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VTC

Công ty Cổ phần Viễn Thông VTC

VietnamTechnologyCông nghệ Thông tinThiết bị và Phần cứngHNXCT
9.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+6.0%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
9.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.544

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Công nghệ Thông tin→Technology
Classified as technology because ICB sector “Công nghệ Thông tin” maps to the technology group.
ModelDCF + P/E Blend
Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF lets growth fade more slowly than in any other sector, recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Technical details
Why this model

Tech firms combine high growth potential with current profitability that peers can benchmark. Pure DCF could overvalue if growth assumptions are too aggressive. The P/E blend acts as a market-calibrated anchor, while the PEG-based cap prevents paying excessive multiples.

How it works

DCF: 10-year FCF projection with growth capped at 20%, fading more slowly than in any other sector toward the sector's long-run growth rate. P/E: 5-year median P/E capped at dynamic ceiling (growth x 1.5, max 30). Blend: 60% DCF + 40% P/E.

Best for

Technology and IT companies where high growth potential must be balanced against the risk of speculative overvaluation.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.80%
Ke
12.80%
x
E/(D+E)
42.32%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.46%
x
D/(D+E)
57.68%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.00%
Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Max fair P/E→8x
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+6.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.544
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate5.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flowone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%8.0%
8.0%9.5449.5449.54410.88510.885
9.0%N/AN/AN/AN/A8.235
10.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
11.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
12.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·585238248234223344505444403164889849
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·3425161732184750332410511
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.90.30.34111818182130.260.06
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·38412915914311925938731830193627518
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·3158651252813430.41.0
Net Inventories
·156837268615052584643161113
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·156837268615053584843161113
Other current assets
·1010.911.00.10.60.720.70.90.58
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000006
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·26202327313832303035403837
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·10.90.90.70.8111.00.810.40.40
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·10.90.90.70.8111.00.810.40.40
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·19151821273323222425282727
Tangible fixed assets
·14141521263223222325272726
Leased assets
·50.920000000000
Intagible fixed assets
·00.030.050.080.10.20.090.10.20.20.10.050.06
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000000.4004765
Investments in associate companies
·0000000000765
Other non-current assets
·5455446655545
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·5445446655544
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·61025827126125438253647443319912913786
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·529178190177166284440380342112506621
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·523176187177166284440380342111486620
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·233801089275104148179127399142
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·110.40.8119185100.40.0800.01
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·6230000001200.5
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·6120000001200
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·81808184889896939086797148
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·81808184889896939086797148
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·45454545454545454545454545
Other Reserves
·0000000005553
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·00111013119777775
Other Reserves
·0000000.30.40.40.20.911
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·23231213152423201770.9−6−8
Minority Interest
·00000000000017
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·61025827126125438253647443319912913786
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000000030.300
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·45454545454545454545454545
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·1212121515181920202019180

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
6
Poor
Accrual Quality
24
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 0.41 · 95th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +3.63
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.353
GMI
2.036
AQI
0.536
SGI
2.210
DEPI
1.379
SGAI
0.580
TATA
0.234
LVGI
1.264

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−15.022nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
5.3%69th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The accounting signals show multiple concerns about earnings quality and financial distress: a Beneish M‑Score of 0.408 (95th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year‑over‑year change +3.63) indicates materially more aggressive accounting than most local peers, while the Earnings‑Quality composite is very low at 6.1/100 and the Altman Z‑Score is 1.17 (distress zone). At the same time, there are no accumulated losses and the statutory loss tests in the audited statements are not met.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = 0.408 (measures probability of earnings manipulation traits); this is at the 95th percentile against Vietnamese peers, meaning VTC scores more aggressively on the model than ~95% of non‑financial Vietnamese listed companies.
  • M‑Score year‑over‑year change = +3.63 (measures the trajectory of the M‑Score); a large positive change indicates accounting signals have moved materially toward more aggressive readings in the last year.
  • DSRI = 1.3529 (Days Sales in Receivables Index; higher values can indicate revenue being recorded earlier or receivables growth outpacing sales).
  • GMI = 2.0362 (Gross Margin Index; >1 can indicate deteriorating gross margins which management might try to mask).
  • DEPI = 1.3785 (Depreciation Index; >1 can indicate slower depreciation vs prior year, which inflates profits).
  • TATA = 0.2340 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; relatively elevated accruals, contributing to low accruals quality score of 24.3/100).
  • Earnings‑Quality Score = 6.1/100 (an aggregate measure of how much reported earnings reflect underlying cash and sustainable margins).
  • Cash conversion (3‑year OCF / net profit) = -15.02 (2nd percentile among Vietnamese peers; indicates profits are not converting into cash flows).
  • Altman Z‑Score = 1.17 (measures bankruptcy distance; this sits in the distress zone).
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 2/9 (measures nine fundamentals of profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency; a low score indicates weak fundamentals).
  • Revenue quality, margin quality, receivables quality, and cash conversion all scored 0.0/100 in the earnings‑quality components (each measures different facets of revenue persistence, margin sustainability, collectibility of receivables, and cash realisation).
Positive Signals
  • No accumulated losses: undistributed earnings are positive (the balance sheet shows retained earnings not negative).
  • Statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (as amended) are not met in the audited annual statements (the factual tests that would trigger listing cancellation have not occurred).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.3% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables); this sits at the 69th percentile among Vietnamese peers, so the level is not unusually high by local standards.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam holds 46.7% and an individual, Lê Xuân Tiến, holds 20.4%, together giving large controlling stakes. Director‑deal disclosures show 2 sale registrations totalling 3,044,178 shares (net registered volume = -57.14% of shares outstanding) between 2025‑10‑30 and 2026‑10‑30; these are exchange trade registrations (intentions), not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the recorded components of DSRI (trade receivables vs revenue) in the notes to trade receivables and the revenue recognition policy to see what is driving DSRI = 1.3529.
  • Reconcile cash flow from operating activities to reported net profit in the statement of cash flows and the notes to verify the 3‑year cash conversion ratio of -15.02 and identify unusual non‑cash accruals (supporting the TATA = 0.2340 and accruals quality = 24.3/100).
  • Inspect the notes labelled 'Related party transactions' and schedules of prepayments/loans to third parties to confirm the composition of the 5.3% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Review the auditor's report and the statutory statements to confirm that none of the Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) loss conditions are met and to read any emphasis of matter or going concern paragraphs that may relate to the Altman Z‑Score = 1.17.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.17
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.52
Positive
Composite
35
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.77×Interest Burden3.01×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover0.86×Leverage7.54=ROE4.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
+62.7%
Volatility
58.8%
Max Drawdown
−61.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.48P/E
P/B
0.71
P/S
0.09
ROE
5.7%
ROA
0.9%
EPS
867
BVPS
15.154
Gross Margin
10.1%
Net Margin
0.8%
D/E
2.95
Current Ratio
1.12
Rev Growth
+121.0%
Profit Growth
+11.0%
EV/EBITDA
14.40
Div Yield
6.5%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
5.3M
Charter Capital
53.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Công nghệ Thông tin
Industry (ICB L3)
Thiết bị và Phần cứng
Sub-industry
Thiết bị viễn thông
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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