Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 13.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 15.101
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.4118th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 82.8%100th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 3.5779 (Vietnam peer percentile 99th; year-over-year change +2.96), indicating materially more aggressive accounting metrics versus Vietnamese peers and a sharp upward move in the score. Key signals behind the M-Score are an extremely high DSRI (7.2306) and elevated SGAI (1.2338); earnings-quality metrics show very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100) while Altman Z-Score is 23.39 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score = 3.5779. The M-Score is an aggregate model designed to detect accounting manipulation risk; the company sits at the 99th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting metrics) and the M-Score rose by +2.96 year-over-year, a large move relative to typical persistence.
- Days’ Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 7.2306. DSRI measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; a DSRI this large indicates receivables (or related items recorded as revenue timing) have grown far faster than revenue.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 82.8% of total assets (100th percentile). This measures the proportion of assets classified as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables rather than trade receivables within the normal operating cycle, and it is very large versus peers.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -0.41 (18th percentile). This three-year cash conversion ratio shows profits have not converted into operating cash; the negative ratio and low percentile point to persistent cash-generation weakness relative to reported earnings.
- Earnings-quality composite = 27.2/100 with Revenue quality = 0.6/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. These component scores indicate concerns over the sustainability and recognizability of reported revenue and the quality of receivables.
- Total accruals / assets (TATA) = 0.1002. TATA measures discretionary accruals; a positive value of 0.1002 indicates accruals are contributing to reported earnings rather than cash flows.
- Altman Z-Score = 23.39 (safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a distance-to-bankruptcy measure and a value this high indicates low bankruptcy probability on the model's variables.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9. The F-Score evaluates recent fundamental improvements; a 6 indicates a mix of recoveries and stable fundamentals (profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency) rather than clear deterioration.
- Margin quality = 81.1/100. This component measures the stability and plausibility of reported margins and is relatively strong compared with other earnings-quality components.
- SGAI = 1.2338 (selling, general and administrative expenses growth). While elevated SGAI can be a concern if used to disguise other items, it can also reflect legitimate investment in selling/marketing and is captured here as a distinctive driver of the M-Score.
Tập đoàn Vingroup (VIC) holds 65.3% (control) and a state entity holds 10.0%; the company is part of a listed group where the parent also controls VEF, VHM and VPL. High parent control (65.3%) concentrates decision-making and increases related-party and group-transaction risk under Vietnamese group and VAS reporting conventions.
- Compare the 2025 schedule/note for 'receivables and prepayments' with the revenue note: reconcile the line items that compose the 82.8% of total assets labelled as prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables.
- Reconcile operating cash flow (cash flow statement) with reported net profit for 2023–2025 and inspect the notes to the cash flow statement and any reconciliation of profit-to-cash to understand drivers of the -0.41 three-year cash conversion.
- Inspect the related-party transactions note for loans, advances, guarantees or group prepayments (including disclosures to the listed parent VIC) to see whether large balances explain the elevated DSRI (7.2306) and receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Examine the accounting policy notes and an allowance-for-doubtful-debts schedule to assess provisioning against the receivables/prepayments and the TATA-accrual components (TATA = 0.1002).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.78
- P/S
- 31.25
- ROE
- 7.3%
- ROA
- 7.1%
- EPS
- 1.223
- BVPS
- 17.459
- Gross Margin
- 42.5%
- Net Margin
- 279.1%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 6.10
- Rev Growth
- −6.2%
- Profit Growth
- +10.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 67.9M
- Charter Capital
- 679B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Truyền thông
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Truyền thông
- Sub-industry
- Sách, ấn bản & sản phẩm văn hóa
- Company Type
- CT