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Công ty Cổ phần Công nghệ Sài Gòn Viễn Đông

VietnamConsumerBán lẻHOSECT
9.060
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+1.4%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
9.060
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.185

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Bán lẻ” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.530
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
9.43%
Ke
9.43%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→3.63B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.060
Calibrated value vs last close→+1.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.185
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow3.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 11.23

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
8.0%9.1859.1859.3239.6779.677
9.0%9.1859.1859.1859.1859.185
10.0%9.1859.1859.1859.1859.185
11.0%9.1859.1859.1859.1859.185
12.0%9.1859.1859.1859.1859.185
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·25653671494916182645485254
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.55250.3110.70.70.70.60.40.70.4
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000002452300
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·24603365493713131831294345
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.50.10.10.080.060.050.050.050.024490.06
Net Inventories
·0.0900000.060.090.42111587
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0.0900000.40.40.42111587
Other current assets
·0.40.010.000.010.01690,0000.040.000.10.010.40.100.7
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.040.1
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2281711991391371261261151031061077773
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·1302781181480.010.010.0100
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000000.010.010.0100
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·40.050.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.912224
Tangible fixed assets
·40.050.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.912224
Investment in properties
·101112131415151617181900
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·18015915911711010395898586865450
Investments in associate companies
·153139139979183595658585877
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·27202020202036342929295854
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000000−0.2−0.9−2−2−2−11−12
Other non-current assets
·210.30.60.30.0100.02000000
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·210.30.60.30.0100.02000000
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·253237235210185175143133129150154128127
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·17111110.40.81.026311316
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·17111110.40.81.0263179
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·00000000000.70.72
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.5000000000.6233
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0000000000057
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0000000000057
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·236235234208184174142132128124124115111
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·236235234208184174142132128124124115111
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·173173173151116116105105105105969696
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·5555555555544
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·535251485848271713918105
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·253237235210185175143133129150154128127
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·554133023140000000
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·13027811814800000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·173173173151116116105105105105969696

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
31
Weak
Accrual Quality
43
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.73 · 89th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −4.04
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.076
GMI
1.587
AQI
1.224
SGI
5.256
DEPI
4.885
SGAI
0.196
TATA
0.163
LVGI
10.000

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.1725th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
7.3%75th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows accounting signals that are mixed: a Beneish M-Score of -0.7269 (89th percentile among Vietnamese peers) and a year-over-year change of -4.04 indicate the company’s accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that the trajectory has moved materially year-on-year. At the same time, the Altman Z-Score is 7.40 (well inside the ‘safe’ zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 3/9; earnings-quality metrics are poor overall (30.8/100) with particularly low cash conversion and margin/revenue quality but a perfect receivables-quality subscore (100/100).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -0.7269 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to historical accounting patterns; value is above the US −1.78 threshold and in the 89th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, meaning this company’s pattern of the eight Beneish component ratios is more ‘aggressive’ than 89% of local peers).
  • M-Score year-over-year change = -4.04 (measures change in the M-Score versus prior year; a large change indicates a material shift in the accounting profile compared with the prior year).
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.5870 (measures deterioration in gross margin; >1 suggests gross margins declined and could create pressure to manage earnings).
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.2238 (measures increase in the proportion of non-current or ‘‘other’’ assets; >1 can signal capitalizing or reclassifying costs into assets rather than expensing).
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 4.8855 (measures changes in the reported rate of depreciation; large >1 suggests slower reported depreciation relative to prior year, which can inflate profit).
  • LVGI (Leverage Growth Index) = 10.0000 (measures growth in leverage; a large number indicates material increase in leverage on the balance sheet).
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1635 (16.35% of assets in accruals, measuring the extent of accrual-based earnings; elevated accruals reduce cash-basis support for reported profit).
  • Earnings-Quality composite = 30.8/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these measure cash support for profits, stability of margins and persistence/quality of revenue; zero scores indicate serious weakness on these fronts).
  • Cash-conversion (3-year OCF / net profit) = 0.17 (17%, 25th percentile among Vietnamese peers; low, meaning reported profit has not been converting into operating cash).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental changes; a low score indicates weak recent operating/financial improvements).
Positive Signals
  • Receivables-quality subscore = 100.0/100 (measures how much revenue/receivables look collectible and free of unusual items; indicates receivables-related metrics tested here look strong).
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 0.0761 (measures change in receivables relative to sales; a value well below 1 typically indicates receivables are not growing faster than sales—consistent with the strong receivables-quality score).
  • Altman Z-Score = 7.40 (measures distance from bankruptcy using balance-sheet and earnings items; 7.40 sits in the ‘safe’ zone, indicating low bankruptcy risk by that model).
  • No accumulated losses and no statutory loss-test triggers (the company’s retained earnings are positive and the audited statements do not meet the statutory tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended).
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: VID (Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Thương mại Viễn Đông) holds 33.3% (disclosed 2026-06-30), which under VAS indicates significant influence (≥20%). The remainder is owned by a mix of institutions and individuals (largest others: Giấy Toàn Lực 7.4%, Lê Thị Minh Giang 5.4%, an ‘america limited liability company’ 5.0%, Bùi Quang Minh 4.5%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set (registrations, when present, are declarations of intent recorded with the exchange rather than executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 notes: reconcile 'Receivables and other receivables' lines with the related-party and long-term receivables schedule to verify composition of the 7.3% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Inspect the cash-flow statement and the auditor’s notes for operating cash flow and the reconciling items to profit (note the 3-year operating cash flow / net profit = 0.17) to see which accruals or non-cash items are causing the low cash conversion.
  • Review the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note and the schedule of accumulated depreciation to understand the drivers of DEPI = 4.8855 (i.e., changes in estimated useful lives, additions, disposals or revaluations).
  • Examine related-party disclosures and the loans/advances to/from related parties note to assess whether any of the AQI = 1.2238 (asset-quality increase) or elevated accruals (TATA = 0.1635) are connected to intra-group balances or prepayments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
7.40
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.53
Negative
Composite
55
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.98×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin1.92×Turnover0.06×Leverage1.07=ROE11.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
−3.7%
Volatility
36.8%
Max Drawdown
−18.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.87P/E
P/B
0.67
P/S
10.99
ROE
11.4%
ROA
11.0%
EPS
1.551
BVPS
13.641
Gross Margin
38.3%
Net Margin
187.3%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
1.45
Rev Growth
+425.6%
Profit Growth
−2.5%
EV/EBITDA
60.92
Div Yield
16.5%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
17.3M
Charter Capital
173B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Bán lẻ
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ tiêu dùng chuyên ngành
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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