Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 1.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.019
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The date of the last close could not be confirmed.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 10.7%82nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.1553 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +3.99, indicating its accounting profile is more aggressive than most domestic peers and that accounting measures have moved materially year-over-year. At the same time, earnings-quality component scores are mixed: accruals, cash-conversion and receivables quality all score 100/100, while margin quality and revenue quality score 0/100. The Altman Z-Score is 0.37 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9 (strong fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.1553 (93rd percentile vs VN peers) — the absolute score is above the US -1.78 cutoff but that cutoff is US-calibrated; the high peer percentile and a year-over-year increase of +3.99 are signals of increased accounting aggressiveness relative to Vietnamese peers.
- SGI (sales growth index) = 4.4420 — measures sales growth; a value >>1 indicates very rapid revenue growth year-over-year, which can pressure recognition policies.
- DEPI (depreciation index) = 1.0928 — measures a slowdown in reported depreciation expense (ratio >1 implies depreciation expense decreased relative to prior period), which can inflate reported earnings.
- LVGI (leverage index) = 0.8027 — measures change in leverage (value <1 indicates leverage increased), so leverage rose versus prior year (a potential financing/solvency concern when combined with Altman score).
- Margin quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100 — the earnings-quality framework flags deterioration in margins and revenue sustainability even though accruals and cash measures look clean.
- Altman Z-Score = 0.37 (distress zone) — this measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and profit measures and implies financial stress by the model's thresholds.
- Accruals quality = 100/100 — the accruals component measures how much earnings are driven by accruals versus cash; a perfect score indicates low accrual-based earnings manipulation signals.
- Cash conversion = 100/100 — operating cashflow converts to reported profit well, which reduces concern about earnings being driven by noncash items.
- Receivables quality = 100/100 — receivables behavior (growth relative to sales, collectability signals) does not raise red flags in the earnings-quality module.
- Piotroski F-Score = 9/9 — the company scores strongly on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency fundamentals (each component of Piotroski is passing).
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = -0.0622 — a small negative TATA indicates total accruals are not a major positive driver of earnings in the period assessed.
Top shareholders are institutional entities with the largest at 7.9% (Công ty TNHH Bắc Nam Thái Nguyên) and several others between 5.9%–7.9%; ownership appears dispersed among institutions rather than controlled by a single dominant shareholder. No director-deal registrations were supplied in the data provided (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the 2025 line items: 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' to the note on receivables to confirm the composition of the 10.7% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile reported depreciation and useful-life disclosures in the fixed-asset note with the DEPI = 1.0928 to see whether changes in depreciation policy or useful lives caused the measured depreciation slowdown.
- Inspect the cashflow statement and the notes to confirm components behind the cash-conversion = 100/100 score (operating cashflow vs reported profit, and any large one-off cash items).
- Review the revenue recognition policy note and major sales/customer schedules to understand drivers of SGI = 4.4420 (very high sales growth) and to verify revenue cut-off, related-party sales and any significant rebates/returns disclosures.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.17
- P/S
- 0.94
- ROE
- 0.0%
- ROA
- 0.0%
- EPS
- 2
- BVPS
- 10.353
- Gross Margin
- 12.5%
- Net Margin
- 0.1%
- D/E
- 0.08
- Current Ratio
- 1.26
- Rev Growth
- +344.2%
- Profit Growth
- +100.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 36.79
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 102M
- Charter Capital
- 1,015B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT