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Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Bia Sài Gòn Bình Tây

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT
15.500
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
15.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
18.099

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
57.7%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.0percentage points
Consumer12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−9.5+5.5
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.690
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.13%
Ke
10.13%
x
E/(D+E)
82.75%
+
Kd(1-t)
7.95%
x
D/(D+E)
17.25%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend12.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→144.99B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→15.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
18.099
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate12.00%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow145.0 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth9.0%10.5%12.0%13.5%15.0%
8.0%19.03219.03219.34419.65119.651
9.0%18.09919.03219.03219.03219.032
10.0%18.09918.09918.09918.09919.032
11.0%18.09918.09918.09918.09918.099
12.0%17.37517.37518.09918.09918.099
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·9057391,0091,1411,072851915981376548527394
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·23114725228537618810812477218257143
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·50132110882838282040000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·333168318338359312407373101230153155
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·171311711839159640230.5
Net Inventories
·2882913274273073113694581579911695
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·3042913274273073113694581579911695
Other current assets
·32222236110.40.8
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,2271,3681,6821,8972,1732,5502,7752,8891,7161,2811,1171,162
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.020.029990.20.20.30.30.30.30.3
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.020.020.20.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.3
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·9621,0871,2421,4461,6701,9272,1032,146702626682760
Tangible fixed assets
·8991,0231,1751,3781,5991,8542,0282,071625547601678
Intagible fixed assets
·636567697173757577798182
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·214207345338367481520546494469394359
Investments in associate companies
·41187325317345459498524420356347312
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·1742222222222222274744747
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−2−2−2−2000004000
Other non-current assets
·4773739111212811213064374039
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·4153526889104889547192022
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,1332,1072,6913,0373,2453,4013,6903,8702,0921,8301,6441,556
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·8269749261,0761,2571,2891,4711,700579378299329
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·7048518941,0161,1389981,0211,153310310299309
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·15029736848447847243957345301541
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·1520211416849200.40.40.2
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1221223260119292451547269680.0720
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0004510829245154626968020
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1,3071,1341,7651,9611,9882,1122,2192,1701,5131,4521,3451,227
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,3071,1341,7651,9611,9882,1122,2192,1701,5131,4521,3451,227
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·875875875875875875875875566566566566
Other Reserves
·−51−51−51−51−51−51−51−510000
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0411499499499499499481458434412392
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·46−5386202229352460429489452367269
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·2,1332,1072,6913,0373,2453,4013,6903,8702,0921,8301,6441,556
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000000202500
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·009990000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·875875875875875875875875566566566566

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
41
Weak
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
68
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.77 · 73rd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.29
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.364
GMI
0.539
AQI
0.935
SGI
1.457
DEPI
0.971
SGAI
0.274
TATA
0.013
LVGI
0.817

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.8%32nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.767 (just above the US -1.78 cutoff) with a Vietnam peer percentile of 73 and a year-over-year increase of +2.29, indicating accounting measures that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially this year. Earnings-quality components show very poor receivables, margin and revenue quality (each 0.0/100) while accruals quality is high (94.9/100) and cash-conversion is moderate (68.2/100); Altman Z-Score is 3.02 (in the safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 8/9 (strong fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.767: this is marginally above the US -1.78 benchmark used by Beneish; Vietnamese context matters (about 28% of VN stocks cross the US cutoff), so the peer percentile (73rd) and the +2.29 YoY rise are important signals of increased earnings-management attributes relative to local peers and versus last year.
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3638: measures receivables growth relative to sales; a value >1 indicates receivables are rising faster than sales and can signal revenue recognition or collection timing differences.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (32nd percentile): the formal receivables-quality metric scores worst-in-sample while the disclosed amount outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) is small but non-zero — the 0.8% figure should be inspected for composition.
  • Earnings-quality sub-scores Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100: these indicate the model sees weak evidence of sustainable revenue and margin performance in the reported numbers.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change +2.29: the M-Score moved materially in one year (noting consecutive-year M-Scores have low autocorrelation), which is a secondary cue to examine recent accounting choices and disclosures.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 94.9/100: indicates that accrual accounting appears clean by the accruals-quality model’s measures.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0126: low absolute aggregate accruals (about 1.26% of assets) supporting the high accruals-quality score.
  • Altman Z-Score = 3.02 (safe zone): indicates distance from bankruptcy risk per the Z-Score framework.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 8/9: strong score on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals.
  • AQI = 0.9345 and DEPI = 0.9713: asset quality and depreciation indices are not extreme in directions commonly associated with aggressive capitalization or depreciation policy changes.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn holds 59.6% and another institutional shareholder owns 6.3%, with several individuals holding small stakes (1.8%, 1.2%, 1.1%). This dominant institutional majority implies control by a large shareholder entity and suggests group or related-party transactions and disclosures warrant attention under Vietnamese group/related-party norms.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 schedule or note for 'receivables and prepayments' to verify the 0.8% of total assets classified as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and inspect the counterparties (related parties vs third parties).
  • Reconcile revenue growth and the DSRI by comparing the revenue note and the receivables ageing/turnover schedule for FY2024 and FY2025 to see whether receivables rose faster than sales (DSRI = 1.3638).
  • Examine the notes on depreciation and fixed assets to confirm DEPI = 0.9713 and the explanation for any changes in estimated useful lives or disposals that could affect margin and revenue quality scores.
  • Review the consolidated statement of changes in equity and the parent profit (lợi nhuận sau thuế của công ty mẹ) to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive as reported.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.02
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.12
Positive
Composite
69
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.93×Interest Burden0.92×Op. Margin0.07×Turnover1.49×Leverage1.63=ROE13.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
+21.2%
Volatility
38.0%
Max Drawdown
−18.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.17P/E
P/B
1.14
P/S
0.47
ROE
14.9%
ROA
8.6%
EPS
2.082
BVPS
14.928
Gross Margin
9.1%
Net Margin
5.7%
D/E
0.12
Current Ratio
1.29
Rev Growth
+45.7%
Profit Growth
+159.4%
EV/EBITDA
3.84
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
87.5M
Charter Capital
875B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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