Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 16.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 16.095
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0246th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.4%75th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals of elevated earnings-management risk versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -0.8734 (88th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.15, driven by a very high DSRI (2.9176) and large SGAI (2.5651). At the same time, solvency and profitability metrics are not distressed: Altman Z-Score 10.36 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.8734 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using 8 accounting ratios); company ranks in the 88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and M-Score rose by +2.15 year-over-year (the change signals accounting moving relative to its own history). Note: the US cut-off -1.78 is not directly calibrated to Vietnam.
- DSRI = 2.9176 (days’ sales receivables index; high values suggest revenue may be recognised earlier than cash collection or receivables growth outpacing sales).
- SGAI = 2.5651 (sales, general & administrative expense index; a large increase indicates operating expense behavior that can accompany aggressive revenue recognition or expense classification shifts).
- TATA = 0.0423 (total accruals to total assets; positive but modest accruals indicate some earnings are non-cash).
- AQI / Receivables signals: Receivables-quality component = 0.0/100 and the Earnings-Quality cash-conversion component = 22.9/100 (both poor), while the company reports 7.4% of total assets as receivables outside the trade cycle (75th percentile among Vietnamese peers). These together point to elevated risk around non-trade receivables, prepayments, or loans receivable being used in place of cash collections.
- Revenue-quality and margin-quality scores = 47.1/100 and 0.0/100 respectively (weak margin quality and middling revenue quality by the composite metrics), which can reflect volatility in margins or persistence concerns.
- LVGI = 0.4506 and DEPI = 0.8409 (inventory-related indices): DEPI below 1 suggests slower depletion of inventory; LVGI below 1 indicates some inventory valuation shifts — put together they warrant checking inventory accounting, especially where inventories or prepayments are material.
- Altman Z-Score = 10.36 (measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings items; a high score places the company well into the safe zone for financial distress).
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of improving/weak financials; 5 is neutral rather than strongly negative).
- Accruals quality = 83.1/100 (indicates reported accruals are of relatively better quality within the earnings-quality framework).
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minorities) positive; zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025 (statutory loss-related thresholds are not met in the published statements).
- SGI = 0.5357 (sales growth index below 1 indicates sales have not been accelerating rapidly year-over-year, which reduces one common motive for aggressive recognition tied to rapid growth).
The largest shareholder is the state-owned Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước with 65.8% (high concentration and state control); no individual insider stake of material size is reported (Vũ Thị Minh Thục listed at 0.0%). Director-deal registrations were not provided in the input (director deal registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables and other receivables in the notes to the consolidated balance sheet and reconcile to revenue growth (verify the DSRI implication that receivables grew faster than sales).
- Inspect the 'Prepayments and other long-term receivables' and related-party disclosures to quantify the 7.4% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties, terms and maturities.
- Reconcile cash flow from operating activities vs. reported net profit in the cash-flow note and the consolidated statement of cash flows to confirm the reported 3-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit) of 1.02.
- Examine the auditor's report and the notes on accounting estimates, revenue recognition policy, and SGA breakdown to understand drivers behind SGAI = 2.5651 and any changes in expense recognition or reclassifications.
- Check the statutory statements and equity schedule for accumulated losses, minority interest detail and the parent-company profit line to confirm the company meets the listed statutory facts (no accumulated losses; positive owner's equity; zero consecutive years of parent net loss).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.19
- P/S
- 7.75
- ROE
- 6.3%
- ROA
- 5.3%
- EPS
- 919
- BVPS
- 14.122
- Gross Margin
- −2.9%
- Net Margin
- 42.3%
- D/E
- 0.03
- Current Ratio
- 4.89
- Rev Growth
- −46.4%
- Profit Growth
- +26.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 11.9%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 19.4M
- Charter Capital
- 194B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Nhựa, cao su & sợi
- Company Type
- CT