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LGL

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Đô thị Long Giang

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
3.800
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+34.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
3.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.124

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.782
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.54%
Ke
10.54%
x
E/(D+E)
67.82%
+
Kd(1-t)
7.18%
x
D/(D+E)
32.18%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→3.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+34.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.124
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)12.00%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow24.9 tỷone off strip ratio: 1.08

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
10.0%3.3653.7783.7783.7784.237
11.0%N/AN/AN/A3.3643.365
12.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
13.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
14.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·5946741,1131,1531,1021,0991,1161,9541,9021,508501363371·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·106102119661616796393615·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.000.000.0055556665422·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·164275744767713649682538312427205225185·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·781182014146272182121415·
Net Inventories
·4103863533523563754091,2421,449987280124107·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·4103873553533573764101,2421,449987280124107·
Other current assets
·107678440.238508442·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000040·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·823722234482595709657459333324320347367·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·558457222222325494691211110·
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·558457222222325494691211110·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·11.024131721233048404377·
Tangible fixed assets
·10.311256366111013·
Leased assets
·00.70.93357202442292757·
Intagible fixed assets
·00008880.090.10.2066·
Investment in properties
·00000000.0508389107133·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·263263168405413492399144126161141151140·
Investments in associate companies
·2632631674044014583211088572414651·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·272727272749844343125131130116·
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−27−27−27−27−16−16−15−15−1−35−31−26−28·
Goodwill
·0000000000002·
Other non-current assets
·114250881231391566522333015·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·111136534172229272·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,4171,3961,3471,6351,6961,8081,7732,4142,2351,832821710738·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·7207186739769511,0551,0131,6391,7051,479475382438·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·5226476739738968919981,4551,1941,023263226326·
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·29425024017622732139964137044010855109·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·681336438188827034170.641·
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·198710.335516315185511456212156112·
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·57710.30.82723170318326559652·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·698677674658745753760774530353346328282·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·698677674658745753760774530353346328282·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·515515515515515515500500346200200200200·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·43434343434334231412121212·
Other Reserves
·212121212121171166660·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1179782675254901161042391.0−28·
Minority Interest
·00000000000018·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,4171,3961,3471,6351,6961,8081,7732,4142,2351,832821710738·
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·496333252399799342110880·
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·515515515515515515500500346200200200200·
Good will (Bn. VND)
·003644791111271184800.050.80·
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·001211113118117122132028170·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
33
Weak
Accrual Quality
49
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
4

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.67 · 76th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.38
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.539
GMI
1.263
AQI
1.123
SGI
1.104
DEPI
1.639
SGAI
0.178
TATA
0.143
LVGI
0.794

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
43.3%98th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M‑Score is -1.6716 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year move of -0.38, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers and that have shifted this year. Earnings quality components show specific weaknesses (cash conversion 0/100, margin quality 0/100, revenue quality 3.8/100) but also strengths (receivables quality 100/100). The Altman Z‑Score of 0.37 places the company in the distress zone for bankruptcy distance, while the Piotroski F‑Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = -1.6716 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns; US cutoff -1.78 is not directly portable; this company is at the 76th percentile among Vietnamese peers, meaning 76% of peers show less aggressive accounting signals).
  • Year‑over‑year M‑Score change = -0.38 (measures change in the composite manipulation signal; a negative move from prior year toward the cutoff; consecutive-year M‑Scores have low autocorrelation, so this is a secondary cue).
  • DSRI = 0.5391 (days‑sales‑in‑receivables index; values <1 suggest receivables decreasing relative to sales, but in combination with other items this needs context).
  • GMI = 1.2630 (gross margin index; >1 indicates gross margins deteriorated year‑over‑year, which can pressure management incentives).
  • DEPI = 1.6393 (depreciation index; >1 indicates slower depreciation (i.e., lower depreciation expense) relative to prior year, which can inflate earnings).
  • AQI = 1.1235 (asset quality index; >1 indicates an increase in non‑current or intangible assets relative to total assets, which can signal capitalization of costs or growth in non‑trade receivables).
  • TATA = 0.1429 (total accruals to assets; positive accruals of 14.29% of assets indicate earnings increasingly driven by accruals rather than cash).
  • Earnings Quality Score = 32.7/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 (measures the firm’s ability to convert accruals to cash and stability of margins; very low scores are a concern for earnings sustainability).
  • Revenue quality = 3.8/100 (measures persistence and cash backing of reported revenue; a very low score signals weak quality of reported revenue).
  • Altman Z‑Score = 0.37 (measures bankruptcy distance using balance‑sheet ratios; 0.37 is in the distress zone).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 43.3% of total assets (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; this line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables and is unusually large).
  • Director‑deal registrations (2025‑10‑30 to 2026‑10‑30): 2 sale registrations for 24,819,166 shares, net registered volume = -48.20% of shares outstanding (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange; volumes can repeat when the same holder re‑registers).
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures aging, collectibility and alignment of receivables with trade activity; this highest score indicates recorded receivables that pass the quality checks used in the metric).
  • SGAI = 0.1780 (sales, general & admin index; a number significantly <1 can indicate relatively lower SGA expense pressure versus prior year).
  • LVGI = 0.7942 (leverage index; <1 can indicate leverage decreased or improved relative to prior year).
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamentals; a 5 is neutral — not clearly weak across the standard fundamental checks).
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive, and statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met (these are factual checks of the published statements).
Ownership Risk

Ownership is moderately concentrated: the largest individual, Lê Hà Giang, holds 20.7%. Other named holders are much smaller (next largest 2.5%, 2.1% by BSI, 1.8%, 1.0%). Director‑deal registrations show insiders/related persons registered significant sales (net registered -48.20% of shares outstanding), noting registrations are intentions filed with the exchange and are not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 note(s) that detail receivables and prepayments to the line items 'Receivables outside the trade cycle' to confirm composition (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long‑term receivables) and amounts that sum to 43.3% of total assets.
  • Reconcile the depreciation policy and fixed‑asset schedules with DEPI = 1.6393: check the notes on useful lives, depreciation methods and any changes in estimates or fair‑value adjustments in FY2025.
  • Compare the consolidated cash‑flow from operations to reported profit and the TATA calculation (total accruals to assets = 0.1429) to see how much of profit is non‑cash accruals versus cash generation.
  • Examine related‑party schedules and the loans/advance disclosures for FY2025 to see whether large balances are included in the non‑trade receivables or prepayments and to confirm terms and recoverability.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.37
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.56
Negative
Composite
64
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden1.07×Op. Margin0.39×Turnover0.03×Leverage2.03=ROE2.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−10.7%
Volatility
38.2%
Max Drawdown
−41.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.97P/E
P/B
0.29
P/S
4.11
ROE
3.0%
ROA
1.5%
EPS
397
BVPS
13.545
Gross Margin
1.7%
Net Margin
41.3%
D/E
0.50
Current Ratio
1.14
Rev Growth
+10.4%
Profit Growth
+134.1%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
51.5M
Charter Capital
515B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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