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HD6

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển nhà số 6 Hà Nội

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnUPCOMCT
7.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+34.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
7.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.439

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.713
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.23%
Ke
10.23%
x
E/(D+E)
83.18%
+
Kd(1-t)
4.16%
x
D/(D+E)
16.82%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.11%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→7.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+34.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.439
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)12.00%high risk: yes
Growth rate6.11%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow33.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth3.1%4.6%6.1%7.6%9.1%
10.0%9.5789.5789.5789.5789.891
11.0%9.5789.5789.5789.5789.578
12.0%9.4399.4399.5579.5789.578
13.0%9.4399.4399.4399.4399.557
14.0%9.4399.4399.4399.4399.439
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4356094294616874862693264616311,010888610
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·61687553176734301013542719
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.53342471992550000036
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·356497254232351313160152204269432390189
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·539236591008536324345727873
Net Inventories
·1091751546466139247346525470348
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1091751546466139247346525470348
Other current assets
·8240796617460.0130.20.0020
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000020
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·415201833940688413408367691749799861475
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00101010210000000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00101010200000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·7674404341069111491216
Tangible fixed assets
·76744043469111491216
Intagible fixed assets
·000000100000000
Investment in properties
·29289999205200
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·10.6555642959833309090
Investment in joint ventures
·0000000000056
Investments in associate companies
·10.6555676263776059
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000035353728252525
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·0000000−2−2−2−200
Other non-current assets
·5681011143200.070044
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·10.0711231100.070044
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·8508101,2621,4021,3758996776931,1521,3811,8091,7491,086
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·4444059531,1011,1187044625057029461,3111,314656
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·222301808945935319198210308335556403409
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·56791446761396779779912711883
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·1273880324326625383735
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·221104145156184385264295395611756910247
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·12033838541087584578229152
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·407405309300257195216188449435497435430
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·407405309300257195216188449435497435430
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·151151151144144144144144144144808080
Other Reserves
·000000002532532862860
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·2121171610181716149615546
Other Reserves
·2222210.70.70.200014
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·100976769460.07182336275825
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·8508101,2621,4021,3758996776931,1521,3811,8091,7491,086
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·62795648540041525352520
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000.40000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·151151151144144144144144144144808080
Good will (Bn. VND)
·467810110000000
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·132131696852293310.60.40.400

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
55
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
33
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M 0.53 · 95th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.73
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
5.349
GMI
1.177
AQI
2.539
SGI
0.134
DEPI
0.389
SGAI
1.630
TATA
−0.156
LVGI
1.075

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
3.2586th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
13.5%86th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows several accounting signals of aggressive revenue/receivables recognition: a Beneish M-Score of 0.5322 (95th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +1.73) driven by a very high DSRI (5.3495) and elevated AQI (2.5388). Earnings-quality sub-scores are mixed: accruals and cash-conversion score 100/100 but receivables quality and revenue quality score 0/100; the Altman Z-Score is 0.87 (distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 0.5322 (measures probability of earnings manipulation patterns; the company ranks in the 95th percentile among Vietnamese peers and the M-Score increased by +1.73 year-over-year).
  • DSRI = 5.3495 (Days-Sales-in-Receivables Index; a very large value indicating receivables and revenue growth are unusually decoupled).
  • AQI = 2.5388 (Asset Quality Index; elevated value suggesting rising non-current or other atypical asset balances such as capitalized costs, prepayments or long-term receivables).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 13.5% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; at the 86th percentile among VN non-financials).
  • Earnings-quality: Receivables quality = 0/100 and Revenue quality = 0/100 (these scores indicate weak evidence that reported revenue and receivables convert into sustainable, high-quality earnings).
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 3.25 (86th percentile; low cash conversion indicates profit is not being converted into operating cash flow).
  • Altman Z-Score = 0.87 (puts the company in the 'distress' zone for bankruptcy-distance metrics; Z-Score synthesizes liquidity, profitability and leverage).
  • SGAI = 1.6297 and GMI = 1.1772 (SG&A Index and Gross Margin Index above 1 indicate rising SG&A expense pressure and deteriorating gross margins relative to prior period).
  • TATA = -0.1558 (Total Accruals to Total Assets is negative, which in isolation can reflect accrual management patterns; interpret together with other signals).
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100/100 (this metric measures the extent that accruals, as estimated from the balance sheet and cash flow statement, do not appear to be the primary driver of reported profit).
  • Cash conversion score = 100/100 (despite the three-year cash-conversion ratio being poor in the peer ranking, the earnings-quality module flags short-term accrual behaviour as high quality — this is a mixed signal requiring closer reading of timing).
  • LVGI = 1.0755 (Leverage/Voluntary Growth Index modestly above 1; not an extreme leverage-growth mismatch).
  • No accumulated losses and positive owner's equity (undistributed earnings are not negative; statutory accumulated-loss tests in the listed-market rules are not triggered in UPCoM).
Ownership Risk

Ownership is moderately concentrated: an individual, Lê Quốc Bình, holds 19.4% and a state-owned enterprise, Tổng Công ty Đầu tư và phát triển nhà Hà Nội, holds 16.3%; several small insiders and a brokerage (SHS) hold the next largest stakes. Director-deal disclosures show one sale registration (124,229 shares; net registered volume -0.82% of shares outstanding) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not confirmed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 breakdown of trade receivables, loans receivable and other receivables in the notes to the balance sheet to quantify the 13.5% of total assets labelled 'receivables outside the trade cycle.'
  • Reconcile profit before tax and operating cash flow in the cash flow statement and the notes: reproduce the three-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit) to confirm the 3.25 figure and identify major non-cash items.
  • Inspect related-party disclosures and the note on prepayments/advances: identify any large prepayments to suppliers, loans to related parties or long-term receivables that feed the AQI and DSRI signals.
  • Review the directors' and large-holders' registration filings on the exchange (the disclosure that lists the 124,229-share sale registration) and the share register/note to confirm whether the registered volumes correspond to repeated registrations by the same holder.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.87
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−1.12
Negative
Composite
50
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.67×Interest Burden1.17×Op. Margin0.05×Turnover0.14×Leverage2.09=ROE1.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
−33.7%
Volatility
41.7%
Max Drawdown
−42.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
43.70P/E
P/B
0.39
P/S
0.89
ROE
0.9%
ROA
0.3%
EPS
162
BVPS
18.168
Gross Margin
19.0%
Net Margin
3.9%
D/E
0.43
Current Ratio
1.96
Rev Growth
−82.9%
Profit Growth
−97.2%
EV/EBITDA
18.46
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
15.1M
Charter Capital
151B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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