SBB
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Bia Sài Gòn Bình Tây
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 18.099
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 57.7%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%32nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.767 (just above the US -1.78 cutoff) with a Vietnam peer percentile of 73 and a year-over-year increase of +2.29, indicating accounting measures that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially this year. Earnings-quality components show very poor receivables, margin and revenue quality (each 0.0/100) while accruals quality is high (94.9/100) and cash-conversion is moderate (68.2/100); Altman Z-Score is 3.02 (in the safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 8/9 (strong fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score -1.767: this is marginally above the US -1.78 benchmark used by Beneish; Vietnamese context matters (about 28% of VN stocks cross the US cutoff), so the peer percentile (73rd) and the +2.29 YoY rise are important signals of increased earnings-management attributes relative to local peers and versus last year.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3638: measures receivables growth relative to sales; a value >1 indicates receivables are rising faster than sales and can signal revenue recognition or collection timing differences.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (32nd percentile): the formal receivables-quality metric scores worst-in-sample while the disclosed amount outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) is small but non-zero — the 0.8% figure should be inspected for composition.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100: these indicate the model sees weak evidence of sustainable revenue and margin performance in the reported numbers.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +2.29: the M-Score moved materially in one year (noting consecutive-year M-Scores have low autocorrelation), which is a secondary cue to examine recent accounting choices and disclosures.
- Accruals quality = 94.9/100: indicates that accrual accounting appears clean by the accruals-quality model’s measures.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0126: low absolute aggregate accruals (about 1.26% of assets) supporting the high accruals-quality score.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.02 (safe zone): indicates distance from bankruptcy risk per the Z-Score framework.
- Piotroski F-Score = 8/9: strong score on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals.
- AQI = 0.9345 and DEPI = 0.9713: asset quality and depreciation indices are not extreme in directions commonly associated with aggressive capitalization or depreciation policy changes.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn holds 59.6% and another institutional shareholder owns 6.3%, with several individuals holding small stakes (1.8%, 1.2%, 1.1%). This dominant institutional majority implies control by a large shareholder entity and suggests group or related-party transactions and disclosures warrant attention under Vietnamese group/related-party norms.
- Compare the 2025 schedule or note for 'receivables and prepayments' to verify the 0.8% of total assets classified as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and inspect the counterparties (related parties vs third parties).
- Reconcile revenue growth and the DSRI by comparing the revenue note and the receivables ageing/turnover schedule for FY2024 and FY2025 to see whether receivables rose faster than sales (DSRI = 1.3638).
- Examine the notes on depreciation and fixed assets to confirm DEPI = 0.9713 and the explanation for any changes in estimated useful lives or disposals that could affect margin and revenue quality scores.
- Review the consolidated statement of changes in equity and the parent profit (lợi nhuận sau thuế của công ty mẹ) to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive as reported.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.14
- P/S
- 0.47
- ROE
- 14.9%
- ROA
- 8.6%
- EPS
- 2.082
- BVPS
- 14.928
- Gross Margin
- 9.1%
- Net Margin
- 5.7%
- D/E
- 0.12
- Current Ratio
- 1.29
- Rev Growth
- +45.7%
- Profit Growth
- +159.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.84
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 87.5M
- Charter Capital
- 875B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bia và đồ uống
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất bia
- Company Type
- CT