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SGC

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Sa Giang

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngSản xuất thực phẩmHNXCT
104.900
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+12.1%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
104.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
117.588

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
57.7%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.0percentage points
Consumer12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−9.5+5.5
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
97.42%
+
Kd(1-t)
7.67%
x
D/(D+E)
2.58%
=
WACC
11.01%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend10.73%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→71.62B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→104.900
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.1%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
117.588
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.01%
Growth rate10.73%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow71.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth7.7%9.2%10.7%12.2%13.7%
9.0%117.588122.492122.492122.492122.492
10.0%117.341117.588117.588120.304122.492
11.0%117.341117.341117.341117.588117.588
12.0%117.341117.341117.341117.341117.341
13.0%112.045112.045117.341117.341117.341
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2542861391521261261098892102827171···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·312121202232362023201214···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·08500600000000···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·116824749535544424450394034···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·2113441018441217451···
Net Inventories
·90896175574540362427221720···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·93906377574540362427221720···
Other current assets
·178107932432222···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000000.6···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3751651581191018468757065625760···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·310146119106907161636160615458···
Tangible fixed assets
·163146119106907161636160575154···
Intagible fixed assets
·1480.40.080.1000000344···
Other non-current assets
·21149139777440.30.21···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·171181286663300.21···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·629450297271226210177162161167144127130···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1351044460759257614351342919···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·110794057718753563846332919···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·132001431282533122616120···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·6626522243121···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·252544444555100···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·49334625321115111912010211911711099112···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·49334625321115111912010211911711099112···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·71717171717171717171717171···
Other Reserves
·000000000000291,290···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·161616161616161616161677···
Other Reserves
·291,290291,290291,290291,290291,290291,290291,290291,290291,290291,290291,290291,2900···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·376259166123643133143129221125···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·629450297271226210177162161167144127130···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·71717171717171717171717171···
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·29000000000000···

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
58
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
89
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
68
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.56 · 78th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.80
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.334
GMI
0.879
AQI
2.549
SGI
1.051
DEPI
1.706
SGAI
0.957
TATA
−0.019
LVGI
1.001

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.1552nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
3.3%58th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The accounting signals for SGC show a moderately elevated Beneish M-Score of -1.5641 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.80, indicating accounting behavior that is more aggressive than most Vietnamese companies and that has moved materially this year. Earnings-quality components are mixed: very high accruals quality (100/100) and strong cash conversion (89.2/100) but very weak receivables and revenue quality (0/100 each); solvency and distress metrics are comfortable (Altman Z-Score 7.99) and fundamentals are middling (Piotroski F-Score 6/9).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score: -1.5641, Vietnam peer percentile 78th — the score is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits high versus Vietnamese peers; the YoY change +0.80 shows a notable shift in the M-Score direction compared with the prior year.
  • DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3340 — measures whether receivables are rising faster than sales; a value above 1 can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.5494 — measures increases in asset components that are often subject to discretion (capitalized costs, other assets); a reading well above 1 suggests asset composition has become materially more aggressive.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.7064 — measures changes in depreciation rates; >1 indicates slower depreciation (i.e., lower depreciation expense relative to prior period), which can boost reported profits.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0187 — while the sign is negative (which reduces the M-Score contribution), it is small in magnitude and must be interpreted with the other indicators.
  • Receivables and revenue quality = 0.0/100 each — the Earnings Quality Score components show complete weakness on receivables and on revenue recognition quality.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.3% of total assets (58th percentile) — non-trade receivables / prepayments / loans represent a non-trivial portion of assets relative to peers and merit scrutiny.
  • Year-over-year movement: several Beneish components (AQI, DEPI, DSRI) moved enough to push the M-Score upward by +0.80, indicating the recent changes in accounting composition are the proximate driver of the elevated M-Score.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 — the model's accruals component indicates low abnormal accruals relative to peers, suggesting current-period accruals are not a primary concern.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 1.15 (52nd percentile) and Cash conversion score 89.2/100 — operating cash flow has been converting reported profit into cash at a broadly average-to-strong rate over three years.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0512 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.8790 — modest sales growth and an improving/strongening gross margin index (GMI < 1 indicates gross margin has not deteriorated) are supportive of earnings sustainability.
  • Altman Z-Score = 7.99 (safe zone) — the company is distant from the typical bankruptcy thresholds used in the Z-Score framework.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 — fundamentals are more positive than negative (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency metrics net to a neutral-to-favourable score).
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; 0 consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025 — the statutory balance-sheet signals of distress are absent.
Ownership Risk

Control is highly concentrated: Vĩnh Hoàn (VHC) holds 76.7%, indicating a dominant parent listed shareholder and strong group control. The next largest holders are two individuals at 10.2% and 4.0%; this concentrated ownership plus the presence of a majority-listed parent implies decisions and related-party transactions with the group are likely material.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the breakdown of 'Receivables' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet and notes to the related-party and other receivables schedules to quantify the 3.3% of total assets identified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile FY2023–FY2025 profit, operating cash flows and the three-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.15) using the consolidated cash-flow statement and the consolidated income statement to confirm cash conversion drivers.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation policy notes (useful lives, depreciation methods, changes in estimates) to understand the DEPI = 1.7064 signal and whether amortization/depreciation assumptions changed between years.
  • Review the notes on asset reclassifications, other long-term assets and capitalized costs to explain AQI = 2.5494 (which measures increases in discretionary asset categories) and any related-party disclosures tied to those assets.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
7.99
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.06
Negative
Composite
76
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.83×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.21×Turnover1.18×Leverage1.27=ROE26.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
+4.7%
Volatility
29.4%
Max Drawdown
−33.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.84P/E
P/B
1.62
P/S
1.01
ROE
31.8%
ROA
23.8%
EPS
17.993
BVPS
64.891
Gross Margin
30.1%
Net Margin
17.3%
D/E
0.03
Current Ratio
2.30
Rev Growth
+5.4%
Profit Growth
+28.1%
EV/EBITDA
4.47
Div Yield
1.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
7.1M
Charter Capital
71.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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