Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.040
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.045
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −3.647th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 18.2%89th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals consistent with aggressive revenue/expense timing and receivable build-up: a Beneish M-Score of -0.0179 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of +0.99. Key component drivers include an extremely high DSRI of 5.2184 and large SGAI (4.3065) and DEPI (4.1687). Offsetting strengths include a high accruals-quality subscore (96.2/100) and a low total-accruals-to-assets ratio (TATA = 0.0096).
- Beneish M-Score -0.0179 (93rd percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +0.99) — the M-Score is a statistical indicator of likely earnings manipulation tendencies (the Vietnam percentile and the recent upward move indicate this company is more 'aggressive' on these metrics than most local peers, though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam).
- DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 5.2184 — measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; a very large reading suggests receivables and revenue recognition have moved out of line.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 18.2% of total assets (89th percentile) — this line (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) is large relative to peers and consistent with the DSRI signal.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 4.3065 — measures SG&A growth relative to sales; a high value implies SG&A is growing much faster than sales, which can signal cost capitalization or timing shifts in expense recognition.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 4.1687 — measures whether depreciation expense is declining relative to gross PPE (values >1 suggest slower depreciation or asset-life extension), which can inflate earnings.
- Receivables-quality score = 0.0/100 and Revenue-quality score = 0.0/100 — the earnings-quality component scores indicate very weak quality for receivables and revenue recognition.
- Cash-conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -3.64 (7th percentile) — profit is not converting to cash; low percentile shows this is poor versus Vietnamese peers.
- Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 14 sale registrations across 5 registrants totalling 12,648,689 shares (three registrations without a volume) and 0 purchase registrations — these are registered intentions to trade disclosed to the exchange.
- Accruals-quality score = 96.2/100 and TATA = 0.0096 — total accruals relative to assets are small and the accruals-quality component is strong, indicating reported earnings are not driven by unusually large total accrual levels.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.9963 — this index (measuring changes in non-current and other non-operating assets) is close to 1, suggesting no major deterioration in asset composition by this metric.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.1571 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.1869 — GMI well below 1 implies gross margin has not deteriorated (per the index definition), and SGI <1 shows sales declined rather than rapidly expanding (both can counter some manipulation hypotheses based on aggressive growth).
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 — a neutral fundamental score (neither strongly improving nor collapsing on the nine fundamental signals).
- Altman Z-Score = 2.10 — within the 'grey zone' for bankruptcy risk distance; this is not a clear distress signal but indicates limited buffer under the classical Z model.
- Accumulated losses: none, and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — the statutory balance-sheet tests for forced delisting under Decree 155/2020 (amended) are not met.
Ownership is concentrated: top shareholder Công ty Cổ phần Tập Đoàn Trường Thành Việt Nam holds 23.8%, with other institutions (Mernus 9.0%, Sermsang Power 5.0%, SHS 3.7%) and one individual (Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hà 7.5%) among the largest holders. The top holder appears to be a corporate group, implying potential group influence over accounting and related-party transactions. Director registrations show only sale intentions in the past year.
- Compare the 'Receivables and other receivables' and 'Loans and advances to related parties' lines in the FY2025 notes to the balance-sheet schedule to reconcile the 18.2% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flows to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and the 'Reconciliation of profit (loss) to cash flows from operating activities' note to verify drivers of the -3.64 three-year cash-conversion ratio.
- Inspect the depreciation policy and fixed-asset useful-life disclosures (PPE note) and any changes in depreciation methods or useful lives to assess the DEPI = 4.1687 signal.
- Review the revenue-recognition policies and detailed revenue by customer or by contract note (and the aging schedule of receivables) to evaluate the DSRI = 5.2184 and the receivables-quality score of 0.
- Check the related-party transactions and balances note (including prepayments to suppliers and loans receivable) for concentrations, terms, and whether the large non-trade receivables are with group entities or related parties.
- Examine the director/insider dealings disclosure schedules on the exchange site for the 14 sale registrations to see registrant names, registered volumes (where provided), and whether any were subsequently amended or executed (registrations are intentions, not confirmed trades).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.54
- P/S
- 13.07
- ROE
- 1.7%
- ROA
- 1.2%
- EPS
- 185
- BVPS
- 11.201
- Gross Margin
- 41.6%
- Net Margin
- 48.6%
- D/E
- 0.17
- Current Ratio
- 5.14
- Rev Growth
- −81.3%
- Profit Growth
- +350.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 90.15
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 121M
- Charter Capital
- 1,208B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT