Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 14.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 15.835
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 17 Oct 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.7%30th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.06×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of elevated accrual-based and receivable-related distortion: a Beneish M-Score of 6.7119 (100th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +9.70, driven by a very high DSRI (9.9608) and AQI (7.3727). Earnings-quality components are mixed: accruals quality scores very high (99.8/100) while receivables quality and revenue quality score 0/100 and margin quality is weak (19.3/100); the Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 4/9 and Vietnamese cash-conversion and receivable checks are around the median/low end of the local sample.
- Beneish M-Score = 6.7119 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation versus a US-derived threshold; here the company is at the 100th percentile among Vietnamese peers and the M-Score rose by +9.70 year-over-year, indicating a large change in the underlying ratios).
- DSRI = 9.9608 (Days Sales Receivables Index; this very large value suggests receivables or revenue timing/recognition divergence from past patterns).
- AQI = 7.3727 (Asset Quality Index; elevated value indicates reclassification or capitalization of expenses, or increases in intangible/long‑lived assets versus peers/own history).
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (the earnings-quality model flags both as poorest possible scores, consistent with the high DSRI and weak margin quality).
- LVGI = 3.2704 (Leverage index; indicates leverage and financing changes relative to prior period that can affect reported profit persistence).
- SGAI = 1.6432 (Selling, General & Administrative expenses index >1; suggests SGA rose relative to sales, which can indicate cost reclassification or margin pressure).
- TATA = 0.0006 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; although small here, the rest of the indicators point to timing/revenue/receivable issues rather than pure total-accruals manipulation).
- Accruals quality = 99.8/100 (the model rates accruals as high-quality, indicating total reported accruals are not the primary flagged issue).
- Cash-conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.12 (50th percentile among Vietnamese firms; shows operating cash broadly in line with reported profit over three years rather than being dramatically weaker).
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; net loss in parent profit = 0 years up to FY2020 (these are facts from the statements showing no statutory accumulated-loss trigger).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral; some fundamentals are not severely deteriorated).
Ownership is highly concentrated: SAM Holdings holds 85.7% (control, disclosed 2026-03-31), with two other named individual shareholders at 5.6% and 0.0%. The company is part of a listed group controlled by SAM (which also holds 35.0% of DSP among group listings), so related‑party, intra‑group transactions and capital flows are important contextual factors under VAS and group reporting.
- Compare the year-over-year movement in trade receivables and the receivables aging schedule in the audited notes to the DSRI value (9.9608) and disclose whether receivables growth matches revenue recognition.
- Inspect the ‘Other long‑term receivables / Loans to related parties / Prepayments’ lines and the related‑party note to reconcile the 0.9% of total assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the composition of non-current assets and the notes on additions and reclassifications to assess drivers of the AQI = 7.3727 (capitalized costs, intangible increases or reclassifications).
- Check the statement of cash flows and the reconciliation of profit to cash from operations to confirm the 3‑year cash conversion ratio of 1.12 and to understand timing differences between profit and cash.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.51
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- 0.1%
- ROA
- 0.1%
- EPS
- 10
- BVPS
- 9.420
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.11
- Current Ratio
- 0.97
- Rev Growth
- −100.0%
- Profit Growth
- −41.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 78.6M
- Charter Capital
- 786B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT