Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 30.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 32.203
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.6634th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 13.1%86th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
ACG’s forensic indicators show mixed but concerning signals: the Beneish M-Score is -1.5568 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.22, indicating accounting metrics have moved toward more aggressive peers. Earnings-quality sub-scores are weak overall (Earnings Quality 22.9/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100), while the Altman Z-Score is 2.98 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is low at 2/9, signalling weak fundamentals.
- Beneish M-Score -1.5568 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +1.22): the overall M-Score is above many Vietnamese peers and has moved materially year-over-year — the score incorporates DSRI, GMI, AQI, SGI, DEPI, SGAI, LVGI and TATA.
- Days-Sales-Receivables Index (DSRI) = 1.2493: receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) have grown faster than sales, which raises a signal for possible revenue-related recognition timing.
- Large non-trade receivables / prepayments (Receivables outside the trade cycle = 13.1% of total assets; 86th percentile): a high share of assets are receivables outside the normal trade cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables), which is a common area for judgment and related-party activity under VAS.
- Very weak cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit over 3 years = 0.66; 34th percentile and Cash conversion sub-score 0.0/100): profits are not being converted into cash consistently.
- Revenue-quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue growth index (SGI) = 1.1577: revenue growth is present but revenue-quality metrics score poorly, consistent with DSRI and the 0 revenue-quality sub-score.
- Low Piotroski F-Score = 2/9: fundamental health measures (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency) are weak.
- Low TATA (total accruals) contribution: TATA = 0.1263 (part of the Beneish model and accruals-based signals) and Receivables quality = 10.1/100, indicating accruals and receivables contribute to low earnings quality.
- DEPI = 0.9517: depreciation index below 1.0 suggests no obvious slowing of depreciation that would inflate income (DEPI < 1 tends not to indicate asset-life inflation).
- SGAI = 0.9093: selling, general & administrative expenses relative to sales have not expanded (SGAI < 1), reducing one common source of margin manipulation.
- No accumulated losses and parent company net loss years = 0: undistributed earnings are positive and the parent has not reported a net loss in the tested period.
- Director-deal registrations net +0.09% and only 1 purchase registration (133,200 shares) with 0 sale registrations in the last year: insider registration activity is limited in both count and net volume (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not trades).
- Major institutional ownership: large, stable institutions hold most shares (50.0%, 19.6%, 18.1%) which can correlate with greater scrutiny and governance oversight.
Shareholding is highly concentrated: Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Nc Việt Nam holds 50.0%, Sumitomo Forestry 19.6%, and Whitlam Holding 18.1%. This concentrated institutional ownership, together with a small individual holding (Nguyễn Minh Tuấn 2.0%), implies control is largely with a few entities; director-deal registrations show modest insider purchase registration (133,200 shares, +0.09% of shares outstanding).
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) to "Receivables and long-term receivables" (or the equivalent schedule) to reconcile the 13.1% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties (related parties, suppliers, employees).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and management discussion to confirm drivers of the 3-year cash conversion ratio 0.66 and explain large timing differences or non-cash items.
- Review the revenue recognition policy note and the trade receivables ageing / allowance schedules to investigate the DSRI = 1.2493 signal and the Revenue-quality = 0.0/100 score.
- Inspect the related-party transactions and balances note for loans, prepayments or guarantees to see whether material non-trade receivables are intra-group or with named counterparties (useful given VAS and group-structure prevalence).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.04
- P/S
- 0.98
- ROE
- 11.8%
- ROA
- 8.0%
- EPS
- 3.342
- BVPS
- 28.750
- Gross Margin
- 29.2%
- Net Margin
- 10.9%
- D/E
- 0.29
- Current Ratio
- 2.19
- Rev Growth
- +15.5%
- Profit Growth
- +20.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.28
- Div Yield
- 6.7%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 151M
- Charter Capital
- 1,508B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
- Sub-industry
- Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
- Company Type
- CT