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VTE

Công ty Cổ phần VINACAP Kim Long

VietnamTechnologyCông nghệ Thông tinThiết bị và Phần cứngUPCOMCT
6.900
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+20.9%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
6.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.345

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Công nghệ Thông tin→Technology
Classified as technology because ICB sector “Công nghệ Thông tin” maps to the technology group.
ModelDCF + P/E Blend
Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF lets growth fade more slowly than in any other sector, recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Technical details
Why this model

Tech firms combine high growth potential with current profitability that peers can benchmark. Pure DCF could overvalue if growth assumptions are too aggressive. The P/E blend acts as a market-calibrated anchor, while the PEG-based cap prevents paying excessive multiples.

How it works

DCF: 10-year FCF projection with growth capped at 20%, fading more slowly than in any other sector toward the sector's long-run growth rate. P/E: 5-year median P/E capped at dynamic ceiling (growth x 1.5, max 30). Blend: 60% DCF + 40% P/E.

Best for

Technology and IT companies where high growth potential must be balanced against the risk of speculative overvaluation.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.80%
Ke
12.80%
x
E/(D+E)
80.15%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.56%
x
D/(D+E)
19.85%
=
WACC
11.17%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default8.00%
Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Max fair P/E→12x
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→6.900
Calibrated value vs last close→+20.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.345
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.17%
Growth rate8.00%growth method: default
Base cash flowone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth5.0%6.5%8.0%9.5%11.0%
9.2%9.6549.6549.6549.6549.654
10.2%8.9608.9609.6549.6549.654
11.2%8.9608.9608.9608.9609.654
12.2%8.3458.3458.9608.9608.960
13.2%8.3458.3458.3458.3458.960
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·316303268286327368348351349351465317
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·723825282127341941303111
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·97000300.800000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·133156124123155157148146147198267177
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·5711.0101714221018812
Net Inventories
·100101118134151152164181156122165129
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·100101118134151152164181156122165129
Other current assets
·20.30.40.30.310.955121
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·10810121414202626283847
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·7810111414192323273543
Tangible fixed assets
·7810111414192323273543
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·000000000034
Investments in associate companies
·000000000034
Other non-current assets
·0.040.060.30.50.080.113210.080.1
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.040.060.30.50.080.113210.080.1
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·326312278298340382368377375379503365
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·155142108127169206193206203212348220
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·155142108127169206193206203212348220
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·4233598311095115117125122133108
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·550.51.00.141662220.42
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.030.030.030.030.040.20.0400000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·171169170171172176175171172167155144
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·171169170171172176175171172167155144
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·156156156156156156156156156156156156
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·888888888777
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·20.51238633−0.9−13−24
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·326312278298340382368377375379503365
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·010000000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·156156156156156156156156156156156156
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
71
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
8
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 1.17 · 96th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +4.42
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.541
GMI
1.424
AQI
10.000
SGI
1.576
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.638
TATA
−0.074
LVGI
1.041

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
24.6998th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
1.7%45th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.1743 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +4.42), which measures statistical signals associated with earnings manipulation and is high relative to Vietnamese peers and has moved sharply year-on-year. Component signals are mixed: AQI = 10.000 (high), GMI = 1.4241 (gross margin deterioration), SGI = 1.5764 (sales growth), while DSRI = 0.5408 and TATA = -0.0740 point in the opposite direction. Other health metrics are mixed: Altman Z-Score 2.77 (grey zone for bankruptcy distance) and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 (generally strong fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 1.1743 (96th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +4.42): the M-Score combines eight ratios to flag accounting signals; this company scores high versus Vietnamese peers and the score rose markedly in one year.
  • AQI = 10.0000: the Asset Quality Index (AQI) measures increases in non-current/illiquid assets (e.g., receivables, other long-term assets) relative to assets; a value of 10 is unusually high and indicates large increases in capitalised or slow-turning assets.
  • GMI = 1.4241: the Gross Margin Index >1 signals that gross margin has deteriorated year-over-year (costs rising faster than sales or margin compression).
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 24.69 (98th percentile): over three years operating cash has been very low relative to reported profit, indicating profits are not converting into cash (the company ranks among the weakest on this metric among Vietnamese non-financials).
  • Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 8.2/100 in the Earnings Quality Score: these low subscores indicate weak signals for sustainable revenue and margin quality despite high scores on accruals and receivables quality.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI = 0.5408: the Days Sales Receivable Index <1 suggests receivables are not growing faster than sales (i.e., no clear receivables buildup relative to revenue).
  • TATA = -0.0740: Total Accruals to Total Assets negative indicates conservative or low accruals over the period (accruals are not strongly positive).
  • SGAI = 0.6382: the Sales, General & Admin Index <1 suggests SGA expenses have not grown faster than sales (cost control on SGA relative to revenue).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.7% of total assets (45th percentile): the absolute level of non-trade receivables / long-term receivables and prepayments is modest relative to peers.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 7/9: the nine-point score of operational and accounting fundamentals is high, indicating generally strong profitability, cash flow, and balance-sheet metrics on the F-Score components.
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is concentrated: Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam (institution) holds 32.0%, and four named individuals together hold 42.2% (Ngô Thị Kiều Trang 18.0%, Nguyễn Thanh Hà 12.7%, Ngô Phúc Lâm 10.4%, Nguyễn Thị Huệ 1.1%). The largest shareholder is the national postal/telecom group (a major institutional/group owner), implying potential group and state influence in transactions and related-party flows. Director-deal registrations in the last year show 3 sale registrations (4,992,000 shares, 3 traders, 2 registrations without volume disclosed) and 1 purchase registration (1 trader without volume), which are intentions recorded with the exchange rather than executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) for ‘Prepayments’, ‘Loans to related parties’ and ‘Other long-term receivables’ with the balance-sheet line(s) that feed the AQI; quantify the year-on-year change that produces AQI = 10.0000.
  • Reconcile the cash-flow statement to profit: trace the items between profit before tax and operating cash flow to explain the 3-year cash-conversion ratio = 24.69 (check changes in working capital, non-cash adjustments, and one-off items in the cash-flow notes).
  • Review the revenue and cost-of-goods-sold notes and any segment disclosure to explain GMI = 1.4241 and the Revenue quality = 0.0/100 score (check for large one-off sales, related-party revenue, or changes in revenue recognition policies).
  • Inspect the related-party transaction schedule and the notes on transactions with the largest shareholders / group entities (VNPT and other insiders) for transfers, loans, guarantees, or atypical commercial terms that could relate to high AQI or weak cash conversion.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.77
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.36
Positive
Composite
39
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover1.64×Leverage1.90=ROE1.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
+68.1%
Volatility
113.6%
Max Drawdown
−54.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
46.68P/E
P/B
0.63
P/S
0.20
ROE
1.4%
ROA
0.7%
EPS
148
BVPS
10.984
Gross Margin
5.1%
Net Margin
0.4%
D/E
0.25
Current Ratio
2.04
Rev Growth
+57.6%
Profit Growth
+463.6%
EV/EBITDA
8.13
Div Yield
0.6%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
15.6M
Charter Capital
156B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Công nghệ Thông tin
Industry (ICB L3)
Thiết bị và Phần cứng
Sub-industry
Thiết bị viễn thông
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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