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ACG

Công ty Cổ phần Gỗ An Cường

VietnamCyclicalsTài nguyên Cơ bảnLâm nghiệp và GiấyHOSECT
30.100
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+7.0%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
30.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
32.203

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Tài nguyên Cơ bản” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→582.23B
Fair EV/EBITDA→8.7x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→30.100
Calibrated value vs last close→+7.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
32.203
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA582.2 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·5,1504,1204,1323,8393,6513,5883,1052,5732,218
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·388155673889953653294
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1,7652,0481,8351,0491,5281,680961480499
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1,3489321,079888619689687577588
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·29231194348333561108
Net Inventories
·1,5449681,1351,4671,3801,1331,3201,3871,006
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1,5921,0021,1711,4921,4101,1521,3341,3891,009
Other current assets
·1061717482533719731
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,8221,5201,3911,6281,3328651,074995577
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·1641461653673226210.9
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·163142223673226210.9
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·321374405439535635728735368
Tangible fixed assets
·288347393426518615708714344
Leased assets
·500000000
Intagible fixed assets
·282712131720202224
Investment in properties
·1300000000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·46678060161627508300
Investments in associate companies
·34740640640200000
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·1191191191191190000
Other non-current assets
·825217198201198221260236207
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·769176187192190212253235207
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·6,9725,6405,5225,4674,9834,4534,1793,5692,795
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·2,5631,4641,4461,5551,2069368091,019728
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2,3561,4511,4311,5421,1979308061,019728
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1,20972870781456730822132996
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·148136174161206233173203204
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·207131513107200
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·5600000000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·4,4094,1764,0773,9123,7773,5173,3712,5502,067
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·4,4094,1764,0773,9123,7773,5173,3712,5502,067
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1,5081,5081,5081,358877877859803428
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·210360.0125372380
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1,3881,2491,1141,1351,4571,2151,080913813
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·6,9725,6405,5225,4674,9834,4534,1793,5692,795
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·4582581162000055
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00143000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1,5081,5081,5081,358877877859803428
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·7400000000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
23
Poor
Accrual Quality
53
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
10
Margin Stability
50
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.56 · 79th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.22
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.249
GMI
1.077
AQI
1.060
SGI
1.158
DEPI
0.952
SGAI
0.909
TATA
0.126
LVGI
1.345

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.6634th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
13.1%86th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

ACG’s forensic indicators show mixed but concerning signals: the Beneish M-Score is -1.5568 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.22, indicating accounting metrics have moved toward more aggressive peers. Earnings-quality sub-scores are weak overall (Earnings Quality 22.9/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100), while the Altman Z-Score is 2.98 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is low at 2/9, signalling weak fundamentals.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.5568 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +1.22): the overall M-Score is above many Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-over-year — the score incorporates DSRI, GMI, AQI, SGI, DEPI, SGAI, LVGI and TATA.
  • Days-Sales-Receivables Index (DSRI) = 1.2493: receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) have grown faster than sales, which raises a signal for possible revenue-related recognition timing.
  • Large non-trade receivables / prepayments (Receivables outside the trade cycle = 13.1% of total assets; 86th percentile): a high share of assets are receivables outside the normal trade cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables), which is a common area for judgment and related-party activity under VAS.
  • Very weak cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit over 3 years = 0.66; 34th percentile and Cash conversion sub-score 0.0/100): profits are not being converted into cash consistently.
  • Revenue-quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue growth index (SGI) = 1.1577: revenue growth is present but revenue-quality metrics score poorly, consistent with DSRI and the 0 revenue-quality sub-score.
  • Low Piotroski F-Score = 2/9: fundamental health measures (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency) are weak.
  • Low TATA (total accruals) contribution: TATA = 0.1263 (part of the Beneish model and accruals-based signals) and Receivables quality = 10.1/100, indicating accruals and receivables contribute to low earnings quality.
Positive Signals
  • DEPI = 0.9517: depreciation index below 1.0 suggests no obvious slowing of depreciation that would inflate income (DEPI < 1 tends not to indicate asset-life inflation).
  • SGAI = 0.9093: selling, general & administrative expenses relative to sales have not expanded (SGAI < 1), reducing one common source of margin manipulation.
  • No accumulated losses and parent company net loss years = 0: undistributed earnings are positive and the parent has not reported a net loss in the tested period.
  • Director-deal registrations net +0.09% and only 1 purchase registration (133,200 shares) with 0 sale registrations in the last year: insider registration activity is limited in both count and net volume (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not trades).
  • Major institutional ownership: large, stable institutions hold most shares (50.0%, 19.6%, 18.1%) which can correlate with greater scrutiny and governance oversight.
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is highly concentrated: Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Nc Việt Nam holds 50.0%, Sumitomo Forestry 19.6%, and Whitlam Holding 18.1%. This concentrated institutional ownership, together with a small individual holding (Nguyễn Minh Tuấn 2.0%), implies control is largely with a few entities; director-deal registrations show modest insider purchase registration (133,200 shares, +0.09% of shares outstanding).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) to "Receivables and long-term receivables" (or the equivalent schedule) to reconcile the 13.1% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties (related parties, suppliers, employees).
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and management discussion to confirm drivers of the 3-year cash conversion ratio 0.66 and explain large timing differences or non-cash items.
  • Review the revenue recognition policy note and the trade receivables ageing / allowance schedules to investigate the DSRI = 1.2493 signal and the Revenue-quality = 0.0/100 score.
  • Inspect the related-party transactions and balances note for loans, prepayments or guarantees to see whether material non-trade receivables are intra-group or with named counterparties (useful given VAS and group-structure prevalence).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.98
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.46
Negative
Composite
57
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.78×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.14×Turnover0.66×Leverage1.58=ROE11.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
−5.7%
Volatility
32.1%
Max Drawdown
−18.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.98P/E
P/B
1.04
P/S
0.98
ROE
11.8%
ROA
8.0%
EPS
3.342
BVPS
28.750
Gross Margin
29.2%
Net Margin
10.9%
D/E
0.29
Current Ratio
2.19
Rev Growth
+15.5%
Profit Growth
+20.0%
EV/EBITDA
6.28
Div Yield
6.7%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
151M
Charter Capital
1,508B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
Sub-industry
Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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