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ABC

Công ty Cổ phần Truyền thông VMG

VietnamTechnologyViễn thôngViễn thông di độngUPCOMCT
9.600
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+20.9%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
9.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
11.610

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Viễn thông→Technology
Classified as technology because ICB sector “Viễn thông” maps to the technology group.
ModelDCF + P/E Blend
Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF lets growth fade more slowly than in any other sector, recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Technical details
Why this model

Tech firms combine high growth potential with current profitability that peers can benchmark. Pure DCF could overvalue if growth assumptions are too aggressive. The P/E blend acts as a market-calibrated anchor, while the PEG-based cap prevents paying excessive multiples.

How it works

DCF: 10-year FCF projection with growth capped at 20%, fading more slowly than in any other sector toward the sector's long-run growth rate. P/E: 5-year median P/E capped at dynamic ceiling (growth x 1.5, max 30). Blend: 60% DCF + 40% P/E.

Best for

Technology and IT companies where high growth potential must be balanced against the risk of speculative overvaluation.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.80%
Ke
12.80%
x
E/(D+E)
79.09%
+
Kd(1-t)
8.41%
x
D/(D+E)
20.91%
=
WACC
11.89%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default8.00%
Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Max fair P/E→12x
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.600
Calibrated value vs last close→+20.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
11.610
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.89%
Growth rate8.00%growth method: default
Base cash flowone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth5.0%6.5%8.0%9.5%11.0%
9.9%11.61011.61011.61011.61012.466
10.9%11.61011.61011.61011.61011.610
11.9%11.61011.61011.61011.61011.610
12.9%11.61011.61011.61011.61011.610
13.9%11.61011.61011.61011.61011.610
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7198155465736707487637905571,123845697722
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·17924588561110676474155312320409
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·7114312248138253292370249334173152155
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·463420403199351301177197161524264169112
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·2212733415356757
Net Inventories
·0.05112162215513353101895339
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0.05112162215513353101895339
Other current assets
·5642691521627227209727
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000006
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·648295179254132954215356595558
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·2223334312220
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·2223334312220
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·137193018532937383134
Tangible fixed assets
·0.30.61358532533342729
Intagible fixed assets
·0.9261625100.060.144444
Investment in properties
·171819202122232400000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·4444651331958359811781288
Investment in joint ventures
·0000007000000
Investments in associate companies
·35353566170.77671277
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·999990.700.70.70.70.70.70.7
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−31−31−31−0.1−0.1−0.1−0.1−0.100000
Goodwill
·0000000000008
Other non-current assets
·0.570.745634697159
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.570.735610.9246117
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7838976417529248818588327101,179904752780
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1934061432011,151518289269165489288160186
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1924051421941,144511283262159483288160186
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·15626411242022071391162061900
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.2334551044441374
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·21177777760.60.10.1
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·590491498551−227363569563545690616592568
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·590491498551−227363569563545690616592568
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·204204204204204204204204204204204204204
Other Reserves
·000000000000.080.08
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·2626132222222222
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·120224259−719−132696648137137118123
Minority Interest
·00000000000026
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·7838976417529248818588327101,179904752780
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00120000000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·204204204204204204204204204204204204204
Good will (Bn. VND)
·0000002345250
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·00047475055525210734280

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
30
Poor
Accrual Quality
39
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −2.03 · 64th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.43
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.959
GMI
0.047
AQI
0.904
SGI
1.151
DEPI
1.173
SGAI
1.717
TATA
0.180
LVGI
0.543

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−1.8710th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.5%24th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -2.0348 (64th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.43, indicating accounting metrics moved toward more aggressive settings relative to peers though the raw score sits slightly below the US -1.78 cutoff. Earnings-quality is weak overall at 29.6/100 (notably Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin & Revenue quality 0.0/100) while solvency and operating fundamentals look healthier: Altman Z-Score 3.84 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 6/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -2.0348 (64th percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +2.43) — this measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios; the YoY move shows the accounting profile has trended toward more aggressive values relative to last year.
  • SGAI (Selling, General & Administrative index) = 1.7167 — measures unusually large growth in SG&A relative to sales; high SGAI can signal expense capitalization or timing shifts in expense recognition.
  • DEPI (Depreciation index) = 1.1726 — measures declining depreciation expense relative to gross PPE (which can inflate profits by reducing periodic depreciation).
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1805 — measures accrual intensity; a relatively high positive accruals ratio indicates profit not matched by cash flows.
  • LVGI (Leverage index) = 0.5428 — measures a fall in leverage (lower leverage index <1 can be associated with changes in financing or reclassification), which contributes to the M-Score movement.
  • Earnings Quality score 29.6/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100 — the company shows weak conversion of reported profit into cash and weak margin persistence.
  • Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -1.87 (10th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — over three years profits have not translated into operating cash, a liquidity/earnings quality concern.
  • Director-deal registrations: one sale registration of 5,772,000 shares (net registered volume -28.31% of shares outstanding) disclosed during 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 — registrations are intentions registered with the exchange, not actual executed trades.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.5% of total assets (24th percentile) — measures prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables; the level is low relative to peers and suggests limited off-cycle receivables buildup.
  • AQI (Asset quality index) = 0.9041 — measures changes in non-current assets and write-offs; AQI <1 indicates no clear large increase in potentially write-down-prone assets relative to previous year.
  • DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables index) = 0.9587 — measures receivables growth relative to sales; DSRI below 1 suggests receivables have not grown faster than revenue.
  • Altman Z-Score = 3.84 (safe zone) — measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios; the score indicates a comfortable buffer against bankruptcy risk on the standard Altman scale.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 — a neutral-to-positive signal on fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency) rather than a failing fundamental profile.
Ownership Risk

Top shareholder is Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam (institution) with 28.3% — a concentrated, likely strategic/state-related holding. Insiders/individuals hold smaller stakes (largest individual 3.9%). Director-deal registrations show a large sale intention registered equivalent to -28.31% of shares outstanding, but registrations are not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 operating cash flow and the cash-flow statement line items with net profit to verify the three-year cash-conversion ratio cited (-1.87).
  • Match the Receivables and Other Receivables / Prepayments notes in the FY2025 financial statements to the 0.5% of total assets figure for receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Inspect the notes to property, plant and equipment (PPE) for changes in depreciation policy or useful lives to reconcile DEPI = 1.1726 (declining depreciation expense relative to gross PPE).
  • Review the SG&A note and management discussion for explanations of the SG A increase (SGAI = 1.7167) — look for reclassifications, one-off items, or capitalization policies.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.84
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.16
Negative
Composite
90
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.97×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.08×Turnover1.69×Leverage1.33=ROE16.7%
Price Risk
Momentum
−2.9%
Volatility
24.6%
Max Drawdown
−37.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
2.07P/E
P/B
0.35
P/S
0.15
ROE
18.3%
ROA
11.7%
EPS
4.839
BVPS
28.915
Gross Margin
1.9%
Net Margin
7.5%
D/E
0.26
Current Ratio
3.75
Rev Growth
+15.1%
Profit Growth
+1304.2%
EV/EBITDA
1.58
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
20.4M
Charter Capital
204B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Viễn thông
Industry (ICB L3)
Viễn thông di động
Sub-industry
Viễn thông di động
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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