Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.562
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.8%55th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.56×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -2.4128 (44th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), with a year-over-year increase of +3.56, signalling a modest movement toward more aggressive accounting relative to peers but not breaching the US -1.78 benchmark. Earnings-quality is mixed: a high overall score 68.7/100 with very strong accruals quality (99.4/100) and revenue quality (100.0/100) but very weak margin quality (0.0/100) and low receivables quality (29.2/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.59 (in the distress zone), while the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9 (indicating generally strong fundamentals). Vietnamese statutory tests show no listing-cancellation triggers met; receivables outside the trade cycle are 2.8% of total assets (55th percentile).
- Beneish M-Score change +3.56 year-over-year: the M-Score moved closer to aggressive-accounting territory relative to last year (the absolute -2.4128 is below the US -1.78 cutoff but the YoY rise is a secondary cue).
- DSRI = 1.1541: Days Sales in Receivables Index above 1.0 measures growing receivables relative to sales, which can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
- DEPI = 1.4040: Depreciation Index > 1.0 indicates depreciation expense decreased relative to prior period (i.e., reported depreciation fell), which can inflate reported profits.
- Receivables quality = 29.2/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.8% of total assets (55th percentile): low receivables quality and a non-trivial proportion of receivables classified outside the trade cycle suggest collection, classification or related-party timing issues.
- Margin quality = 0.0/100: the metric measuring persistence and reliability of margins is at the lowest possible score, signalling volatile or non-sustainable margin drivers.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.59 (distress zone): the composite indicates limited distance to financial distress under the Z-Score model.
- Earnings Quality overall = 68.7/100 with Accruals quality = 99.4/100: very high accruals quality means reported earnings are supported by low discretionary accruals, reducing one common manipulation channel.
- Revenue quality = 100.0/100: revenue appears to be of high quality by the model's measures (consistent with recorded sales metrics).
- TATA = 0.0016: total accruals to total assets is very small, reinforcing the high accruals-quality score.
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9: multiple fundamental indicators (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency) are strong, which supports the company's operational signal despite the Z-Score and some accounting flags.
- AQI = 0.9957 and LVGI = 0.9965 (both close to 1): asset quality and gross-margin related indices show limited deterioration year-over-year by these specific Beneish components.
Shareholding is highly concentrated among individuals: Bùi Văn Hữu holds 33.4%, and four other individuals hold 11.7%, 10.5%, 10.0% and 9.1% respectively — together these five shareholders control 74.7% of shares. This indicates strong insider/family control; no director-deal registrations were supplied in the data provided (so none are reported here).
- Inspect the notes to the financial statements for the breakdown of receivables and 'receivables outside the trade cycle' to reconcile the 2.8% of total assets figure (look for prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables lines).
- Compare the company's depreciation policy note and the fixed-asset schedule to verify drivers of DEPI = 1.4040 (check for changes in useful lives, methods, or retrospective adjustments).
- Reconcile cash flow from operations versus net income in the cash flow statement to validate TATA = 0.0016 and the accruals-quality assessment (check the operating cash flows line and reconciliation schedule).
- Review the capital and accumulated-loss disclosures to confirm the accumulated losses = 0.56x paid-in capital and to verify the parent-net-profit (no net loss years reported) and the statement that owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.20
- P/S
- 0.18
- ROE
- 43.7%
- ROA
- 4.3%
- EPS
- 1.705
- BVPS
- 4.751
- Gross Margin
- 10.3%
- Net Margin
- 3.0%
- D/E
- 3.69
- Current Ratio
- 1.03
- Rev Growth
- −9.6%
- Profit Growth
- +119.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.80
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 36.9M
- Charter Capital
- 369B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất ô tô
- Company Type
- CT