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VNP

Công ty Cổ phần Nhựa Việt Nam

VietnamCyclicalsHóa chấtUPCOMCT
16.800
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−4.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
16.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
16.095

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hóa chất” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→−1.86B
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→16.800
Calibrated value vs last close→−4.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
16.095
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA−1.9 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·127193223240253247203175236186207249300
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·15112981861712541081938
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·781341141061369383584141394218
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·117142550863539887390104163
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.91.00.90.90.9111.0131416
Net Inventories
·14325589425760585156637268
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·23417997425760595156647668
Other current assets
·99111264773771213
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000057
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·174173168182205196192217219258242336383
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·17212121212121212121210.020
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·21212121212121212121210.020
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·45678101119296373170176
Tangible fixed assets
·4567810111929566691103
Intagible fixed assets
·000000.030.060.090.1771913
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·147141134146168156151165159171145163195
Investments in associate companies
·147141134146168156151165159171145151195
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000120.6
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000000000000−0.3
Goodwill
·0000000000005
Other non-current assets
·77788991292347
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·7778889992346
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·301367392422458442395392455444450585683
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·2770110129194251229231327375407551518
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2670110128193250220201278317328391420
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·84788106131160143123121123202248218
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·00.710.600.2400,0000.40.558224
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.700.10.50.50.593049587916098
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000009304958799898
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·274296282293264191166161128694327162
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·274296282293264191166160128694327161
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·194194194194194194194194194194194194194
Other Reserves
·0000000000000.2
Foreign Currency Difference reserve
·000000000000−2
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.211.0
Other Reserves
·000000000000.70
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·80102879970−3−29−34−66−126−152−169−32
Budget sources and other funds
·0000033,19933,1990.433,1990.000.500.4
Budget sources and other funds
·0000033,19933,1990.433,1990.000.500.4
Minority Interest
·0000000000083
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·301367392422458442395392455444450585683
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.30.30.30.30.300000000
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000.30.30.30.30.30.300
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·194194194194194194194194194194194194194
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·−0.04−0.020.000.080.100.10.10.10.10.10.100

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
37
Weak
Accrual Quality
83
Cash Conversion
23
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
47

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.87 · 88th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.15
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.918
GMI
1.140
AQI
1.230
SGI
0.536
DEPI
0.841
SGAI
2.565
TATA
0.042
LVGI
0.451

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.0246th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
7.4%75th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows several accounting signals of elevated earnings-management risk versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -0.8734 (88th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.15, driven by a very high DSRI (2.9176) and large SGAI (2.5651). At the same time, solvency and profitability metrics are not distressed: Altman Z-Score 10.36 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -0.8734 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using 8 accounting ratios); company ranks in the 88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and M-Score rose by +2.15 year-over-year (the change signals accounting moving relative to its own history). Note: the US cut-off -1.78 is not directly calibrated to Vietnam.
  • DSRI = 2.9176 (days’ sales receivables index; high values suggest revenue may be recognised earlier than cash collection or receivables growth outpacing sales).
  • SGAI = 2.5651 (sales, general & administrative expense index; a large increase indicates operating expense behavior that can accompany aggressive revenue recognition or expense classification shifts).
  • TATA = 0.0423 (total accruals to total assets; positive but modest accruals indicate some earnings are non-cash).
  • AQI / Receivables signals: Receivables-quality component = 0.0/100 and the Earnings-Quality cash-conversion component = 22.9/100 (both poor), while the company reports 7.4% of total assets as receivables outside the trade cycle (75th percentile among Vietnamese peers). These together point to elevated risk around non-trade receivables, prepayments, or loans receivable being used in place of cash collections.
  • Revenue-quality and margin-quality scores = 47.1/100 and 0.0/100 respectively (weak margin quality and middling revenue quality by the composite metrics), which can reflect volatility in margins or persistence concerns.
  • LVGI = 0.4506 and DEPI = 0.8409 (inventory-related indices): DEPI below 1 suggests slower depletion of inventory; LVGI below 1 indicates some inventory valuation shifts — put together they warrant checking inventory accounting, especially where inventories or prepayments are material.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 10.36 (measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings items; a high score places the company well into the safe zone for financial distress).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of improving/weak financials; 5 is neutral rather than strongly negative).
  • Accruals quality = 83.1/100 (indicates reported accruals are of relatively better quality within the earnings-quality framework).
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minorities) positive; zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025 (statutory loss-related thresholds are not met in the published statements).
  • SGI = 0.5357 (sales growth index below 1 indicates sales have not been accelerating rapidly year-over-year, which reduces one common motive for aggressive recognition tied to rapid growth).
Ownership Risk

The largest shareholder is the state-owned Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước with 65.8% (high concentration and state control); no individual insider stake of material size is reported (Vũ Thị Minh Thục listed at 0.0%). Director-deal registrations were not provided in the input (director deal registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables and other receivables in the notes to the consolidated balance sheet and reconcile to revenue growth (verify the DSRI implication that receivables grew faster than sales).
  • Inspect the 'Prepayments and other long-term receivables' and related-party disclosures to quantify the 7.4% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties, terms and maturities.
  • Reconcile cash flow from operating activities vs. reported net profit in the cash-flow note and the consolidated statement of cash flows to confirm the reported 3-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit) of 1.02.
  • Examine the auditor's report and the notes on accounting estimates, revenue recognition policy, and SGA breakdown to understand drivers behind SGAI = 2.5651 and any changes in expense recognition or reclassifications.
  • Check the statutory statements and equity schedule for accumulated losses, minority interest detail and the parent-company profit line to confirm the company meets the listed statutory facts (no accumulated losses; positive owner's equity; zero consecutive years of parent net loss).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
10.36
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.41
Positive
Composite
39
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden0.99×Op. Margin0.43×Turnover0.14×Leverage1.10=ROE6.5%
Price Risk
Momentum
+37.4%
Volatility
33.3%
Max Drawdown
−33.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
18.29P/E
P/B
1.19
P/S
7.75
ROE
6.3%
ROA
5.3%
EPS
919
BVPS
14.122
Gross Margin
−2.9%
Net Margin
42.3%
D/E
0.03
Current Ratio
4.89
Rev Growth
−46.4%
Profit Growth
+26.3%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
11.9%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
19.4M
Charter Capital
194B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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