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VNB

Công ty Cổ phần Sách Việt Nam

VietnamConsumerTruyền thôngUPCOMCT
13.500
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+11.9%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
13.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.101

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Truyền thông→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Truyền thông” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.797
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.60%
Ke
10.60%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
10.60%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→37.55B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→13.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+11.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.101
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.60%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow37.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 3.96

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
8.6%15.76415.76415.76415.76415.764
9.6%15.48215.48215.48215.48215.764
10.6%15.13315.13315.13315.13315.133
11.6%15.13315.13315.13315.13315.133
12.6%15.13315.13315.13315.13315.133
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1891381,0349549041798397407117254539
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·332131.0221881002322
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·79112139132149164177126541200
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·98148838017475651604562609149
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.010.0100.10.40.40.40.40.70.710.9
Net Inventories
·10911778997588
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1311129891097588
Other current assets
·0.3000.030.0200000.000.100.1
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000.090.1
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,028993222324720283538386458
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·1,0089720.10.10.16940.10.10.1000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.1450.10.10.11440.10.10.1000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·334456789102526
Tangible fixed assets
·334456789102526
Intagible fixed assets
·000000.040.090.10.20.200
Investment in properties
·6788891011131400
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·44444449991919
Investments in associate companies
·444444433333
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000001515151515
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·0000000−9−9−900
Other non-current assets
·0.40.40.50.30.40.40.50.60.40.42013
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.40.40.50.30.40.40.50.60.40.42013
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,2171,1311,05697792889886777574876310997
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·31282918913191723594229
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·31282818812181722592116
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.080.040.030.010.020.060.300.60.030.40.5
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.50.60.30.50.90.20.30.50.60.72013
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·00000000001912
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1,1851,1021,0279589188868487587267046868
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,1851,1021,0279589188868487587267046868
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·6796796796796796796796796796796464
Other Reserves
·000000000033
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·00000000000.90.8
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·435352276208168135978−25−4700
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,2171,1311,05697792889886777574876311097
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·010827770550055055055060000
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·1,008927000550000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·6796796796796796796796796796796464

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
27
Poor
Accrual Quality
60
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
81
Revenue Quality
1

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 3.58 · 99th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.96
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
7.231
GMI
0.976
AQI
0.963
SGI
0.938
DEPI
0.930
SGAI
1.234
TATA
0.100
LVGI
1.035

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.4118th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
82.8%100th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 3.5779 (Vietnam peer percentile 99th; year-over-year change +2.96), indicating materially more aggressive accounting metrics versus Vietnamese peers and a sharp upward move in the score. Key signals behind the M-Score are an extremely high DSRI (7.2306) and elevated SGAI (1.2338); earnings-quality metrics show very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100) while Altman Z-Score is 23.39 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 3.5779. The M-Score is an aggregate model designed to detect accounting manipulation risk; the company sits at the 99th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting metrics) and the M-Score rose by +2.96 year-over-year, a large move relative to typical persistence.
  • Days’ Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 7.2306. DSRI measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; a DSRI this large indicates receivables (or related items recorded as revenue timing) have grown far faster than revenue.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 82.8% of total assets (100th percentile). This measures the proportion of assets classified as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables rather than trade receivables within the normal operating cycle, and it is very large versus peers.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -0.41 (18th percentile). This three-year cash conversion ratio shows profits have not converted into operating cash; the negative ratio and low percentile point to persistent cash-generation weakness relative to reported earnings.
  • Earnings-quality composite = 27.2/100 with Revenue quality = 0.6/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. These component scores indicate concerns over the sustainability and recognizability of reported revenue and the quality of receivables.
  • Total accruals / assets (TATA) = 0.1002. TATA measures discretionary accruals; a positive value of 0.1002 indicates accruals are contributing to reported earnings rather than cash flows.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 23.39 (safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a distance-to-bankruptcy measure and a value this high indicates low bankruptcy probability on the model's variables.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9. The F-Score evaluates recent fundamental improvements; a 6 indicates a mix of recoveries and stable fundamentals (profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency) rather than clear deterioration.
  • Margin quality = 81.1/100. This component measures the stability and plausibility of reported margins and is relatively strong compared with other earnings-quality components.
  • SGAI = 1.2338 (selling, general and administrative expenses growth). While elevated SGAI can be a concern if used to disguise other items, it can also reflect legitimate investment in selling/marketing and is captured here as a distinctive driver of the M-Score.
Ownership Risk

Tập đoàn Vingroup (VIC) holds 65.3% (control) and a state entity holds 10.0%; the company is part of a listed group where the parent also controls VEF, VHM and VPL. High parent control (65.3%) concentrates decision-making and increases related-party and group-transaction risk under Vietnamese group and VAS reporting conventions.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 schedule/note for 'receivables and prepayments' with the revenue note: reconcile the line items that compose the 82.8% of total assets labelled as prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow (cash flow statement) with reported net profit for 2023–2025 and inspect the notes to the cash flow statement and any reconciliation of profit-to-cash to understand drivers of the -0.41 three-year cash conversion.
  • Inspect the related-party transactions note for loans, advances, guarantees or group prepayments (including disclosures to the listed parent VIC) to see whether large balances explain the elevated DSRI (7.2306) and receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Examine the accounting policy notes and an allowance-for-doubtful-debts schedule to assess provisioning against the receivables/prepayments and the TATA-accrual components (TATA = 0.1002).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
23.39
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.58
Negative
Composite
55
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin3.49×Turnover0.02×Leverage1.03=ROE7.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
+7.7%
Volatility
50.3%
Max Drawdown
−35.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.20P/E
P/B
0.78
P/S
31.25
ROE
7.3%
ROA
7.1%
EPS
1.223
BVPS
17.459
Gross Margin
42.5%
Net Margin
279.1%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
6.10
Rev Growth
−6.2%
Profit Growth
+10.4%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
67.9M
Charter Capital
679B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Truyền thông
Industry (ICB L3)
Truyền thông
Sub-industry
Sách, ấn bản & sản phẩm văn hóa
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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