Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 701
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 50.5%99th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.69×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 4Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.3456 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.47, signalling accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese listed peers; key component extremes include DSRI 10.0000 and SGAI 10.0000 and TATA -0.3070. Earnings-quality indicators are weak overall (Earnings Quality Score 31.2/100) driven by zero scores on cash conversion, receivables quality, margin quality and low revenue quality (12.5/100); the Altman Z-Score is -1.77 (distress-zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score 1.3456 (96th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +1.47) — measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peers and prior year (note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not VN-calibrated).
- DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivable Index) = 10.0000 — measures unusually large growth in receivables relative to sales (extreme value vs peers).
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 10.0000 — measures disproportionate growth in SG&A relative to sales, consistent with aggressive expense recognition or reclassification.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.2742 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.2608 — changes in depreciation and leverage that can reflect accounting-policy or financing shifts affecting reported profit.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.3070 — large negative accruals measure (accrual-based earnings component) which can signal timing differences in income recognition or large non-cash adjustments.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 50.5% of total assets (99th percentile) — this measures the proportion of assets in prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables rather than normal trade receivables, a concentration that can impair revenue/receivable quality.
- Net loss at parent level for 4 consecutive years up to FY2025 and statements show losses in each of the latest 3 years — factual loss history relevant to statutory tests (see below).
- Accumulated losses = 0.69x paid-in capital — measures retained losses relative to contributed capital, indicating a substantial erosion of equity.
- Altman Z-Score = -1.77 (distress zone) — measures bankruptcy distance using balance-sheet and earnings proxies and is in the distress range for the firm.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 — measures that reported accruals are low or of high quality relative to assets in the scoring model.
- Earnings-quality composite provides a measurable profile (31.2/100) that separates specific weaknesses (cash conversion, receivables, margin, revenue) from strengths (accruals).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 — a neutral fundamentals score indicating mixed operational signals (neither strongly healthy nor strongly deteriorating on the 9-point F-Score checklist).
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — a balance-sheet fact indicating residual equity above zero despite accumulated losses.
Ownership is moderately concentrated: the largest individual shareholder, Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hương, holds 13.3%; the largest institutional holder is VIX (Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VIX) at 3.5%; remaining disclosed individuals hold small stakes. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set.
- Compare the 2025 schedule/note for receivables and prepayments to suppliers with the line items for trade receivables to confirm the composition of the 50.5% of assets 'receivables outside the trade cycle.'
- Inspect the related-party transactions note and loans/advances schedule to identify how much of the 'loans receivable' or long-term receivables are with related parties and the terms (maturities, interest, collateral).
- Reconcile the total accruals and cash-flow statement: compare cash from operations in FY2025 to profit before tax and the notes on non-cash adjustments to validate the TATA = -0.3070 result.
- Review the equity and retained earnings statements and the auditor’s report for the accumulated losses = 0.69x paid-in capital and the disclosures supporting four consecutive years of parent net losses (and the three-year loss disclosure relevant to statutory loss tests).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.15
- P/S
- 231.10
- ROE
- −29.6%
- ROA
- −26.6%
- EPS
- −1.130
- BVPS
- 3.255
- Gross Margin
- 40.4%
- Net Margin
- −52243.4%
- D/E
- 0.05
- Current Ratio
- 8.38
- Rev Growth
- −99.8%
- Profit Growth
- +44.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 69.3M
- Charter Capital
- 693B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT