receivables-quality = 0.0/100).
  • Reconcile profit to operating cash flow in the cash-flow statement and the notes (three‑year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.78): inspect the components of working capital movement (inventory, payables, receivables) and one‑off items affecting cash conversion.
  • Review the fixed-asset register / depreciation policy note and movements in accumulated depreciation (DEPI = 0.9114) to confirm depreciation rates, revaluations or changes in useful lives that affect earnings.
  • Check the related-party transactions and balances note (prepayments, loans to/from related parties and guarantees) and the schedule of non-trade receivables (the Vietnamese check on receivables outside the trade cycle was 0.4% of total assets, 22nd percentile) to reconcile the low external receivables-outside-trade figure with the low receivables-quality score.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.33
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.35
Positive
Composite
86
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.07×Turnover1.64×Leverage1.46=ROE12.5%
Price Risk
Momentum
+15.2%
Volatility
29.7%
Max Drawdown
−15.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.07P/E
P/B
0.51
P/S
0.21
ROE
12.8%
ROA
8.7%
EPS
1.671
BVPS
13.367
Gross Margin
14.2%
Net Margin
5.2%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
2.48
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
10.3%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
10.5M
Charter Capital
105B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →