Back to Dashboard

TEG

Công ty Cổ phần Trường Thành Energy Group

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
6.040
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.6%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
6.040
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.045

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
  • A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.756
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.42%
Ke
10.42%
x
E/(D+E)
87.28%
+
Kd(1-t)
1.66%
x
D/(D+E)
12.72%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→6.040
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.045
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)12.00%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow17.1 tỷone off strip ratio: 0.45

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
10.0%6.7356.7356.7356.7356.735
11.0%6.0056.0056.0056.0776.735
12.0%6.0056.0056.0056.0056.005
13.0%6.0056.0056.0056.0056.005
14.0%6.0056.0056.0056.0056.005
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·8678754295525462112291321206049220
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·10325764871334130.920
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2630.40000000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·7357543504934201281769240594500.00
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·961013463953320000.00
Net Inventories
·1075351505973452746000.010.01
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1075351505973452746000.010.01
Other current assets
·133224220.040.10.060.0810
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000010
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·980858739681678354304221158138111190
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·75300.000.30.20.25547404000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·75300.000.30.20.25547404000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·767819192524211100
Tangible fixed assets
·767819182424211100
Leased assets
·0000.30.40.60000000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·632614669600623289232174649569190
Investments in associate companies
·213162205332017923110819786900
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·4304604675706041100.46646180190
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−10−7−3−4−0.6−0.0300−0.5−0.4−0.0100
Other non-current assets
·2111826313641414520.200
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·210.50.91.00.20.50.30.320.200
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,8471,7331,1681,2341,2255655333532781981592120
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·34425519127230611610795521030.30.01
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·16910218719823511210195521020.30.01
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·87631257571321222260.30.300
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·551357259613000.000
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·17515347371560.400.20.600
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·17415247371560.400.20.600
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1,5031,4789779629184494262582261881572120
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,5031,4789779629184494262582261881572120
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1,2081,2087286566563243241941801501502020
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·14211310210766362955383871.0−0.2
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,8471,7331,1681,2341,2255655333532781981592120
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·166116901775520200.30.316600
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1,2081,2087286566563243241941801501502020
Good will (Bn. VND)
·010182530364140450000
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·1501541441951938973980000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
31
Weak
Accrual Quality
96
Cash Conversion
28
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M −0.02 · 93rd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.99
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
5.218
GMI
0.157
AQI
0.996
SGI
0.187
DEPI
4.169
SGAI
4.307
TATA
0.010
LVGI
1.268

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−3.647th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
18.2%89th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows multiple accounting signals consistent with aggressive revenue/expense timing and receivable build-up: a Beneish M-Score of -0.0179 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of +0.99. Key component drivers include an extremely high DSRI of 5.2184 and large SGAI (4.3065) and DEPI (4.1687). Offsetting strengths include a high accruals-quality subscore (96.2/100) and a low total-accruals-to-assets ratio (TATA = 0.0096).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -0.0179 (93rd percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +0.99) — the M-Score is a statistical indicator of likely earnings manipulation tendencies (the Vietnam percentile and the recent upward move indicate this company is more 'aggressive' on these metrics than most local peers, though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam).
  • DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 5.2184 — measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; a very large reading suggests receivables and revenue recognition have moved out of line.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 18.2% of total assets (89th percentile) — this line (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) is large relative to peers and consistent with the DSRI signal.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 4.3065 — measures SG&A growth relative to sales; a high value implies SG&A is growing much faster than sales, which can signal cost capitalization or timing shifts in expense recognition.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 4.1687 — measures whether depreciation expense is declining relative to gross PPE (values >1 suggest slower depreciation or asset-life extension), which can inflate earnings.
  • Receivables-quality score = 0.0/100 and Revenue-quality score = 0.0/100 — the earnings-quality component scores indicate very weak quality for receivables and revenue recognition.
  • Cash-conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -3.64 (7th percentile) — profit is not converting to cash; low percentile shows this is poor versus Vietnamese peers.
  • Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 14 sale registrations across 5 registrants totalling 12,648,689 shares (three registrations without a volume) and 0 purchase registrations — these are registered intentions to trade disclosed to the exchange.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals-quality score = 96.2/100 and TATA = 0.0096 — total accruals relative to assets are small and the accruals-quality component is strong, indicating reported earnings are not driven by unusually large total accrual levels.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.9963 — this index (measuring changes in non-current and other non-operating assets) is close to 1, suggesting no major deterioration in asset composition by this metric.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.1571 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.1869 — GMI well below 1 implies gross margin has not deteriorated (per the index definition), and SGI <1 shows sales declined rather than rapidly expanding (both can counter some manipulation hypotheses based on aggressive growth).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 — a neutral fundamental score (neither strongly improving nor collapsing on the nine fundamental signals).
  • Altman Z-Score = 2.10 — within the 'grey zone' for bankruptcy risk distance; this is not a clear distress signal but indicates limited buffer under the classical Z model.
  • Accumulated losses: none, and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — the statutory balance-sheet tests for forced delisting under Decree 155/2020 (amended) are not met.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: top shareholder Công ty Cổ phần Tập Đoàn Trường Thành Việt Nam holds 23.8%, with other institutions (Mernus 9.0%, Sermsang Power 5.0%, SHS 3.7%) and one individual (Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hà 7.5%) among the largest holders. The top holder appears to be a corporate group, implying potential group influence over accounting and related-party transactions. Director registrations show only sale intentions in the past year.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 'Receivables and other receivables' and 'Loans and advances to related parties' lines in the FY2025 notes to the balance-sheet schedule to reconcile the 18.2% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile operating cash flows to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and the 'Reconciliation of profit (loss) to cash flows from operating activities' note to verify drivers of the -3.64 three-year cash-conversion ratio.
  • Inspect the depreciation policy and fixed-asset useful-life disclosures (PPE note) and any changes in depreciation methods or useful lives to assess the DEPI = 4.1687 signal.
  • Review the revenue-recognition policies and detailed revenue by customer or by contract note (and the aging schedule of receivables) to evaluate the DSRI = 5.2184 and the receivables-quality score of 0.
  • Check the related-party transactions and balances note (including prepayments to suppliers and loans receivable) for concentrations, terms, and whether the large non-trade receivables are with group entities or related parties.
  • Examine the director/insider dealings disclosure schedules on the exchange site for the 14 sale registrations to see registrant names, registered volumes (where provided), and whether any were subsequently amended or executed (registrations are intentions, not confirmed trades).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.10
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.29
Negative
Composite
44
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.88×Interest Burden1.11×Op. Margin0.50×Turnover0.03×Leverage1.23=ROE1.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
−7.0%
Volatility
29.8%
Max Drawdown
−19.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
32.67P/E
P/B
0.54
P/S
13.07
ROE
1.7%
ROA
1.2%
EPS
185
BVPS
11.201
Gross Margin
41.6%
Net Margin
48.6%
D/E
0.17
Current Ratio
5.14
Rev Growth
−81.3%
Profit Growth
+350.2%
EV/EBITDA
90.15
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
121M
Charter Capital
1,208B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →