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DVN

Tổng Công ty Dược Việt Nam - CTCP

VietnamConsumerY tếDược phẩmUPCOMCT
17.200
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
17.200
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
20.084

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Y tế→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Y tế” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.598
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
9.73%
Ke
9.73%
x
E/(D+E)
73.49%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.03%
x
D/(D+E)
26.51%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→517.96B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→17.200
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
20.084
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow518.0 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
8.0%21.12021.12021.12021.12021.120
9.0%20.08420.08420.08420.08420.084
10.0%19.28019.72619.72620.08420.084
11.0%19.28019.28019.28019.28019.280
12.0%19.24019.24019.24019.24019.240
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4,7104,3634,2303,7673,7683,9433,5243,6474,0984,6704,3274,2333,724
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·912891048319483119170256953914765550
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·644756923635673602496358247283196150135
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1,9161,6461,7781,8271,8041,8161,5831,6361,9082,1031,8061,8361,852
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·24328039197146523420233943
Net Inventories
·2,0031,6331,3941,1881,0581,4021,2931,4451,6401,2951,3811,4211,145
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·2,0161,6631,4561,2161,0811,4151,3141,4561,6421,2951,3811,4261,150
Other current assets
·56393134394132384736316342
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000002721
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,9432,0921,9982,0112,0942,1602,1862,0662,0171,6382,4581,4431,386
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·10.72220.120.1100.21.000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·10.72220.120.1100.20.200
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·268281301320331322340320243267437443475
Tangible fixed assets
·164174192208218206222235155180398382424
Intagible fixed assets
·104107110112113116118858887394138
Investment in properties
·353648500.800000000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·2,6031,7391,6121,6061,7191,7641,7801,6901,6091,2131,900995907
Investment in joint ventures
·00000000001600
Investments in associate companies
·2,0339888658408909719388758326641,636874800
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·698871871863834834822797784549247121107
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−140−120−123−97−4−41−14−15−700−0.070
Goodwill
·000000000000.060.08
Other non-current assets
·323534323635385271697654
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·303130323635385271697644
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7,6526,4556,2285,7785,8626,1035,7095,7146,1146,3086,7855,6765,110
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·3,6212,9462,9913,0132,8673,1942,8883,0533,6084,0443,2673,3282,963
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3,5892,9142,9302,9462,8163,1372,8202,9963,5483,9893,1823,1832,810
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·1,5881,2081,1379881,1821,2291,2111,3341,5661,1991,2421,2311,040
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·3923364658586778667510310566
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3231616651576857605584145153
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·3030313639455642465378127134
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·4,0323,5103,2372,7662,9952,9092,8212,6612,5062,2643,4882,2902,093
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·4,0323,5103,2372,7662,9952,9092,8212,6612,5062,2643,4882,2902,093
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·2,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,370449440440
Other Reserves
·585858585858242400.1000
Difference upon Assets Revaluation
·−367−388−388−433−523−540−540−540−563−61583400
Foreign Currency Difference reserve
·0−0.01−6−5−133444000
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·418416349333244168160150133133629637598
Other Reserves
·1.01.01.01.01.01.010.40.40.300.060.2
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1,261793616270676682637488408219907630520
Minority Interest
·0000000000305854
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·7,6526,4556,2285,7785,8626,1035,7095,7146,1146,3086,7855,6765,110
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000000000.800
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·2,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,3702,370449440440
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·292261237172170167167165154154000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
25
Poor
Accrual Quality
50
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
35
Margin Stability
35
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.55 · 79th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.56
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.139
GMI
1.095
AQI
1.246
SGI
1.022
DEPI
1.001
SGAI
0.950
TATA
0.137
LVGI
1.037

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.3118th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.3%19th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5461, above the US -1.78 cutoff but at the 79th percentile among Vietnamese peers, with a year-over-year rise of +0.56, indicating relatively more aggressive accounting metrics versus local peers and a recent move in the score. Earnings-quality diagnostics are weak overall (24.7/100), driven by zero scores on cash conversion and revenue quality, while the Altman Z-Score of 2.37 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 4/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.5461 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +0.56) — the M-Score summarizes several variables associated with earnings manipulation risk; the YoY increase shows accounting behaviour has shifted recently relative to the company’s own history.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1368 — this measures discretionary accruals as a share of assets; a positive TATA can indicate earnings supported by accruals rather than cash.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.2459 — this measures growth in non-current assets and intangibles that can be associated with capitalising costs or reclassifications; a value >1 signals rising relative asset illiquidity.
  • DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.1386 — receivables are growing faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
  • Earnings Quality Score 24.7/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these specific scores indicate that reported profits have not converted into cash (cash conversion) and that revenue patterns raise concerns versus peers or historical norms.
  • Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.31 (18th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — this low/negative ratio shows profits have not translated into operating cash over the last three years.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (19th percentile) — while a small percentage, its low percentile ranking suggests relative weakness versus peers in the composition of receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
  • Altman Z-Score = 2.37 (grey zone) — indicates middle-ground distance to traditional bankruptcy thresholds rather than a strong safety margin.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 — a neutral-to-weak score on nine fundamental checks (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency).
Positive Signals
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.9501 — a ratio below 1 shows SGA expenses growing more slowly than sales, which can be a sign of operating leverage or expense control.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0010 — roughly stable depreciation policy year-over-year, suggesting no large discretionary change in depreciation rates.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0369 — only modest increase in leverage relative to assets; not an extreme leverage jump.
  • No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive — the company’s audited statements do not show undistributed losses and net equity is positive.
  • No net parent loss in any of the most recent 0 years up to FY2025 — the parent company did not report a statutory net loss in the period described.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: the state entity Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước holds 65.0%. The listed group influence is modest (SAM Holdings 4.8%) and institutional ownership is small (PVI Opportunity Fund 2.8%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (director registrations are exchange-filed intentions, not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 operating cash flow and net profit line items in the consolidated cash flow statement and profit & loss to reproduce the three-year cash conversion ratio and note any timing or one-off items.
  • Inspect the notes for receivables (trade receivables, prepayments, loans to related parties, long-term receivables) and reconcile the 0.3% of total assets figure to specific line items and related-party disclosures.
  • Review the property, plant & equipment and intangible asset schedules to verify components driving the AQI = 1.2459 and the DEPI = 1.0010; check for reclassifications or large additions in non-current assets.
  • Reconcile total accruals to total assets (TATA = 0.1368) by comparing profit before tax to cash flows from operations and the changes in working capital items shown in the notes.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.37
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.70
Negative
Composite
84
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.96×Interest Burden1.05×Op. Margin0.14×Turnover0.74×Leverage1.90=ROE19.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
−13.2%
Volatility
19.0%
Max Drawdown
−26.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.55P/E
P/B
1.10
P/S
0.73
ROE
21.1%
ROA
10.5%
EPS
3.116
BVPS
15.781
Gross Margin
9.8%
Net Margin
14.0%
D/E
0.40
Current Ratio
1.31
Rev Growth
+2.9%
Profit Growth
+47.1%
EV/EBITDA
30.81
Div Yield
5.8%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
237M
Charter Capital
2,370B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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