Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 7.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.439
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 3.2586th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 13.5%86th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals of aggressive revenue/receivables recognition: a Beneish M-Score of 0.5322 (95th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +1.73) driven by a very high DSRI (5.3495) and elevated AQI (2.5388). Earnings-quality sub-scores are mixed: accruals and cash-conversion score 100/100 but receivables quality and revenue quality score 0/100; the Altman Z-Score is 0.87 (distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = 0.5322 (measures probability of earnings manipulation patterns; the company ranks in the 95th percentile among Vietnamese peers and the M-Score increased by +1.73 year-over-year).
- DSRI = 5.3495 (Days-Sales-in-Receivables Index; a very large value indicating receivables and revenue growth are unusually decoupled).
- AQI = 2.5388 (Asset Quality Index; elevated value suggesting rising non-current or other atypical asset balances such as capitalized costs, prepayments or long-term receivables).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 13.5% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; at the 86th percentile among VN non-financials).
- Earnings-quality: Receivables quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100 (these scores indicate weak evidence that reported revenue and receivables convert into sustainable, high-quality earnings).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 3.25 (86th percentile; low cash conversion indicates profit is not being converted into operating cash flow).
- Altman Z-Score = 0.87 (puts the company in the 'distress' zone for bankruptcy-distance metrics; Z-Score synthesizes liquidity, profitability and leverage).
- SGAI = 1.6297 and GMI = 1.1772 (SG&A Index and Gross Margin Index above 1 indicate rising SG&A expense pressure and deteriorating gross margins relative to prior period).
- TATA = -0.1558 (Total Accruals to Total Assets is negative, which in isolation can reflect accrual management patterns; interpret together with other signals).
- Accruals quality = 100/100 (this metric measures the extent that accruals, as estimated from the balance sheet and cash flow statement, do not appear to be the primary driver of reported profit).
- Cash conversion score = 100/100 (despite the three-year cash-conversion ratio being poor in the peer ranking, the earnings-quality module flags short-term accrual behaviour as high quality — this is a mixed signal requiring closer reading of timing).
- LVGI = 1.0755 (Leverage/Voluntary Growth Index modestly above 1; not an extreme leverage-growth mismatch).
- No accumulated losses and positive owner's equity (undistributed earnings are not negative; statutory accumulated-loss tests in the listed-market rules are not triggered in UPCoM).
Ownership is moderately concentrated: an individual, Lê Quốc Bình, holds 19.4% and a state-owned enterprise, Tổng Công ty Đầu tư và phát triển nhà Hà Nội, holds 16.3%; several small insiders and a brokerage (SHS) hold the next largest stakes. Director-deal disclosures show one sale registration (124,229 shares; net registered volume -0.82% of shares outstanding) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not confirmed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 breakdown of trade receivables, loans receivable and other receivables in the notes to the balance sheet to quantify the 13.5% of total assets labelled 'receivables outside the trade cycle.'
- Reconcile profit before tax and operating cash flow in the cash flow statement and the notes: reproduce the three-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit) to confirm the 3.25 figure and identify major non-cash items.
- Inspect related-party disclosures and the note on prepayments/advances: identify any large prepayments to suppliers, loans to related parties or long-term receivables that feed the AQI and DSRI signals.
- Review the directors' and large-holders' registration filings on the exchange (the disclosure that lists the 124,229-share sale registration) and the share register/note to confirm whether the registered volumes correspond to repeated registrations by the same holder.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.39
- P/S
- 0.89
- ROE
- 0.9%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- EPS
- 162
- BVPS
- 18.168
- Gross Margin
- 19.0%
- Net Margin
- 3.9%
- D/E
- 0.43
- Current Ratio
- 1.96
- Rev Growth
- −82.9%
- Profit Growth
- −97.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 18.46
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 15.1M
- Charter Capital
- 151B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT