Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 17.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 20.084
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.3118th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%19th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5461, above the US -1.78 cutoff but at the 79th percentile among Vietnamese peers, with a year-over-year rise of +0.56, indicating relatively more aggressive accounting metrics versus local peers and a recent move in the score. Earnings-quality diagnostics are weak overall (24.7/100), driven by zero scores on cash conversion and revenue quality, while the Altman Z-Score of 2.37 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 4/9.
- Beneish M-Score -1.5461 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +0.56) — the M-Score summarizes several variables associated with earnings manipulation risk; the YoY increase shows accounting behaviour has shifted recently relative to the company’s own history.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1368 — this measures discretionary accruals as a share of assets; a positive TATA can indicate earnings supported by accruals rather than cash.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.2459 — this measures growth in non-current assets and intangibles that can be associated with capitalising costs or reclassifications; a value >1 signals rising relative asset illiquidity.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.1386 — receivables are growing faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
- Earnings Quality Score 24.7/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these specific scores indicate that reported profits have not converted into cash (cash conversion) and that revenue patterns raise concerns versus peers or historical norms.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.31 (18th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — this low/negative ratio shows profits have not translated into operating cash over the last three years.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (19th percentile) — while a small percentage, its low percentile ranking suggests relative weakness versus peers in the composition of receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Altman Z-Score = 2.37 (grey zone) — indicates middle-ground distance to traditional bankruptcy thresholds rather than a strong safety margin.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 — a neutral-to-weak score on nine fundamental checks (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency).
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.9501 — a ratio below 1 shows SGA expenses growing more slowly than sales, which can be a sign of operating leverage or expense control.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0010 — roughly stable depreciation policy year-over-year, suggesting no large discretionary change in depreciation rates.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0369 — only modest increase in leverage relative to assets; not an extreme leverage jump.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive — the company’s audited statements do not show undistributed losses and net equity is positive.
- No net parent loss in any of the most recent 0 years up to FY2025 — the parent company did not report a statutory net loss in the period described.
Ownership is highly concentrated: the state entity Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước holds 65.0%. The listed group influence is modest (SAM Holdings 4.8%) and institutional ownership is small (PVI Opportunity Fund 2.8%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (director registrations are exchange-filed intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare FY2025 operating cash flow and net profit line items in the consolidated cash flow statement and profit & loss to reproduce the three-year cash conversion ratio and note any timing or one-off items.
- Inspect the notes for receivables (trade receivables, prepayments, loans to related parties, long-term receivables) and reconcile the 0.3% of total assets figure to specific line items and related-party disclosures.
- Review the property, plant & equipment and intangible asset schedules to verify components driving the AQI = 1.2459 and the DEPI = 1.0010; check for reclassifications or large additions in non-current assets.
- Reconcile total accruals to total assets (TATA = 0.1368) by comparing profit before tax to cash flows from operations and the changes in working capital items shown in the notes.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.10
- P/S
- 0.73
- ROE
- 21.1%
- ROA
- 10.5%
- EPS
- 3.116
- BVPS
- 15.781
- Gross Margin
- 9.8%
- Net Margin
- 14.0%
- D/E
- 0.40
- Current Ratio
- 1.31
- Rev Growth
- +2.9%
- Profit Growth
- +47.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 30.81
- Div Yield
- 5.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 237M
- Charter Capital
- 2,370B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Y tế
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Dược phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Dược phẩm
- Company Type
- CT