TCD

Công ty cổ phần Tập đoàn Xây dựng Tracodi

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT

1.000

VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Close below calibrated value

+39.2%Calibrated value vs last close

−50%At last close+100%+500%

Last close (VND): 1.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 1.392

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

The model’s gap was capped before calibration.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026

Model reliability: Medium; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: 50.2%; 12 monthsHistorical calibration; Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.7percentage points

Construction12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.

Not an absolute return forecast.
Not a price target.
A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.

Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

Sector calibration span · percentage points

−11.7+5.7

The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
Actual returns can fall outside it.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 30 Oct 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details

Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→136.30B

Fair EV/EBITDA→23.3x

Years of data→7

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→1.000

Calibrated value vs last close→+39.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

1.392

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA136.3 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

TCD among Construction

Every stock in the sector, TCD marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is TCD. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Analysis

TCD: Persistent losses and exceptional non-trade receivables weigh on the investment case

The calibrated intrinsic value is VND 1,392 versus the last close of VND 1,000, a calibrated gap of 39.2% that is illustrative and not a forecast return.

Business Overview

Công ty cổ phần Tập đoàn Xây dựng Tracodi operates in construction and building materials and is listed on UPCOM. Revenue declined from VND 1,784.5 bn in 2023 to VND 1,085.7 bn in 2025. The latest reported revenue growth was -35.0% year on year, while the latest gross margin was 32.1% but EBIT margin was -11.2%, indicating that gross profit has not translated into operating profitability.

Bamboo Capital (BCG) holds 43.9% of TCD, making group relationships and the financial condition of the controlling shareholder relevant to assessing governance and funding risk. The available data do not detail project mix, backlog, or contract counterparties, limiting assessment of execution visibility. TCD is on UPCOM; the supplied listing-cancellation tests therefore provide context but do not imply an exchange decision.

Key points

The central concern is the sharp deterioration in earnings: TCD moved from net profit of VND 121.6 bn in 2023 to losses of VND 1,467.2 bn in 2024 and VND 438.1 bn in 2025. ROE was -22.5%, ROA -5.7%, and EPS -VND 1,305 in the latest ratios. The 2025 loss was smaller than the prior-year loss, but two consecutive loss years and falling revenue leave the recovery path uncertain.

Asset quality warrants particular scrutiny. Receivables outside the trade cycle amounted to 56.0% of assets, at the 98.9th percentile versus Vietnamese peers. Total assets declined from VND 9,181.3 bn in 2023 to VND 7,503.7 bn in 2025. Debt/equity was 0.82, but the data do not provide operating cash flow or total equity by year, so cash generation and balance-sheet headroom cannot be independently assessed from the supplied figures.

The calibrated intrinsic value of VND 1,392 compares with the VND 1,000 last close, but this is an illustrative estimate from an earlier back-test version, not a forecast, validated fair value, or evidence of mispricing. Persistent losses also make a mid-cycle EBITDA-based comparison especially sensitive to assumptions about normalization. No validated track record, model reliability assessment, or directional outperformance probability is supplied.

Valuation Commentary

The supplied calibrated intrinsic value uses EV/EBITDA on mid-cycle EBITDA. It is an illustrative estimate from an earlier version of the back-test and should not be interpreted as a forecast or validated price target.

Calibrated intrinsic value: VND 1,392 per share, compared with the last close of VND 1,000 as of 2026-10-30.
The supplied calibrated gap is 39.2%; it is not a forecast return and does not establish mispricing or an investment opportunity.
The valuation uses mid-cycle EBITDA despite reported net losses in 2024 and 2025 and an EBIT margin of -11.2%, making the normalization assumption important.
Reported EV/EBITDA is 53.5x, while P/B is 0.20x; the contrast reflects both weak current earnings and a low market valuation relative to book value, not a resolution of the underlying asset-quality questions.

The calibrated comparison is illustrative only and does not establish expected returns. Given persistent losses and the unusually high share of receivables outside the trade cycle, uncertainty around recoverability and normalized earnings is material. No validated track record, model reliability assessment, or outperformance probability is available for this estimate.

Points in favour

Gross margin was 32.1%, providing a gross-profit base that could support recovery if revenue and operating cost absorption improve.
The 2025 net loss of VND 438.1 bn was smaller than the VND 1,467.2 bn loss in 2024, although it remained a substantial loss.
P/B of 0.20x and P/S of 0.31x indicate a low market valuation against reported book value and sales, though neither multiple resolves asset recoverability.
Accumulated losses were 0.56x paid-in capital, below the supplied statutory threshold of more than 1x.

Points against

Revenue fell from VND 1,784.5 bn in 2023 to VND 1,085.7 bn in 2025; the latest reported year-on-year change was -35.0%.
TCD recorded net losses in both 2024 and 2025, with latest ROE of -22.5%, ROA of -5.7%, and negative EPS of -VND 1,305.
Receivables outside the trade cycle were 56.0% of assets, at the 98.9th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, creating significant recoverability and cash-conversion uncertainty.
EV/EBITDA was 53.5x despite negative EBIT margin, underscoring the sensitivity of the calibrated mid-cycle EBITDA approach to earnings normalization assumptions.

Sector Context

Construction earnings are sensitive to project timing, customer collections, input costs, and the ability to convert reported margins into cash. For TCD, the decline in revenue and the large balance of receivables outside the trade cycle make contract-level collection and asset recoverability more decision-useful than headline gross margin alone. The supplied data do not include backlog, operating cash flow, or project-level detail, limiting peer and cycle analysis.

Vietnamese accounting and market context matters: VAS financial statements and project-related receivables require careful review of counterparties, recoverability, and timing. Land-use rights can be material in real-estate projects, but no TCD land-rights detail is supplied here, so their value or liquidity cannot be assumed. SBV credit-growth quotas are primarily relevant to bank lending capacity rather than a direct construction-sector operating metric; no specific credit access or quota exposure is provided for TCD. TCD is not identified as an SOE, so SOE payout mandates are not a relevant assumption. The supplied data provide no foreign ownership room information.

Risk Factors

Earnings recovery risk: revenue declined to VND 1,085.7 bn in 2025 from VND 1,784.5 bn in 2023, and the company remained loss-making in 2025.
Receivables recoverability: receivables outside the trade cycle were 56.0% of assets and ranked at the 98.9th percentile versus Vietnamese peers.
Cash-flow visibility: three-year operating cash flow to net profit is unavailable, so reported earnings cannot be checked against cash generation from the supplied data.
Balance-sheet transparency: total equity by year is not supplied; debt/equity of 0.82 alone is insufficient to establish liquidity or refinancing headroom.
Parent and group exposure: BCG owns 43.9% of TCD, and the supplied data do not quantify related-party transactions, funding dependence, or contingent exposures.
Valuation sensitivity: the calibrated estimate relies on mid-cycle EBITDA while recent reported results include two consecutive net-loss years and negative EBIT margin.
Distribution reliability: the reported dividend yield is 40.1% despite negative EPS and recent losses; the supplied data do not establish whether that yield reflects a sustainable cash distribution.

What could change the picture

Evidence of sustained revenue stabilization after the decline to VND 1,085.7 bn in 2025.
A return to positive operating and net profit, with improved margins from the latest EBIT margin of -11.2%.
Disclosures demonstrating collection or reclassification of the large receivables balance outside the trade cycle.
Improved disclosure of operating cash flow, project backlog, and the financial terms of material group or related-party exposures.

Forensic Assessment

A Beneish M-Score and risk level are unavailable, so no manipulation-risk conclusion can be drawn from an M-Score. The peer percentile is 17.5 and the year-on-year score change is 1.5446, but without the score itself these figures are not sufficient to infer the direction or level of accounting risk. The clearer forensic concerns are earnings quality of 40.3/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle equal to 56.0% of assets, at the 98.9th percentile versus Vietnamese peers. Ownership is concentrated, with BCG holding 43.9%; insider and related-person trade-registration counts were zero in the supplied 12-month window, which does not establish that no trades occurred outside the registration data.

Accumulated losses were 0.56x paid-in capital, below the more-than-1x statutory test. TCD had net losses in two consecutive years, not each of the latest three years, because 2023 was profitable. Equity without minority interest was not negative. Accordingly, none of the three supplied statutory tests is met on the data provided; these tests do not apply to UPCOM in the same way as the cited HOSE/HNX cancellation rule.

Track Record

No historical hit rate or validated track record is supplied for the calibrated estimate. The provided calibrated value is an illustrative estimate from an earlier back-test version, and there is no validated track record for this estimate. No model reliability or outperformance probability is available, so the calibrated gap should not be treated as evidence of likely future performance.

Written by a language model on 2026-10-30 from this page’s own model outputs and financial statements, and may quote figures from that date. Descriptive analysis, not investment advice — no buy, sell or hold recommendation is given or implied.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	5,900	5,126	6,302	6,125	3,784	4,421	731	854	807	872	164	122	133
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	78	79	300	207	290	165	29	28	86	43	18	5	4
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	232	2	103	16	981	14	14	7	29	227	2	1	12
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	4,827	4,398	5,373	5,438	1,999	3,453	458	675	555	546	113	51	58
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	3,521	3,528	3,068	2,589	866	480	139	162	29	21	10	5	6
Net Inventories	·	735	612	506	457	503	737	204	116	120	55	30	44	44
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	738	617	508	457	503	737	204	116	120	55	30	44	44
Other current assets	·	28	34	20	7	10	53	27	28	18	1	1	21	16
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	14
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	1,604	2,712	2,879	3,718	1,986	1,818	1,204	847	346	1,578	75	31	43
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	492	1,418	1,231	1,534	654	720	445	442	1	1	1	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	678	1,276	1,085	1,534	646	720	445	442	1	1	1	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	34	59	76	50	59	62	134	57	58	60	27	5	4
Tangible fixed assets	·	21	37	55	44	51	57	129	52	57	60	27	2	3
Leased assets	·	12	22	20	6	8	4	5	4	0	0	0	0	0
Intagible fixed assets	·	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.2	0.08	0.1	0.1
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	1,043	1,198	1,534	2,118	1,246	1,017	611	331	272	1,502	33	23	35
Investments in associate companies	·	1,026	1,080	1,083	1,567	1,086	812	410	238	254	62	34	24	36
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	20	20	454	451	60	103	98	93	19	1,441	0.3	0	0
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−3	−3	−2	0	0	0	0	0	0	−1	−1	−1	−1
Other non-current assets	·	35	37	38	15	27	19	12	15	13	11	11	4	4
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	35	37	38	15	27	19	12	15	13	11	11	2	3
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	7,504	7,837	9,181	9,842	5,770	6,239	1,935	1,701	1,153	2,449	240	153	176
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	5,655	5,565	5,394	6,223	4,500	5,578	1,383	1,211	720	2,067	127	75	94
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	4,422	4,313	4,360	4,377	3,376	4,340	1,179	1,129	642	322	111	71	83
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	419	890	1,067	1,185	603	994	236	99	157	120	5	3	6
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	2,495	2,530	2,169	2,214	1,791	1,124	481	585	15	19	17	20	22
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	1,234	1,253	1,034	1,846	1,124	1,238	203	81	78	1,744	16	4	11
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	1,099	1,131	1,029	1,476	40	72	79	80	5	8	6	4	11
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	1,848	2,272	3,787	3,619	1,269	661	553	490	434	383	113	78	82
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	1,848	2,272	3,787	3,619	1,269	661	553	490	434	383	113	78	82
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	3,358	3,358	2,827	2,444	872	473	423	382	344	325	79	79	79
Other Reserves	·	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.9	0	0	0
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.4	0
Other Reserves	·	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0	0	0	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	−1,882	−1,431	277	553	349	144	98	88	68	38	18	−1	4
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	7,504	7,837	9,181	9,842	5,770	6,239	1,935	1,701	1,153	2,449	240	153	176
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	5	8	3	0	8	0	0	0	0
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Convertible bonds (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	3,358	3,358	2,827	2,444	872	473	423	382	344	325	79	79	79
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	126	98	132	71	47	43	30	19	20	18	17	0	0

◆vnvalue Research Note

Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.92 · 18th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +1.54

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.173

GMI

0.637

AQI

0.618

SGI

0.935

DEPI

0.894

SGAI

0.421

TATA

−0.057

LVGI

1.059

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 56.0%99th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: 0.56×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 2
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

−0.01

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−2.70

Negative

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✗Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden1.17×Interest Burden1.23×Op. Margin−0.23×Turnover0.14×Leverage4.06=ROE−19.3%

Price Risk

Momentum

−49.4%

Volatility

87.1%

Max Drawdown

−84.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

—P/E

P/B: 0.19
P/S: 0.31
ROE: −22.5%
ROA: −5.7%
EPS: −1.305
BVPS: 5.128
Gross Margin: 32.1%
Net Margin: −32.8%
D/E: 0.82
Current Ratio: 1.33
EV/EBITDA: —
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 336M
Charter Capital: 3,358B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3): Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry: Xây dựng
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for TCD. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Bamboo Capital

BCG

43.9%

147M

2026-06-30

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Tiên Phong

ORS

4.7%

10.5M

2022-04-25

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Sài Gòn - Hà Nội

SHS

4.5%

10.0M

2022-04-25

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Dịch vụ Helios

Inst

3.9%

9.5M

2022-12-31

Nguyễn Hồ Nam

Indiv

3.7%

10.5M

2023-06-09

Nguyễn Thanh Hùng

Indiv

1.7%

5.9M

2026-06-30

Bùi Thiện Phương Đông

Indiv

0.4%

1.2M

2024-06-30

Huỳnh Thị Kim Tuyến

Indiv

0.4%

1.2M

2025-06-30

Nguyễn Thị Ánh Tuyết

Indiv

0.3%

881,379

2024-12-31

Bùi Thành Lâm

Indiv

0.1%

348,768

2022-12-31

Nguyễn Thị Thùy Linh

Indiv

0.1%

233,100

2022-01-10

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thanh Hùng1.7%

Chairman of Management Board

Nguyễn Văn Bắc

Deputy General Director of Finance

Lê Huỳnh Thương Minh

Deputy General Director of Construction

Top connections

BCR2 links BGE47.7%DTG2 links PVH14.8%VRC14.5%KTL14.4%PLA9.8%RCC9.7%PHC4.9%CTG4.7%PLP4.5%BCG4.5%

Listed group

BCGCông ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Bamboo Capital
Holds 20% or more
43.9%
2026-06-30

Also held by BCG:BCR BGE DTG

Read from the shareholder lists: control above 50% of the shares (VAS 25), significant influence at 20% or more (VAS 07). Each date is that of the disclosure.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Also note

12-month sector-relative outlook

Valuation Breakdown

TCD among Construction

Analysis

Business Overview

Key points

Valuation Commentary

Points in favour

Points against

Sector Context

Risk Factors

What could change the picture

Forensic Assessment

Track Record

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Listed group

Ownership network

Listed group

TCD among Construction